Financial Times - 12.08.2026.pdf

金融时报

2026年8月12日 星期三

2026年金融时报英国版

中国零工经济爆炸式增长的隐忧

作者：余康平

净零不是邪教——这是唯一的解决方案

作者：郭玉海宇

叙利亚判决

阿萨德被判处死刑

阿提夫·纳吉布（Atif Najib），叙利亚前总统巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad）的表亲、前政治安全负责人，昨日在大马士革法庭的审判中与阿萨德一同被判处死刑，站在被告笼内受审。

此次判决是阿萨德及其核心圈子成员——包括其弟马希尔——自该家族结束长达五十年的统治20个月后，首次受到的法律制裁。

这位前独裁者在其政权被叛军推翻后逃往俄罗斯，其统治期间有50万人丧生，其中包括一名14岁男孩。他被判犯有包括预谋杀人、酷刑和任意拘留在内的多项罪行。

自政权垮台后，阿萨德及其家人在盟友弗拉基米尔·普京的庇护下，一直居住在莫斯科。

详见第6页叙利亚法庭报道

中国加强对汽车零部件供应商控制，欧洲汽车业警惕

北京自21世纪中期以来扩大布局 150笔投资多数未引起监管机构注意

参议员金 - 转移

康平余 - 伦敦

哈伯参议员 - 芝加哥

詹姆斯·金 - 布鲁塞尔

中国汽车零部件制造商已悄然加强对欧洲汽车供应链的控制，收购当地供应商，同时北京方面正努力扩大其在欧洲大陆的影响力，尽管其出口面临越来越大的阻力。

根据咨询公司荣鼎集团的数据，自21世纪中期以来，中国企业已对欧洲汽车零部件制造商进行了超过150笔投资，主要集中在德国和法国等关键汽车制造中心。

这些收购已引起欧盟政策制定者和汽车高管的警惕——双方均担心，中国可能很快凭借汽车出口的爆炸式增长，缩小汽车零部件行业版图。

一位欧盟官员将中国对该地区汽车行业的威胁描述为“欧洲十年来的挑战”。

“如果在不久的将来，前十大供应商中有两三家是中国企业，我不会感到惊讶，”总部位于巴黎的咨询公司Wall DeGood首席执行官塞巴斯蒂安·弗兰克表示。

早期收购得到了北京“走出去”战略的支持，该战略敦促中国企业全球化运营，并通过投资——尤其是对欧洲制造商的投资——获取关键外国技术。荣鼎集团的数据显示，这些欧洲汽车交易的规模在21世纪中期达到顶峰，其中最引人注目的是吉利对瑞典汽车制造商沃尔沃汽车的收购。

但北京的对外投资限制和贸易壁垒的上升意味着，过去十年中许多交易的规模都低于1亿欧元（€100mn）——这一规模过小，不足以触发欧洲监管机构的干预。

2024年，欧盟在对中国电动汽车制造商（包括比亚迪）进行国家补贴影响调查后，对其加征额外关税，叠加现有10%的汽车进口关税。

企业情报公司Snyzet的负责人法利·莫谢告诉FY，中国的实际所有权规模可能更大。该公司绘制的中国在德国控制的汽车资产中，“大约有四到五家是通过至少一个离岸中介持有，或涉及一家注册在德国、使用本地名称的控股公司”。

一位欧盟官员指出，中国在欧洲扩张采取了四管齐下的策略：增加出口、持股公司、建立合资企业，以及在欧盟和邻近国家（如塞尔维亚）自行建厂。

中国的交易可能大多未引起关注，但“我们仍将看到持续的大规模收购——这让许多[欧盟]政策制定者感到担忧”，荣鼎集团高级研究分析师阿尔芒·梅耶表示。

一位欧盟官员称，中国对该地区汽车行业的威胁是“欧洲十年来的挑战”。

法国最新计划实施本地含量规则，要求使用欧洲制造的汽车零部件和劳动力，这也进一步推动了中国企业在类似领域的投资。

“一家中国供应商收购公司是快速获得生产基地并获得‘欧盟制造’身份的高效方式，无需从零开始建设，”一位日本顶级汽车零部件供应商的高管表示。

保时捷咨询公司的本杰明·布兰德表示，欧洲汽车制造商正密切关注中国的收购，因为所有权变更可能带来供应链风险，尤其是在制造商为关键零部件的唯一供应商时。

简报

• 伯纳姆称哈珀杀手将继续服刑 首相表示，他“对两名被定罪杀害警察安德鲁·哈珀的男子不会被纳入政府提前释放计划越来越有信心”——下一节

• 英国病情好转 英国国家统计局表示，长期患病可能使英国人无法工作的情况比最初预想的要少，并援引了其超负荷劳动力调查的初步估计结果——下一节

• 电网工程附近账单减免 由于部长们希望减少当地反对意见并为低碳能源所需的基础设施赢得支持，靠近信号工程的家庭将有资格获得电费减免——下一节

• 43亿英镑 西区交易 好莱坞买家阿特·伊曼纽尔已达成一项收购剧院集团的交易，该集团旗下拥有包括莱西姆剧院和萨沃伊剧院在内的场馆，并押注免费活动的强劲需求将持续。——下一节

• 欧盟边境墙翻倍 在新电子边境系统推出后，法兰克福和慕尼黑机场的等候时间较一年前翻了一番。法兰克福7月的等候时间达两小时。——下一节

• 特朗普支持因凡蒂诺 美国总统警告称，将国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺免职将是一个“严重错误”。这位国际足联主席与特朗普建立了密切关系。

• 意大利提议对银行征税 副总理马泰奥·萨尔维尼提议对银行利润征收为期三年的税收，因即将到来的选举和紧张的公共财政使银行家的丰厚收益成为焦点。——下一节

• 高盛员工涉嫌欺诈 巴西警方已将这家美国银行的部分员工列为一起欺诈调查的嫌疑人，该调查涉及一家癌症治疗公司的股东纠纷。——下一节

[]

阿斯利康交易失败后的战略质疑

阿斯利康首席执行官帕斯卡·索里奥与百时美施贵宝的交易计划在英国权力走廊中引发了对转让信贷和不安情绪。在《金融时报》披露该消息后，这家制药商的股价保持稳定，而白厅官员担心富时 500 指数中第二大集团可能利用合并成为最新一家将重心转移至美国的企业。这一事件引发了对阿斯利康产品线及其首席执行官战略的质疑。——下一节

西班牙和冰岛的日食观赏者面临天价酒店房价

斯蒂芬妮·斯塔迪 - 伦敦 哈德·尼翁 - 城市天堂 尼翁·亨特 - 哈德逊

随着游客蜂拥前往观赏本世纪首次在欧洲大陆可见的日全食，冰岛和西班牙部分城市的酒店价格已翻了一番。

数据集团 Lighthouse 称，冰岛首都雷克雅未克今晚的日食期间，酒店房价平均超过 2,000 美元，较 2023 年同期上涨了一倍多。

在西班牙旅游业遭受 30 年来最严重山火打击后，日食路径沿线的本地需求已趋于稳定。

北部城市拉科鲁尼亚的房价同样翻了一番，毕尔巴鄂和圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉的价格分别上涨了 50% 和 31%。在马略卡岛——日食将在日落时分出现在地平线上——房价上涨了五分之一。

“需求过于旺盛，且来自四面八方，”雷克雅未克 Sky Lagoon 温泉的常务董事赫尔加·玛丽亚·阿尔贝塔德特表示，游客将在温泉池中观赏日食。

豪华旅行公司 Holden Iceland 的联合创始人瑞安·康诺利称，他于 2023 年 9 月收到了首个日食预订，他说今年 3 月不得不开始拒绝预订，并表示“全国的船只和住宿都已爆满”。

冰岛航空为满足需求（尤其是来自美国的需求）增开了航班，并按“旺季峰值运力”运营，首席执行官博吉·尼尔斯·博加松表示。竞争对手达美航空也增开了从纽约飞往雷克雅未克的航班。

根据分析集团 AirSPA 的数据，日食当晚位于全食带内的冰岛民宿在 Airbnb 等短租平台上的价格同比上涨了 52.7%。

西班牙的影响较小，因其房源供应量更大，但全食带内的房价仍平均上涨了 10.4%。

西班牙政府预计，此次日食将带来 3420 万欧元的额外旅游收入，吸引更多游客从南部度假热点前往鲜少有人问津的“空心西班牙”内陆地区。

旅游热潮不仅限于陆地：包括公主邮轮和维珍游轮在内的多家邮轮公司已推出前往西班牙和冰岛海岸的特别航线。

首相称杀害PC的凶手将继续服刑

伯纳姆声称增加监狱空间的举措将防止二人提前获释

最新进展 — 已审核，LECHE

安迪·伯纳姆昨日表示，他“对两名杀害警察安德鲁·哈珀的被定罪男子不会被纳入政府囚犯提前释放计划越来越有信心”。

监狱数量和政府增加监狱空间的举措“将使我们能够减少提前释放的人数，对于像杀害PC哈珀这样的最严重罪犯，则能完全防止他们提前获释。”

他表示，多方已对北部地区进行调查，以制定方案，将这些罪犯与其他被定罪的最严重罪犯一同继续关押，

唐宁街表示。社区大臣安吉拉·雷纳昨日告诉LNC，诺里斯将在下个月议会夏季休会结束时向议员通报该计划的详情。

哈珀于2019年在执行公务时遇害，当时他被一辆车拖行，该车被用作类似于“飞车党”的严重犯罪工具。

司机亨利·朗因过失杀人被判处10年监禁，由于他被判处延长确定刑期，因此无法考虑提前释放。然而，有报道称车上的多名乘客——阿尔伯特·鲍尔斯和杰西·科尔——因过失杀人被定罪，可能有资格提前获释，此事引发了公众强烈抗议。

哈珀的遗孀一直反对二人在服刑5年后获释，超过900,000人已签署请愿书，要求二人继续服刑。

伯纳姆上周采取措施，禁止强奸犯、严重性犯罪者及有诱拐定罪者提前获释，这意味着与之前的计划相比，将有1,000名囚犯不会在刑满前获释。

然而，这些限制并未豁免哈珀的杀手，他

伯纳姆昨日坚称，他并未接受“无法采取更多措施”的说法！

上周他坚称，自己已“竭尽所能”缩小该计划的范围，“否则监狱系统可能在数月内达到容量极限并崩溃”。

周一，唐宁街表示，在过失杀人这一更广泛的罪行类别中，“无法”豁免一两名罪犯不适用提前释放计划，并指出对紧急工作者的过失杀人并非独立罪行。

然而，伯纳姆昨日坚称，他“并未接受无法采取更多措施的说法”，并要求制定“快速跟进”计划。他表示，官员们正在研究释放监狱空间的方案，以继续关押某些罪犯，如哈珀的杀手。

伯纳姆提到的方案包括：“加快将外国籍罪犯从监狱系统遣返回原籍国的速度；尽早解决1997年（警察保护改进）判决这一长期悬而未决的问题，这可能允许释放低风险囚犯；以及更充分地利用整个监狱系统，包括将此类罪犯关押在女子监狱”。

前工党护士官员安德鲁·丹尼·肖本周建议，

政府可以特别将因过失杀人被判处10年或以上监禁的囚犯排除在该计划之外，他声称这类囚犯约有220人，以确保哈珀的杀手继续服刑，而无需释放所有过失杀人罪犯。

“只需要想象力和政治意愿，”他在其中说道。

泰晤士河谷警察联合会主席奥康纳表示，关于哈珀的生与死，“看到了一线希望和鼓励”，“我知道世界已经改变！此前我们收到过混杂的信息。围绕这一问题的公众情绪之强烈显而易见……这关乎哈珀及其家人的正义。”

部长们未能采取更远行动的失误对警务人员而言“近乎羞辱”，奥康纳表示。由《评论》杂志的凯利与贝克·赖特补充报道。

验光师 第22页

政治·首相职位

伯恩汉姆的领导风格在狱政危机中接受考验

新首相的执政方式显示出 开始将左翼选票团结在工党背后的迹象

最新动态

安迪·伯恩汉姆对囚犯提前释放计划的处理，正成为其上任后的首次考验，初步展现了其首相任期的执政风格。

这位新任狱政大臣在入主唐宁街的第一周内，已多次就旨在避免监狱过度拥挤危机的计划进行干预。

在宣布对该计划进行紧急审查后，伯恩汉姆公布了自10月起符合提前释放条件的罪犯限制措施。

竞选活动估计，将有更多罪犯被排除在考虑范围之外，包括侵犯人权者、严重性犯罪者以及被定罪的诱拐犯。但公众的强烈抗议因未能阻止两名杀害警察安德鲁·哈珀的凶手在服满10年过失杀人刑期一半时出狱而愈演愈烈。

随着压力——由遇害警员遗孀琳达·哈珀主导——不断升级，以及一份要求将这对凶手继续关押的请愿书获得近90万人签名，伯恩汉姆昨日宣布进一步行动。"我理解公众的深切担忧……我完全理解安德鲁家人的痛苦，"他说道。

为避免给人留下被公众情绪左右的印象，伯恩汉姆强调自己是在回应民意。

牛津大学政治学教授表示："他的领导风格中有一种非常独特的特质，即对公众关切高度敏感。"

这位狱政大臣在上任第一周对生活成本问题的关注——例如提出在英格兰实施2英镑的票价上限以及削减电费增值税——"正好体现了伯恩汉姆对民意的把握，"她补充道。

![IMG_C56F4A5D]

安迪·伯恩汉姆与安吉拉·雷纳昨日在德比郡休斯顿。下图：安德鲁与琳达·哈珀 —— 《金融时报》 / PC

伯恩汉姆最新宣布的商业街复兴计划，是另一项回应选民对切实变革期待的举措，旨在解决当地社区经济衰退的明显象征。

评论人士称，前任政府在向民众解释政府决策与其日常生活的关联方面不够成功。

伦敦玛丽王后大学博士后研究员马修·伯奇菲尔德的研究显示，伯恩汉姆对生活成本、区域发展和社会保障的强调，与选民的优先关切相契合。

但这项在其上任两周后进行的调查，也给唐宁街10号敲响了警钟。

"选民只是怀疑他在下次选举前是否有时间实现这些目标，"伯奇菲尔德表示。"可能因此，他们并不认为他会在任期结束后继续担任首相。"

唐宁街10号表示，伯恩汉姆在全国及各地区的夏季巡访——昨日从德比郡开始——意在转入"聚焦模式"，并"深入民众"，为其10年英国蓝图征集建议。政策的具体融资方案正在制定中，并将于10月预算案中最终确定。

保守党影子财政大臣麦克欣基昨日表示，伯恩汉姆"尚未解释如何为其众多昂贵承诺买单"。他还称，这位首相可能已"变回执政的老工党模样"，将"通过更高税收压榨勤劳的'无辜者'"。

自民党智库"政府研究所"公共服务团队副主任表示，伯恩汉姆在社会限制方面的早期信号可能意味着显著增加支出，而国防预算的提升也将需要资源的重新配置。

其他“支出困境”还出现在针对公众的“持续犯罪”特别打击行动中，但执法和司法系统方面存在问题，他补充道。

在过去九年间与伯纳姆共事的官员中，一个普遍的批评是，他在担任大曼彻斯特市长期间不愿对人说“不”——而这在唐宁街是必不可少的。

然而，伯纳姆的盟友坚称，他在应对监狱提前释放计划时的反应如出一辙，与埃里克·哈尼斯爵士形成鲜明对比。后者在政治争议爆发时往往固执己见，最终却在11年后被迫让步。“哈尼斯是个好人，但他并不总是能看清形势，”一位高级官员表示，“伯纳姆则不同——他能立刻识别出哪些事情需要立即处理。比如杀人犯的释放问题，无论政策建议或其他限制 / 利弊如何，他都会果断应对。”

“民调显示，他的做法正开始巩固工党左翼选民的支持——从绿党手中赢回选民——而此时右翼选票正在改革18党、保守党和英国改革党（Reform British）之间分裂。但伯纳姆仍需从前任首相的执政中吸取教训。

2024年夏季，哈尼斯曾对首次民调支持率突破400感到自豪，并对预算挑战引发的骚乱采取了宽松应对。但他的政府很快陷入困境，上任首月其支持率便开始下滑。

1998年的一项研究指出，同时运行两项调查的成本“正日益制约数据质量，并限制英国国家统计局（ONS）在更广泛统计改进方面的投入”。

工党数据

新ONS调查下的长期病假问题减轻

长期病假可能使更少的英国人脱离劳动力市场，英国国家统计局（ONS）表示，这一结论基于六项经过全面改革的劳动力调查的初步估计。

该机构指出，经济不活跃人口的估计数据是导致其当前劳动力市场调查与所谓“转型劳动力调查”（TLFS）之间“较大差异”的原因。

ONS表示，最新调查（目前计划于2024年底前首次发布）显示，因长期病假导致的不活跃人口水平低于现行的劳动力调查（用于生成失业数据）。

ONS拒绝量化差异，但其发现与2024年智库决议基金会的一份报告不谋而合。该报告认为，回复率的急剧下降导致了对就业市场“过于悲观的描绘”。

这一问题的严重程度要到ONS明年发布更详细分析后才能明确。这对依赖该调查获取就业数据的出版物以及此前未将8视为下届选举前重要因素的高级官员来说，无疑是一记打击。

ONS经济统计总监詹姆斯·本菲尔德表示，该机构已改进调查设计，以更准确地估计人们脱离劳动力市场的原因。

他表示，初步迹象显示，TLFS提供了“更明确且更低的估计”，即报告长期病假的人数。

然而，ONS指出，由于两项调查对长期病假的定义不同，仍需对估计数据进行更多分析。

ONS一直在努力修复现行就业调查的问题，包括回复率下降。这一问题在新冠疫情封锁期间因面对面访谈中断而加剧，今年第一季度的回复率仅为21%。

ONS表示，TLFS表现“更佳”，回复率更高，部分完成的调查减少，且问卷填答时间明显缩短。

该机构将在明年年中决定是否批准将TLFS作为官方就业和经济不活跃数据的基础。

决议基金会的经济学家表示，对这一变化意义的评估需等待TLFS基础数据的发布。但所有迹象均表明，长期病假是一个真实存在的问题，而非“数据怪象”。

政府迄今仍未任命新的国家统计师，自伊恩·戴蒙德爵士卸任已逾一年。

ONS表示，同时运行两项调查的成本“正日益制约数据质量，并限制ONS在更广泛统计改进方面的投资能力”。

犯罪团伙向中国留学生施压，专家警告

罗伯特·赖特

一位警方专家表示，大学正对犯罪团伙广泛胁迫中国留学生的行为视而不见。

内政部有组织犯罪调查特别工作组地区负责人戴维·威尔逊在其博士研究中对英国916名中国留学生进行了调查后提出了这一说法。

他发现，每八名中国留学生中就有一人曾亲身面临或认识曾面临犯罪团伙施压的人。

“威尔逊表示：“大学应努力识别这一问题，或至少承认问题的存在。”

他警告称，“就其犯罪和国家安全影响而言，中国有组织犯罪是英国国内最大的单一犯罪威胁。”

威尔逊的研究是近几十年来针对英国与中国相关团伙的最全面调查，同时也发现警方在应对该问题时存在多项不足。这些不足包括缺乏语言技能、文化理解以及必要时能够卧底的华裔警员。

影子内政部初级部长艾伦·基尔恩斯称威尔逊的工作为“至关重要的研究”，并表示中国犯罪网络——与其他国籍的团伙一样——涉及毒品、卖淫、政治压制、现代奴役和间谍活动。

来自中国的留学生占英国高等教育机构海外学生总数的23%，是印度之后的最大留学生群体。

香港自由委员会基金会英国公共事务主管张其安对威尔逊的发现表示赞同。“香港和中国留学生极易受到跨国犯罪网络的招募，这些网络跨大西洋运作，并能利用家庭或其他国内关系施加限制，”张其安说。

她呼吁大学建立机制，让学生能够匿名举报外国干预的压力。

在为数不多的中国留学生因参与有组织犯罪而被定罪的案例中，来自北京的学生黄晓彤于2023年因代表一个以格拉斯哥为据点、由中国留学生组成的有组织犯罪团伙洗钱被判处10个月监禁。

威尔逊表示，犯罪分子通常通过先提供小恩小惠来拉拢学生。

“大学应努力识别这一问题，或至少承认问题的存在”

中国驻英国大使馆表示，中国政府“始终致力于”打击跨国犯罪，包括针对学生的犯罪行为。

“（中国）积极参与国际执法合作，与有关国家开展联合行动，”声明称，“中英两国执法部门在此类问题上保持沟通与协调，我们希望双方继续加强此类合作。”

研究中发现的大多数胁迫行为涉及诸如代为接收银行转账或代收包裹等犯罪活动。伪装的银行转账可能用于洗钱，而包裹通常装有毒品或其他违禁品。

12%的受访者表示，他们知晓有年轻女性被迫从事性工作，有组织犯罪团伙正在“性剥削中国女孩”。

“我们是一家理解无法独自解决这一问题的领导者。‘识别和调查涉嫌犯罪活动的最终责任必须由相应的法律机构承担。’”

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2020年8月12日 星期三

《金融时报》

3

国内

低碳能源

电网升级附近家庭将获得电费优惠

计划旨在消除当地对电力线路和输电塔的担忧

雷切尔·米勒德（Rachel Millard）和西蒙·克尔（Simon Kerr）报道

在政府推动向低碳能源转型所需基础设施的背景下，距离40多个大型电网升级项目附近的家庭将有资格享受电费优惠。

英国能源安全与净零排放部今日将公布首批纳入一项计划的项目，该计划旨在遏制可能拖慢电网升级进程的当地反对声音。名单涵盖了规划中的电力线路、输电塔和换流站的开发或升级项目，其中绝大多数位于苏格兰和英格兰东部。

政府表示，距离项目500米以内的家庭将能在10年内节省2,500 英镑的电费。折扣仅在相关项目获得全部规划许可并开工后才会生效，首批项目预计将于2023年启动。

此举标志着能源行业资深人士尼克·温特在2023年向保守党政府提出的建议得以落实，旨在推动去碳化进程。

能源部长迈克尔·桑克斯表示，升级电网对确保“安全、本土化的能源”至关重要，并强调“决心让承载输电塔的社区从中受益”。

然而，反对SEEN公司在金托尔至特雷丁间建设100 万伏架空输电线路的活动人士称，这一公告是“对面临‘经营困难的企业和房屋滞销’的当地社区的‘一记耳光’”。

“这一政府要么严重脱离实际，要么是在表达对受影响居民和能源消费者的蔑视，”活动组织“拯救我们的梅尔斯”的凯特·马修斯表示。

上述补偿款项将由电网运营商承担，其成本最终由电网用户分摊。

能源部表示，预计至2030年，补偿款项将使普通家庭总共支出4英镑至5英镑，每年最高支出约为50便士。

近年来，随着全国风电场和太阳能发电场激增，以及电动汽车和热泵使用量的预期增长，电力系统亟需升级和扩容。若无法及时容纳这些项目，可能会阻碍政府在2030年前实现电力系统去碳化的目标，并导致更多风电场因电力无法输送至需求地而被迫关停并获得补偿。

当地活动人士已在多个地区对项目提出反对，理由包括对野生动物的潜在危害、景观影响、噪音和土地使用等问题。批评者还对电网升级的成本表示担忧，这些成本由所有电力消费者分摊，也是英国相对较高电价的原因之一。

在当地反对声音推动下，苏格兰地方议员对金托尔-特雷丁项目提出异议，苏格兰政府已启动强制性调查。该调查预计将于2024年1月初提出建议，最终决定将由苏格兰政府部长作出。

SEEN公司表示，该架空线路是更广泛电网升级的关键组成部分，将为苏格兰东北部带来投资和就业机会。

气候警报：绿地面临“生存性”威胁

焦土：伦敦八大皇家公园之一的格林尼治公园，昨日在明日发布高温橙色预警之际的景象

一项新研究显示，气候变化对英格兰逾3,000处历史公园和花园构成“非常明确且生存性的威胁”。

研究发现，包括首都八大皇家公园在内的伦敦绿地均受到日益极端天气的负面影响。

该报告由国家彩票遗产基金（National Lottery Heritage Fund）和英国遗产局（Historic England）发布，此前英格兰经历了有记录以来最干旱的7月，超过三分之二的地区被宣布处于“流动性干旱”状态。

研究人员发现，炎热干燥的夏季正对植物和土壤造成压力，导致历史上不易发生干旱的地区出现成熟树木和灌木损失。

园林管理者报告称，难以跟上植物健康威胁的步伐，整个植物群落因病害而消失，包括黄杨、白蜡、欧洲栗和橡树等树种。

与此同时，冬季老旧的排水和道路系统在强降雨中往往无法发挥作用。积水土壤可能导致侵蚀和树木不稳，而一些从未经历过洪水的地点也出现了洪涝。

在焦土背景下，英国气象局（Met Office）针对英格兰部分地区明日发布了高温橙色预警，预计气温将达到38℃。

“显然，我们的历史公园、花园和墓地正面临气候变化带来的前所未有的挑战，若无紧急支持和建议，许多珍贵景观将遭受不可逆的改变，”国家彩票遗产基金土地、海洋和自然政策负责人德鲁·贝尔斯托克（Drew Bellstock）表示。

作为回应，公园和花园正调整种植策略，引入更多适应气候的物种，这些物种通常来自更温暖或干旱的地区。

皇家公园（Royal Parks）主管达伦·谢恩（Darren Shane）正借鉴巴塞罗那的经验，因伦敦预计到2030年将拥有与之相似的气候。“我们正积极倾听……欧洲公园如何应对，”他表示。

布希（Bushey）、里士满（Richmond）和格林尼治（Greenwich）的公园正在测试复兴维多利亚时代的地下水库。谢恩补充道，皇家公园正与国家彩票遗产基金合作，对120处水网进行测绘，探索如何“减缓水流、将其引入储水设施，并在整个网络中重复利用”。

贝尔斯托克呼吁采取统一行动。

“我们需要将拼图的所有碎片拼凑起来。我认为我们都意识到气候变化正在到来，需要做好准备。但我认为尤其是今年夏天，它确实让人们感到震惊。”皮莉·克拉克及第22页读者来信

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4

•

金融时报

2026年8月13日 星期三

电子边境系统导致欧盟最大机场排队时间延长

莱迪·约翰逊，副主任，彼得·坎贝尔——伦敦报道

欧盟新电子边境系统推出后，今夏两大欧洲机场的高峰等候时间较去年同期翻倍。金融时报获取的数据显示：

法兰克福机场7月的最长排队时间达120分钟，较去年的60分钟增长一倍。根据慕尼黑旅行及数据分析公司Quorum的数据，慕尼黑机场高峰等候时间从31分钟增至60分钟，阿姆斯特丹机场的最长等候时间则从80分钟升至120分钟。

旅游业此前曾警告，新系统将导致长时间延误，并指出机场可能难以足够快速地处理预先登记的乘客。

欧盟于4月启用“入境 / 出境系统”（EES），要求来自1个非欧盟国家的乘客在首次入境时登记指纹、照片及个人信息。

瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔·奥利里（Michael O'Leary）表示，该系统“设计不当”，应改为线上办理。

“只有欧洲人才会投资这种东西。”他上月对投资者表示，并称该航空公司已在约10个机场遭遇严重排队。

该系统旨在通过追踪出入境人员，识别签证逾期者及通缉犯，提升欧盟边境安全，但其推出过程饱受延误、技术故障及硬件问题困扰。

“英美度假者对排队时间焦虑不安”

法兰克福机场表示，新检查措施已导致“出发延误及进一步的运营中断”。

Quorum向金融时报提供的数据基于乘客报告及公开信息，展示了全天特定时段的排队时长快照。

“随着等候时间增加，我们看到英国和北美度假者对排队时长的焦虑情绪激增。”Quorum创始人奥利弗·麦克菲尔德（Oliver Macfield）表示。

数据显示，这三大欧洲枢纽机场在最繁忙时段的排队时间出现明显峰值。

在慕尼黑，等候时间变化仅出现在需人工检查的乘客中，表明EES登记是延误的原因之一，因该系统的排队区域专供无需登记的欧盟乘客使用。

为缓解压力，多个机场已暂停部分EES检查措施，如在高峰时段不采集指纹。

这一灵活措施将于9月结束，但包括瑞士在内的8个欧盟成员国已要求欧盟委员会延长期限。欧委会正讨论延期可能性。

“关于夏季结束后的安排，我们正与相关成员国保持密切且建设性的沟通，以应对特定边境口岸的挑战。”欧委会表示。

欧委会还称，EES登记平均耗时70秒，“在大多数情况下”对旅客的影响有限，并强调EES自启用以来已登记“数百万次出入境记录”，带来“非常明确的安全效益”。

企业呼吁，机场应“运用常识，避免让乘客排队等候三小时”。

专访：乌尔夫·克里斯特松

西班牙移民大赦是“非常糟糕的主意”

瑞典外交政策研究所警告称，放宽边境的决定将危及欧盟申根体系的“团结”

理查德·霍尔姆与 本·马拉 —— 斯德哥尔摩报道

瑞典首相表示，西班牙对非正规移民的大赦是一个“非常糟糕的主意”，并警告称这可能将欧洲推回2010年式的移民危机，并对欧洲大陆的自由流动区提出质疑。

瑞典中右翼领导人乌尔夫·克里斯特松在接受《金融时报》采访时表示，西班牙对逾1万人的大赦在上次欧盟领导人会议上引发了“相当大的反响”，与其他国家努力实现的目标背道而驰。

上月，数万人进入西班牙在北非的飞地休达，尽管绝大多数人在数小时内返回摩洛哥，但意大利、德国和丹麦等国领导人仍对西班牙提出了尖锐批评。

“这一事件表明，我们仍需非常、非常谨慎，避免采取可能接近2015,情况的行动。我认为西班牙已经收到信息……但这显示了脆弱性，”克里斯特松说。

2015.年，瑞典接纳的移民数量相对于其人口规模位居欧洲前列，但随后面临严峻的融入挑战和地区性犯罪问题。

克里斯特松正以减少寻求庇护者人数及降低瑞典致命枪击案件为竞选纲领，争取连任。但其右翼阵营（包括民族主义政党瑞典民主党）在民调中落后于以社会民主党为首的左翼阵营。

这位瑞典首相表示，他已向西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯表达了对近期非正规移民大赦的怀疑，该大赦导致1,2ms人申请，是马德里预期数量的两倍以上。

“实施[大赦]还会为环境民粹主义创造可能性。这对我们来说尤其有害，因为我们从经验中知道，许多来到欧洲的人更倾向于前往北方。2015年正是这样的情况，”克里斯特松说。

桑切斯认为，移民对西班牙老龄化人口的长期经济健康至关重要。该大赦为无合法身份的移民提供一年期可续签的工作许可，前提是他们已在西班牙居住五个月，且无犯罪记录。

西班牙的大赦将赋予移民在西班牙生活和工作的权利，而这些权利在欧盟其他国家并不适用。然而，许多来自拉丁美洲的移民将能够在欧洲申根区内自由流动。

克里斯特松警告称，申根协定要求成员国“以统一方式行动，以保护我们的外部边境，并尽可能协调政策”。他补充说，由于某个国家的决定导致移民流动增加，无疑会影响申根体系的“团结”。

瑞典自身已大幅收紧移民、驱逐和永久居留的规定，导致去年寻求庇护者人数降至40年来最低水平。

“现在不是放松的时候……瑞典绝大多数民众都表示，不能回到失控的局面，”克里斯特松说。“做出可能破坏我们稳定局面的事情将是一个非常糟糕的主意。”

9月的选举对瑞典来说是一个关键时刻，克里斯特松及其中右翼盟友首次表示将在政府中纳入瑞典民主党。该党根植于新纳粹运动，其领导人去年为这些联系及其历史上的分支机构道歉。

反对派发现，民主党人曾表示愿意与议会中除瑞典民主党以外的任何政党合作。最新的7月民调显示，中左翼的社会民主党支持率为21%，领先于瑞典民主党的20%和瑞典（民调数据缺失17%）。

首相为瑞典民主党的决定辩护，称右翼阵营提出了明确的联合执政方案，而社会民主党尚未说明将与哪些政党合作。

克里斯特松表示：“我看不出其中有何问题”，并以邻国挪威和芬兰近期与反移民民族主义政党组建联合政府为例。

在即将卸任的瑞典议会中，所有右翼政党均支持增加国防开支和对乌克兰的援助。首相质疑，若由社会民主党领导的新政府是否能在这些问题上产生与现任政府同等的影响力——现任政府推动瑞典加入了联盟。此后，斯德哥尔摩在地区防务规划中发挥了强有力的作用，并将提升国防工业能力。

克里斯特松称，俄罗斯将是欧洲“决定性的威胁”，并表示“安全将成为我们即将到来的一切事务的基础”。

“如果左翼政党获胜，四个政党中将有两个（14席）反对瑞典加入北约，反对新的安全政策方向，那么他们究竟如何能就瑞典国家的参与做出任何新决定？”Svazdbek说道。

社会民主党则表示，他们是瑞典加入北约、发展国防工业及支持乌克兰的坚定领导者。

丰厚收益

意大利副总理提议对银行征收5%暴利税

萨尔马·焦尔迪利·埃迪梅利 — 米兰 纪律登记 — 伊斯坦

意大利副总理马泰奥·萨尔维尼昨日提议在明年的预算中对银行利润征收为期三年的税收，因住房、选举及公共财政紧张等问题将银行的高额利润置于聚光灯下。

此提议出现在银行业自2008年金融危机以来创造部分最佳利润之际，促使欧洲各国政府重新讨论是否应提高对银行的征税力度。

萨尔维尼昨日表示，意大利前10大银行可能被要求“在三年内”贡献约5%的利润。

“我想提醒那些持怀疑态度的人，这些利润的一部分源于国家担保，因此也来自纳税人，甚至是由纳税人承担的成本，”他补充道。

意大利五大银行集团——Intesa Sanpaolo、裕信银行、Banco BFM、锡耶纳牧山银行及BFM——在2026年上半年共实现净利润超过€3,0m，较去年同期增长3.7%，根据意大利银行业首份名单分析。

萨尔维尼昨日称赞了西班牙的税收政策，西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯对银行征收了最高7%的累进税。

对银行征税已成为意大利右翼联盟政府寻求额外收入的常见主题，因家庭面临生活成本和借贷成本上升，且燃料价格因禁令飙升。

该提议是在2026年大选背景下提出的，由萨尔维尼领导的联盟党主导。萨尔维尼表示，他“确信”这一提议将获得其他联盟党派的支持。

意大利2026年预算已对银行实施临时措施，包括将地区营业税上调3个百分点，为期三年。萨尔维尼的提议将在此基础上增加新的税收，其办公室表示。

政府在即将出台的预算案前面临艰难抉择，减少财政赤字的选项有限。

意大利经济去年增长0.5%——为欧洲最低增速之一，今年预计仍将保持大致相同水平。同时，其债务占GDP比率在2015年底已高达137%。今年意大利企业投资在欧盟最稳定的经济体中表现突出。

三年前，意大利曾宣布类似措施，导致企业和银行股价一度大跌，之后才逐渐回升。

意大利力量党（联盟党的自由派初级合作伙伴）过去曾反对类似措施，而总理乔治娅·梅洛尼所在政党的成员则认为政府的做法是平衡公共财政并帮助受抵押贷款成本上升影响的家庭的一种担忧方式，该党支持率较去年同期下降6.8%。

意大利银行业协会一直反对对银行利润征税。去年，该协会辩称，将银行利润增长描述为“暴利”具有误导性，因为银行已比其他企业面临更高的企业税和地区税税率。

《金融时报》 FT周末 金融时报 明智之选

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州选举

德国部长称AfD的胜利将吓退外国投资者

奥拉夫·施托赖希 —— 法兰克福 阿尔莫·埃蒂·格姆·绍塞特 —— 柏林

德国经济部长警告称，对极右翼政党“德国选择党”（AfD）支持率的上升正在削弱外国投资者进入德国的意愿，而柏林方面希望在2040年前从资本市场筹集至少€5.7bn资金。

在10月柏林首届投资峰会前夕接受《金融时报》采访时，凯瑟琳·赖歇警告称，极右翼政党AfD日益增长的政治支持可能会在潜在投资者中“引发担忧”。

德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨领导的联合政府希望将此次活动打造为“几年前”吸引传统投资者（如养老基金和私募股权集团）的契机。此举是梅尔茨推动改变德国经济面临结构性挑战（包括来自中国的竞争、高能源价格和劳动力短缺）的努力之一。

但就在会议将于10月25,日开幕之际，AfD已将目标锁定在2个前东德州的选举中取得历史性胜利。

根据民调，该极右翼政党有望在9月的图林根-安巴赫州选举中赢得绝对多数席位。

德国国内情报机构已表示，AfD可能对国家的国内稳定构成威胁。

“2025年竞选活动的结果25分明确，他们（反对）市场经济，”赖歇表示，并补充称该党的纲领是“混乱的大杂烩”，缺乏“明确的经济政策概念”，且包含“社会主义元素”。

赖歇出生于前东德，她将AfD描述为"Thailand / Public"的最佳盟友之一。

赖歇的警告与德国主要工业游说组织BFI负责人塔尼娅·金嫩本月的表态不谋而合。金嫩称AfD在州政府中可能扮演的角色“灾难性”，认为这将使德国作为投资目的地变得“复杂化”且吸引力下降。

梅尔茨政府正寻求利用其受债务约束的投资计划，在2040,年前“至少额外吸引€5.7bn私人资本”，赖歇表示。这将在同期€1.7bn公共投资的基础上实现。政府已放宽宪法对债务的限制，以投资于装备武装部队、修复年久失修的基础设施和能源网络去碳化。

德国经济和能源部长凯瑟琳·赖歇 将AfD描述为"Thailand / Public"的最佳盟友之一

Freiheit

赖歇表示，她已与美国、中国和英国的投资者交流，向他们推介她所称的“一生一次的机会”，即投资德国中小企业（Mittelstand）——这些家族所有的中小型企业正面临超小型转型。

德国政府正在邀请多达2%的投资者参会，包括高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门和贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克。芬克曾雇佣梅尔茨担任德国首席代表。

作为梅尔茨领导的中右翼基督教民主联盟（CDU）成员，赖歇强调，尽管德国当前存在弱点，但仍是一个“工业强国”，拥有“尖端研究”和“高技能劳动力”。

“这是我们（德国）首次展示我们的明星实力，”她表示。

她认为，德国对本国企业部门的看法过于悲观。“有时我们往往会忽视自身的优势，”她说道。

在前东德地区，赖歇将AfD描述为"Thailand / Public"的最佳盟友之一

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2024年8月12,日 星期三

金融时报

5

今日（8月12日），专家一致认为西班牙是地球上观赏日全食的最佳地点。

届时景象将会如此。

西班牙正在发生的好事

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6

•

金融时报

2026年8月15日 星期三

国际

伊朗最高领袖提拔强硬派鹰派人物

神秘统治者调整关键职位之际，德黑兰政权加强对美重开霍尔木兹海峡协议的要求

安德鲁·保兰 — 伦敦 丽塔·沙普塔 — 德黑兰

20世纪80年代初，当伊朗新生的伊斯兰政权在与伊拉克的战争中为生存而战时，穆赫辛·礼萨伊（Mohsen Rezaei）作为新组建的Kevahatewary Islands部队的一名年轻而严厉的指挥官，在前线崭露头角。

当其他领导人推动和解时，礼萨伊主张伊朗应继续战斗——即使在收复被伊拉克独裁者萨达姆·侯赛因（Saddam Hussain）占领的领土之后。德黑兰和巴格达最终于1996年达成停战协议，两国均因这场毁灭性冲突而元气大伤。

近四十年后，75岁的强硬派人物礼萨伊再次准备为伊斯兰共和国的生存而战。他被任命为伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书，实际上成为共和国的最高安全官员——在决定与美国的战争走向方面拥有关键发言权。

此举巩固了他作为穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（Mujtaba Khamenei）核心圈子成员的地位，正值伊朗政权在重开霍尔木兹海峡的外交推动中加强强硬言论，并使美伊重返谈判的努力陷入困境。

在礼萨伊的任命宣布前一天（周六），其前任穆罕默德·拉格尔·佐尔盖卜（Mohammad Ragher Zolghaib）提出了一系列条件，坚称美国必须满足这些条件，伊朗才会同意重开海峡。

这些条件包括：美国"永久"结束对伊朗及其地区代理人的战争、解除对伊朗港口的海上封锁、从共和国周边撤军，并表示美国应为这场战争及去年持续12天的美伊冲突支付"unpreventable nation"，解除105项制裁，并归还被冻结的海外伊朗资产。

佐尔盖卜在一天后突然离职，未给出任何理由，而包括外交部长阿巴斯·克拉加迪（Abbas Kraghadi）在内的其他官员也发表了类似言论。

同样属于强硬派的佐尔盖卜被调任为哈梅内伊的政治顾问。

但试图解读伊朗不透明神权体制变化的分析人士认为，这些调整表明，于3月接任最高领袖职位的穆杰塔巴——其父阿里·哈梅内伊（Ali Khamenei）在美以战争首轮打击中丧生后10天继位——正在巩固权力。穆杰塔巴在袭击中受伤，自战争爆发以来未曾公开露面或发声，仅通过来自未知安全地点的书面声明进行沟通。

周一，哈梅内伊宣布了更多安全任命，包括正式确认在战争中前任遇袭身亡后接任的军方和卫队高层职位。

智库危机组织（Crisis Group）的伊朗问题专家All Vacs表示，提拔礼萨伊的举动表明哈梅内伊试图制衡议长穆罕默德·拉格尔·加利巴夫（Muhammad Ragher Ghalibaf），后者曾主导与美国的早期谈判，并成为战时最具影响力的文职领导人之一。

Vacs说："礼萨伊是老一辈的成员，也是穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的导师。我认为穆杰塔巴比起佐尔盖卜更信任他，因为佐尔盖卜与加利巴夫关系更密切。"

Vacs表示："如果说穆杰塔巴从父亲那里学到了什么，那就是无论你多么信任核心圈子里的人，都不能让任何人拥有足以盖过最高领袖的权力。"

在伊朗国内，官方宣传称礼萨伊的经验将增强共和国多层次的决策过程。除了担任卫队指挥官16年，监督其从民兵组织转变为共和国最强大的军事力量外，礼萨伊还曾担任过塑造宏观经济和政治政策的职位，并多次竞选总统均以失败告终。

分析人士表示，他们并不预期伊朗会在对美政策或结束战争的谈判上出现任何重大转变，这一局势的特点是德黑兰对唐纳德·特朗普总统的深度不信任，以及伊朗政权认为自己占据上风。

伊朗领导人不愿重启……

“美国必须改变其行为……以证明其对外交的认真态度。”

穆赫辛·礼萨伊

一名男子在德黑兰的哀悼游行中手持伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊及其已故父亲的旗帜，穆赫辛·礼萨伊

伊朗于6月签署协议，但并未停止以色列对黎巴嫩武装组织希布拉的袭击，且伊朗资产仍被冻结。

分析人士称，这触及德黑兰核心条件：担心如果伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡，美国将违背协议条款，且特朗普可能在11月中期选举后发动新一轮攻击。

伊朗提出的大多数条件，包括美军撤出共和国周边地区及解除所有制裁，均已列入协议（Met）。但这些条件取决于最终解决方案，而该方案需通过两国——两个相互深度不信任的国家——之间复杂而漫长的谈判才能达成。

“伊斯兰共和国意识到，如果现在让步，可能会失去对海峡的控制，届时德黑兰将失去可用于对抗华盛顿的筹码，”伊朗分析人士赛义德·莱尔斯表示，“这就是他们试图从美国获取让步的原因。”

周一，特朗普在Truth Social上回应称，美国将对伊朗要求赔偿的要求“同样要求伊朗赔偿其杀害和严重伤害的所有人”。

对礼萨伊这一代人而言，两伊战争的经历——以及确定性——影响深远。当最终达成共识时，礼萨伊向伊朗领导层提交了关于若继续作战所需军事资源的严峻评估，而共和国缺乏这些资源。

美国密苏里科技大学伊朗裔学者梅尔扎德·博罗戈尔迪表示，对美国而言，礼萨伊的晋升意味着谈判将更加艰难。“这是在释放信号……不要期待我们做出任何让步，或者如果我们要让步，也必须从美国获得同等价值的回报，”他说道。

“这不是一个人说了算……你有几位重量级人物与他同坐决策委员会。但这些人[强硬派]将占据上风。”

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2026年8月12日 星期三

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*图表显示2014-25年年度数据。重要提示：此信息应结合菲利普莫里斯国际公司（Philip Morris International Inc.）于2026年7月22日发布的财报，以及随附的关键术语定义、解释说明、精选财务信息及非GAAP财务指标调整表一并阅读，上述文件均可在我们的投资者关系页面查阅。"PMI"、"sec"、"suc"及"us"均指菲利普莫里斯国际公司旗下所有公司。

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8

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金融时报

2026年8月13日 星期三

国际

内战

叙利亚法院判处阿萨德死刑

法官缺席判决被推翻的前总统反人类罪

威廉·约翰逊·扬 - 通讯社

叙利亚法院缺席判处被推翻的前总统巴沙尔·阿萨德及其胞弟马希尔死刑，这是自2024年其政权被推翻以来首次对这位前独裁者作出此类判决。

阿萨德被判犯有包括蓄意谋杀多人（包括儿童）在内的罪行，以及酷刑和任意拘留。在叙利亚现任总统艾哈迈德·沙马领导的叛军推翻其政权后，阿萨德在经历了近14年的内战后逃往俄罗斯。

法院还判处阿萨德的表弟阿提夫·纳吉布死刑，纳吉布目前在叙利亚羁押，被判犯有谋杀和酷刑等罪行。

法官阿里安（Judge al-Aryan）表示，纳吉布在法庭上戴着帽子出庭，他对2016年叙利亚起义初期在Xerem发生的抗议者骚乱负有责任，该骚乱导致多人丧生。

阿萨德政权在2016年对和平起义进行了血腥镇压，随后演变为内战。至少有1042,000人在政权镇压中丧生，其他人则遭到监禁和酷刑。自其盟友弗拉基米尔·普京向其提供庇护以来，阿萨德一直与家人居住在莫斯科。领导军队臭名昭著的第四师的马希尔也在俄罗斯。

叙利亚法院缺席判处马希尔及其他六人谋杀和酷刑罪，并判处死刑。

法庭外聚集了示威者，他们举着在Xerem血腥镇压抗议者期间遇害者的照片，该镇压始于数名被指控书写反政权标语的青少年遭到酷刑，纳吉布的行为点燃了全国性起义。国家新闻画面显示示威者庆祝纳吉布被定罪。

叙利亚尚未通过全面的过渡期司法法案，以解决内战期间由政权机构及其他武装派别犯下的罪行。新成立的立法机构计划在22, 2026讨论一项草案。

参与过渡期司法国家委员会的律师拉希德·穆姆塔希对国家媒体表示：“我们认为这一判决是重要的一步，而非终点。仍有案件在审理中。”他补充道：“正义不是基于复仇，而是基于真相、法律、问责和公平。”

此外，黎巴嫩议员昨日投票废除死刑，并以终身苦役取而代之。尽管黎巴嫩自2004年以来未执行过任何死刑，国际特赦组织中东和北非地区主任表示：“今天的投票将暂停执行死刑转化为永久性法律保护。”

黎巴嫩司法部长表示，废除死刑将有助于黎巴嫩从其他司法管辖区引渡人员。

越南寄望韩式“财阀”

共产主义国家押注大型私营企业集团推动下一轮增长

A. 阿拉斯塔·拉尔辛格 - 《航程》记者

在河内一片广阔的开发区内，越南最大的企业集团正在承建一项共产主义国家首次交由本国私营企业负责的基础设施项目。

Vingroup正在为一条高速铁路线奠定基础，该项目所在地已有该集团旗下子公司投资的公寓楼和豪华办公楼，另一子公司生产的汽车和自行车则穿梭于繁忙的道路上。

根据合同，耗资66亿美元的高铁项目——一条从河内到旅游胜地下龙湾的120公里线路（河内-下龙湾线），将行程时间从两个半小时缩短至30分钟——交由Vingroup承建，标志着重大政策转向。

通常，此类合同会交给国有企业，但这家本土工业集团属于河内寄望推动下一轮增长的多元化、重资产型企业集团。随着全球贸易体系受到美国关税威胁，越南希望重新定位其严重依赖出口和外国直接投资的经济。

越南总理、经济改革的坚定支持者范明政表示，政府正鼓励私营部门加大投资，以培育本土工业集团，打造类似韩国财阀的多元化、重资产型企业集团。越南的私营部门占GDP和投资的半壁江山。

越南政府通过激励措施、低息融资和税收优惠，鼓励私营企业发展成家族所有、多元化的大型企业集团。这些企业集团曾被严格设定出口目标，推动了韩国经济的发展，但也形成了垄断并挤压了中小企业。越南培育本土企业巨头的雄心，是在国家主导经济多年快速增长后提出的。越南是制造商为规避美国更高关税而将生产从中国转移的最大受益者之一。美国已占越南出口近三分之一。同时，越南还依赖国有企业推动增长，但其中多家企业因债务沉重和腐败指控而陷入困境。

“[新]决议旨在为本土私营企业创造更公平的竞争环境，使其能更有效地与外国企业和国有企业竞争，”HSC证券首席市场经理蔡阮表示，“这一战略与多个亚洲四小龙的发展路径相似。”

自第10号决议（2017年）颁布以来，Vingroup已承诺投资788万亿越南盾（第一阶段）项目，并赢得了至少两条高速铁路线的建设合同，还参与了河内的地铁线路开发。

“这一战略与多个亚洲四小龙的发展路径相似”

生产汽车的长海集团（Truong Hai Group，俗称Thaco）已响应招标，开发耗资560亿美元的南北高速铁路线。分析人士还将非金融企业和发集团（Hoa Phat Group）及电信公司FPT视为潜在的越南财阀。

上述公司未回复置评请求。

越南当前的企业集团是在1980年代自由化浪潮后崛起的，并在一定程度上得益于政府的微观扶持。但最新的改革旨在让这些企业集团在消费市场上发挥更大影响力，并提升其塑造新经济格局的能力。

在2023年至2026年4月期间，越南已精简超过86个职位和300名官员，以简化部门流程、取消监管障碍并优化准入与分配机制。

“这些改革是河内为解决越南经济长期结构性弱点而进行的清醒且严肃的尝试，”BHL（某机构）国家风险高级分析师Jian Tzu Hong表示，该机构隶属于——

PILUS负债。

其中一项弱点涉及越南生产率增长率下滑。另一项则是公共部门在创造经济活动中扮演的不成比例的角色，”他表示。

尽管分析人士一致认为有必要提振私营部门，但无人认为越南企业龙头会面临韩国财阀式的挑战。

“进行一些变革以树立标杆是合理的。但同时，它们可能会在国内市场形成自然垄断，而先行者对其他中小企业的示范效应可能难以实现，”ADK的Hong表示。

BHL的Hong指出，若政府和个人支持被引导至错误领域，将浪费公共资源。

越南曾一度拥有亚洲经济体中最高的企业杠杆率：在线能源巨头成本高昂，且其银行业面临流动性约束。“越南的政策方向总体正确。更难的问题在于执行是否能够到位，”世界银行表示。

其他人士认为，若执行得当，这一改革可能在经济中产生连锁效应。

越南私募股权公司RieKong Capital合伙人Tsa07,表示，私营部门改革将为结构、电信和房地产等领域释放重大机遇。

“自1996,年以来，私营部门10小时利润的销售增长是公共部门首次实现盈利的一年，这对国家而言是一笔好交易，也是对国家的好交易——”

以下表格提供英文信息：

GDP数据

人工智能支出推动经济增长 尽管能源危机持续

作者：德温·沃克（DWIN WALKER） - 新加坡报道

新加坡经济在第二季度同比增长13 per cent，得益于全球人工智能支出的激增，以及中东战争对能源市场造成的干扰影响有限。

新加坡贸易与投资部昨日将全年经济增长预期上调至4.5 to 5.1 per cent。此前在5月的预测中，该部门基于全球经济波动的预期，将增长预期设定在2 to 4 per cent之间。

贸易与投资部表示，今年上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长6.1 per cent。

作为国际贸易枢纽，新加坡高度依赖全球供应链的稳定，并需满足重要的石油和天然气交易中心需求——被誉为“亚洲财库”。因此，新加坡被视为全球能源危机中最易受冲击的经济体之一。

“全球能源危机的影响仍在持续——能源价格上涨、供应链中断、家庭和企业成本增加，”新加坡总理黄循财在上周末的国庆演讲中表示。

“尽管面临挑战，新加坡经济依然保持韧性。今年上半年经济增长强劲，我们预计这一势头将持续，”他补充道。

“今年上半年经济增长强劲，我们预计这一势头将持续”

贸易与投资部表示，伊朗战争的影响低于预期，因各国动用了石油储备并转向替代能源。

同时，该部门指出，人工智能领域的投资超出预期，为半导体等相关产品的生产商和进口商带来利好。

“美国四大科技巨头——谷歌、亚马逊、微软和Meta——自2025年人工智能热潮兴起以来，已在美国投入总计$1.3m用于在线服务、先进芯片及其运行所需的电力。

这些投资在今年进一步增加，新加坡正将自身定位为重要的人工智能枢纽。

“它正在改造传统产业，并改变我们的工作方式，”黄循财表示，“在新加坡，我们将充分利用这一机遇，提升生产力，创造更优质的就业岗位。”

就在几天前，新加坡金融管理局（兼具央行和金融监管职能）警告称，若人工智能泡沫破裂，可能对全球经济构成风险，并影响新加坡在该领域的市场份额。

该局表示，全球经济增长、投资及金融市场表现与半导体和数据中心行业密切相关，任何冲击都可能对主要经济体造成威胁。

“如果人工智能投资出现大幅收缩，可能通过企业投资和半导体需求下滑，以及负财富效应，严重削弱全球经济增长，”金管局首席经济学家蔡子健（Tcha Tzu Jan）警告，“全球金融环境的急剧收紧可能随之而来。”

这一警告与部分大型航运公司股价下跌同时发生，因市场担忧人工智能泡沫破裂可能影响新加坡在该领域的市场份额。

新加坡金融管理局表示，全球经济增长、投资及金融市场表现与半导体和数据中心行业密切相关——

Power outages

煤炭大国印尼努力保持电力供应，供应政策适得其反

戴安娜·蒙迪亚（DIANA MUNDIAH）— 雅加达报道

作为全球最大的煤炭生产国之一，印尼近期多次出现停电，导致东南亚最大经济体的工业和企业面临电力供应不稳定的局面。

印尼今年将采矿配额削减了近四分之一，以满足私营和公共部门客户的需求。加之与伊朗战争相关的成本上升，国内石油和天然气交易正转向使用热力煤。

由于供应商难以解决短缺问题，产量随之减半。企业在化石燃料占总发电量三分之二的地区遭受了严重影响。

本周，总统普拉博沃·苏比安托（Prubowu Suluanto）召见能源部长拉希尔·拉巴伊达（Rahil Labaidha），并下令其办公室和国有电力公司PLN“加快处理仍在多个地区发生的停电问题”。

印尼依赖廉价燃煤电厂为其不断增长的采购行业提供动力，该行业是印尼将自身纳入不锈钢和电动汽车全球供应链经济驱动的一部分。这一短期缺口凸显了雅加达对煤炭的依赖，尽管其承诺在12年内逐步淘汰燃煤电厂，但对可再生能源基础设施的投资仍然不足。

“尽管印尼拥有丰富的可再生能源潜力，但其电力行业仍严重依赖煤炭，”能源经济与金融分析研究所（Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis）的能源金融分析师伊斯拉埃尔·科罗纳（Israel Korona）表示。“扩大太阳能、风能和水电规模将增强长期能源安全。”

近期危机的核心是一项长期实施的政策，即所谓的“国内市场义务”（DMO）。根据该政策，所有煤矿企业必须将其四分之一的产量以低于市场价格的水平出售给本地买家，以确保国内供应、稳定价格并保护PLN。

然而，电网面临的压力日益加剧——2030年的煤炭价格上限远低于当前市场价格。这一政策非但未能增加印尼市场的煤炭供应，反而促使部分买家选择支付违约罚款，而非履行义务。

由于能源部将煤炭开采配额从每年7亿吨下调，以稳定价格，可用煤炭供应量进一步缩减。这一举措适得其反，导致短缺问题加剧，中小企业受到冲击。

印尼微型和小型企业协会表示，政府一直在最后时刻寻求补救措施，以应对停电。“生产配额削减是导致停电的主要因素。此外，煤炭价格和质量的长期问题也加剧了市场混乱，”印尼批发商协会表示。

专家认为，未能履行国内配额义务的原因还包括与伊朗冲突相关的生产成本上升。

“印尼对未履行DMO义务的企业已有严格处罚措施。挑战在于确保有足够的原材料、工业和基础设施投资，”科罗纳表示。“更为重要的是，长期解决方案是通过加快可再生能源部署和提高电厂的低效定价，减少对DMO的依赖。”

PLN表示，能源部未回应置评请求。PLN此前否认煤炭短缺影响电力供应，并将问题归咎于爪哇岛两座主要电厂的“技术问题”以及加里曼丹一座电厂的维修工作。

政府最初否认其政策导致停电。能源部长拉巴伊达表示，政府将研究恢复价格上限的可能性。

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2020年8月12日

金融时报

7

供应风险 异常强烈的厄尔尼诺天气模式威胁大多数交易农产品的生产 第15页

公司与市场

特朗普警告罢免国际足联主席将是“错误”

• ● 因凡蒂诺面临辞职呼声日益高涨
• ● 足球机构拒绝投资者计划

塞缪尔·阿西尼

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普警告称，罢免国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺将是一个“严重错误”，因为批评者正加大对这位世界足球管理机构负责人的辞职压力。

“无论出于何种原因，国际足联哪怕只是考虑任何关于因凡蒂诺主席的事情，都将是一个严重错误，”特朗普昨日在其“真实社交”平台上发文称。

“他非常出色，刚刚主持了史上最成功的世界杯，其成功程度是以往的四倍，”特朗普表示，“如果他离开，世界杯将再也无法达到如此成功或盈利的水平。”

因凡蒂诺计划筹集高达£4.5亿的资金，但该计划并非来自投资者，而是来自由特朗普女婿的兄弟约书亚·伊斯特霍恩运营的基金“永恒繁荣”（Thrive Eternal），此举在足球界及其他领域引发了巨大反对。因凡蒂诺搁置了该提案，该提案涉及出售国际足联10%的商业权益，但仍面临辞职压力。

在今夏由美国联合资助的世界杯前后，国际足联与特朗普建立了密切关系。去年，因凡蒂诺向美国总统颁发了国际足联新设的“和平奖”。

在因凡蒂诺领导下，国际足联还与特朗普的“和平委员会”（一个旨在监督枪支问题的组织）建立了合作关系。二人在上月的决赛后共同为获胜球队颁发了世界杯奖杯。

上周，Urfa重申其威胁，称将抵制国际足联的赛事，除非这家世界管理机构提供具有约束力的保证，确保“永远不会再将其治理或赛事向私人所有权开放”。

这一威胁增加了Urfa与亚洲足球联合会（AFC）及中北美洲及加勒比海足球协会（Concacaf）联合创建国际足联赛事替代方案的可能性。

在周一的一封联合信中，Urfa、AFC和Concacaf的高层领导表示，信任已被“彻底破坏”。

美国足球协会作为国内管理机构，也加入了这场辩论。该机构在社交媒体上分享了与Concacaf联合签署的信件，呼吁“鼓励与国际足联治理相邻的交流，以提升透明度和问责制”。

然而，因凡蒂诺拒绝辞职。周六，国际足联表示，主席“已将30多年的职业生涯奉献给欧洲和世界足球”。

国际足联补充道：“越来越明显的是，某些方面正在持续协同破坏国际足联及其主席。”

上周，因凡蒂诺在莫斯科举行了危机会谈，该市将与其他城市共同主办2020年世界杯，并达成一项协议，承认引入私人投资的计划“本应以不同方式处理”。

Urfa、AFC和Concacaf在周一的信中表示，错误不仅仅在于程序：“他们仍未认识到，试图出售国际足联世界杯的股权是一个严重的判断失误——而不仅仅是程序上的过失。”

为继续担任主席，因凡蒂诺需在明年获得国际足联211个会员协会的重新选举。

特朗普媒体集团详见第70页

ATG剧院在伦敦西区的剧目包括《福斯》，并上演《法德灵顿大教堂》- 剧院新闻

成人入场 - 伦敦

好莱坞大亨阿里·伊曼纽尔（Ari Emanuel）以约45亿英镑的价格收购了拥有伦敦西区多家剧院（包括莱塞姆剧院和萨沃伊剧院）的剧院集团，押注现场活动的强劲需求将持续存在。

!

此次收购ATG娱乐集团是伊曼纽尔Mari集团迄今最大的一笔交易。Mari集团去年成立，获得了包括阿波罗全球管理、RoDBot Capital和卡塔尔投资局在内的投资者提供的20亿美元股权融资。

伊曼纽尔昨日在声明中表示，收购ATG反映了其对“现场体验日益增长的影响力及其所营造的热情氛围”的信心。

据两位知情人士透露，Mari集团已同意以约45亿英镑的价格收购ATG，相关条款尚未公开。

Mari与ATG所有者普罗维登斯股权（Providence Equity）的收购谈判最早由《金融时报》于6月19日报道。ATG的业务范围覆盖百老汇剧院，包括纽约冬季花园剧院和正在上演《帕德伯格斯大教堂》的伦敦福克斯剧院。

自2015年以3.5亿英镑收购ATG以来，普罗维登斯通过一系列收购将该公司从40个剧院扩展至英国、美国和欧洲的70个剧院。此次出售将成为这家私募股权公司最成功的退出之一。普罗维登斯在疫情期间向ATG注资超过5000万英镑，帮助其渡过难关。

ATG将加入Mari不断扩大的投资组合，该组合还包括弗里塞音乐节、迈阿密公开赛网球赛和海德公园冬季仙境活动。伊曼纽尔的其他职务还包括担任人才经纪公司WMS集团董事长（旗下艺人包括奥普拉·温弗瑞和马丁·斯科塞斯），以及拥有综合格斗系列赛终极格斗冠军赛（UFC）和WMS的T&O集团首席执行官。

此次收购ATG的交易是在新冠疫情后现场活动门票需求持续强劲的几年后达成的。

伊曼纽尔去年曾表示，他认为随着科技提高人们的生产力，人们将有更多时间和金钱“外出消费”。他在昨日声明中表示：“我最初就是从剧院起步的。我见证了这个行业多次重塑自我，但其影响力只会变得更加强大。”他称“这是对剧院未来发展方向的长期押注”。

ATG首席执行官马克·科尼什（Mark Cornish）表示，Mari是该业务的“合适归宿”，并理解“我们的剧院、幕后团队以及我们与租户、艺术家和观众建立的关系”。

该交易尚需监管部门批准。

布莱尔之子寻求国防科技初创企业融资

万·莱弗斯顿

英国前首相托尼·布莱尔爵士之子尼克·布莱尔创办了一家国防科技初创企业，并正在寻求大规模融资，此时正值该行业快速扩张之际。

据知情人士透露，现年40岁的布莱尔正在与投资者洽谈，为一家名为Pyra的企业筹集约2.5亿美元资金。

知情人士谨慎表示，Pyra正在开发能将不同系统整合为单一产品的技术。但投资洽谈尚未敲定，可能仍有变数。

英国公司登记文件显示，布莱尔于去年11月在伦敦注册了Pyra集团，并担任公司唯一高管。一位配偶知情人士表示：“以客户为先……”

Pyra发言人称：“Pyra的创立旨在服务英国及其盟友的安全利益。在全球国防的关键时期，英国必须转型其主权工业基础和数字能力。我们正以符合这一使命所需的规模和决心打造Pyra。”

布莱尔的另一位兄弟法恩于5月为其教育科技初创企业筹集了7000万美元追加融资，该企业估值目标为1.5亿美元。

尼克·布莱尔此前还共同创办并担任英国软件初创企业Miyral的董事长。Miyral开发建模和构建技术，包括面向国防集团的应用。

Miyral曾于当年获得5000万美元投资，投资方包括欧洲风险投资公司WGA Capital。

布莱尔的融资洽谈正值欧洲国防科技行业风险投资激增之际，欧洲各国政府正加大支出并寻求建立独立能力。

周一，英国无人机拦截初创企业剑桥航空航天宣布完成5亿美元融资，交易估值达36亿美元。

剑桥航空航天加入了英国高估值国防科技企业行列，如机器专业公司Krober科技集团，后者估值约为5亿美元。

根据Pte Mhrak的数据，截至6月底，国防科技行业企业已从西方基金筹集122亿美元资金，几乎是去年同期的两倍。

太阳能发电场是国家电网的关键，但也带来新挑战

能源价格显而易见。即使在政府为鼓励开发商建设太阳能发电场而提供的保障价格下，太阳能仍是一种相对廉价的发电方式。克利夫山（Cleve Hill）发电成本约为每兆瓦时£65，低于燃气电站（含碳排放成本）及近期近海太阳能合同价格。

我参观了由清洁能源基础设施基金管理公司Quisilenook拥有的克利夫山发电场，展示了太阳能的优势与不足。该发电场建于低等级农业用地（源自德国马尔登），其太阳能板占地面积巨大；场地周长达15公里，还包括一个用于储存电网电力的电池厂。

在施工高峰期，每天有多达60辆重型车辆穿行于当地道路，涉及800名工人。如今已恢复平静，仅约40%的员工负责维护太阳能板（通常用清水冲洗以去除灰尘）。这是一个低维护设施，从邻近的自然保护区清晰可见，但对平坦地貌的影响低于预期。

对自然的影响仍存争议，尽管绿色农场（Green Farm）反对在附近的埃塞克斯建设太阳能发电场，克利夫山仍包含120英亩的生物多样性项目，包括种子苗床和猎鸟降落带。有证据表明，管理良好的太阳能发电场对鸟类和野生动物的益处可能超过传统农业（模拟杀虫剂和化学品的使用）。

该设施三分之二的电力已与德克萨斯签订合同，英国太阳能增长势头依然强劲。Quisilenook已在英格兰中部地区收购了一个与克利夫山规模相当的太阳能发电场，预计将于2016.年开始运营。今年2月，政府签署了8,900个新太阳能发电场的合同，相当于约12个克利夫山的规模。

大多数反对者并非原则上反对该技术。他们主张太阳能板不应建在乡村地区，而应建在“仓库、办公楼等建筑的屋顶上”，正如惠特利（Whately）所言。这在行业组织“英国太阳能”（Solar Energy UK）看来也至关重要，该组织估计，屋顶太阳能板的发电容量每年增长约1,8GW。

但太阳能发电场除规模经济优势外，还有其他显著优点。克利夫山毗邻一个连接近海风电场的输电站，一排输电塔延伸至远方的伦敦。这使其通过高压电缆直接接入电网，而非像本地配电网中的零散屋顶太阳能板那样。

因此，克利夫山能够顺利融入电网，尽管太阳能作为一种波动性能源，不如本地燃料稳定。新挑战在于，包括夏季本地太阳能发电高峰在内的因素，可能将全国电力需求拉低至电网稳定所需的最低水平。最终的风险是，可能出现类似去年西班牙发生的电网故障。

英国传统上依赖本地燃料，从未面临过此类挑战。随着太阳能的发展，英国不得不在能源价格、环境、地方偏好和国家利益之间做出新的权衡。克利夫山如今一片宁静，即使其太阳能板仍在持续发电。但争论远未结束。

©2020 Solar Energy, Inc. 版权所有。

尽管如此，对一个饱受高能源价格困扰的国家而言，太阳能的益处不容忽视。

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10

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金融时报

2026年8月12日 星期三

公司与市场

银行

高盛员工在巴西调查中被点名

警方称两名高管涉嫌癌症诊所欺诈案

目击者：PISILAB - EPICAN 杰西卡·富兰克林 - 纽约

巴西警方已将高盛两名员工列为涉嫌欺诈案的嫌疑人，该调查源于一起关于癌症治疗公司的股东纠纷。2019年警方指控称，高盛作为当时Onoclinicus在巴西服务福利公司的投资方，向股东隐瞒了该诊所的所有权结构。警方称，高盛随后将股份转让给美国投资基金Centuaries，最终导致少数股东蒙受财务损失。

这些投资者——希望有机会套现其股份——认为Centuaries持有的15%股权本应触发该基金的强制要约收购。

这家癌症护理专业公司五年前曾由高盛推动在圣保罗证券交易所上市，现已成为法律和监管纠纷的焦点。

警方的起诉意见书指控称，高盛两名高管费利佩·格拉·阿科斯塔（Felipe Guerra Acosta）和纳坦·利马·雷尼希（Natan Lima Reinig）明知参与了一项旨在误导Onoclinicus、证券监管机构CVM、交易所运营商B3及投资者的计划。

两人均未被正式起诉，检察官需决定是否提起诉讼程序。高盛发言人表示这些指控“毫无依据”，并称“我们仍然相信我们的行为是恰当的”。

Onoclinicus上月申请庭外重组，此前曾与债务陷入僵局。其股价已跌至“仙股”水平，自首次公开募股（IPO）以来几乎全部价值尽失。

警方指控称，高盛在上市前未向投资者披露其持有的部分公司股份由Centuaries持有，该基金由前埃克森美孚高管约翰·阿诺德（John Arnold）运营。阿诺德的发言人拒绝置评。

Onoclinicus的公司章程中有一项条款规定，任何投资者持股超过15%时必须发起强制要约收购，该门槛自2019年起适用于Centuaries。

Centuaries则辩称无需收购所有Onoclinicus股份，因其在IPO前（通过高盛基金）即为投资者，并认为该条款仅适用于IPO后增持至该规模的股东。

CVM（巴西证券监管机构）正在审理另一起要求Centuaries发起强制要约收购的案件。该机构的技术团队已驳回Centuaries的主张，此事将很快提交CVM董事会裁决。

投资者之一的拉塔奇资本（Latache Capital）表示，“相信并尊重巴西司法系统的独立性和能力”。

Onoclinicus官网显示，拉塔奇资本持有该公司14.6%的股份。

据其领英资料，阿科斯塔是高盛成长股权团队的副总裁，而雷尼希曾担任Onoclinicus董事会成员。

高盛于2015年通过资产管理部门首次入股Onoclinicus，2018年收购控股权，并于2021年推动其上市。

布特里克斯·朗热尔补充报道

工业板块

全球最大肉类加工企业JBS迎来新任CEO

WICHAEL POSILAB - BRAZILH

巴西巴蒂斯塔商业王朝的一位继承人将出任JBS首席执行官，这家全球最大的肉类加工企业将重新由其控股家族成员掌舵。

现年34岁的韦斯利·巴蒂斯塔·菲略（Wesley Batista Filho）将于明年1月接任这家总部位于圣保罗的全球食品集团的首席执行官一职。

巴蒂斯塔·菲略目前领导JBS的美国业务部门，是前JBS首席执行官韦斯利·巴蒂斯塔（Wesley Batista）之子，也是公司创始人若泽·巴蒂斯塔·索布里尼奥（José Batista Sobrinho）的孙子。JBS的美国业务部门在销售额上规模最大。

“这是一次管理上的延续，”巴蒂斯塔·菲略在接受《金融时报》采访时表示。“JBS拥有巨大的增长轨迹，将继续推进多元化战略，并拓展新的地域市场。”

消息公布后，周一JBS在美国上市的股票下跌，截至盘后交易时段跌幅达4%。

即将上任的新任CEO将接替吉尔伯托·托马佐尼（Gilberto Tomazoni），后者自2014年起担任该职位，并将在过渡期后转任副董事长。

托马佐尼是首位非巴蒂斯塔家族成员担任JBS首席执行官，此前该家族最知名的人物——亿万富翁兄弟韦斯利和Joesty卷入了一场腐败丑闻。

自21世纪初以来，这对兄弟将其父亲于1913年创立的屠宰场发展成为全球动物蛋白生产的巨头。他们在巴西被视为最具进取精神的企业家之一，并仍然是JBS的控股股东。JBS于去年在纽约证券交易所上市。

JBS的业务范围涵盖金融、皮革、乳制品和能源等多个领域。

巴蒂斯塔·菲略13年前开始在JBS工作。“我了解他的执行能力，他思考挑战的方式，我非常有信心这是正确的一步，”托马佐尼在谈及其继任者时表示。

这位即将上任的CEO将东南亚描述为公司的“新地理前沿”。

JBS周一表示，第二季度净利润为$10.2，收入增长14%，达到$25.9。

投资者争相参与Unitree IPO

中国散户投资者正竞相抢购一家领先人形机器人公司的股份，反映出中国科技股的火爆行情。

根据上交所披露的文件，Unitree首次公开募股（IPO）的散户认购部分超额认购逾3,000倍，尽管公司已增加向需求最旺盛的小型投资者配售的股份数量，本月仍将在上海上市。

在IPO前夕，Unitree以每股$6.86（合£12.15）的价格，向市场配售了相当于其流通股10%的40倍股份，募集资金约$900mn，使公司估值达到$9bn。

散户投资者获配总发行量的10%，其余部分由机构投资者认购，包括对冲基金和该公司创始人王兴宁。

中国市场对相关科技股的狂热推高了投资者热情。今年以来，中国科技主题的“星30”指数已上涨超过27%，远超基准“沪深3045”指数20%的涨幅。

这一热潮也出现在监管部门收紧对中国公民投资美股的限制之际。

Unitree由王兴宁于2016年创立，已成为中国机器人行业的领军企业。其机器人在春节晚会上表演舞蹈、翻跃和拳击等节目，使其成为家喻户晓的品牌。

去年，公司的成功为王兴宁赢得了在习近平主席会见时的前排座位。

散户对Unitree的认购热情远超上月CXM75大型IPO，后者超额认购倍数为200倍。

“中国人形机器人行业正处于快速发展阶段，Unitree是这一领域的典型代表，”光大证券国际经理Koinei Yu表示。此次发行使Unitree的市盈率达到20%，市销率接近36倍（基于去年业绩）。公司去年交付了1,500台人形机器人。IPO募集资金的最大部分将用于Rothfilm（3D / Mate）开发机器人的AI模型。

中信证券担任本次IPO的保荐人及主承销商。尽管美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）上月宣布对人形机器人采取限制措施（被广泛视为针对中国产品），但Unitree在招股书中表示，FCC的举措“不会影响公司现有主力产品在美国市场的持续销售”，但新产品可能受到影响。

Unitree表示，海外市场贡献了其逾40%的收入，其中美国占比在15.2%至18.4%之间（视年份而定）。摩根士丹利分析师王张在近期报告中指出，随着人形机器人在物理世界中应用“具身AI”技术，美中两国在该领域的竞争日趋激烈。他表示：“随着行业加速发展，我们认为这可能是美中‘具身AI’竞争的开端。”

William Sandbach驻香港

科技

OpenAI 道德主管离职，加入不足一年

核心选择与部件编号：0000 - 旧金山

OpenAI 的道德主管克洛艾·巴库拉（Chloé Bakular）在加入不到一年后离职，此前已有多名安全研究人员相继离开，公司在如何开发其 AI 模型方面面临越来越多的新质疑。

巴库拉于去年年初以 AI 道德主管身份加入这家 ChatGPT 开发商，并于上月离职，公司未作任何公开宣布。此前，她曾担任 Meta 首席伦理官。

巴库拉的离职是 OpenAI 近期多起高层变动之一，包括约翰内斯·海因里希（Johannes Heidecke，安全系统主管）和乔舒亚·阿希亚姆（Joshua Achiam，首席财务官兼前科学副主管）的离职。

这家估值达 860亿美元（约合602亿美元）的明星初创公司近期因 AI 模型开发问题承受压力，此前公司承认其系统曾被黑客入侵，攻击了另一家公司的数据。

这一事件加剧了全球对 AI 可能威胁数字基础设施安全的担忧，促使美国政府限制强大模型的发布。上周五，OpenAI 表示将放缓其即将推出的模型的开发进度，以加强内部安全控制。

“我们一直在边飞边造飞机。道德其实是每个人的责任。”

巴库拉曾在伦敦大学学院、天普大学和普林斯顿大学担任学术职务。在 Meta 工作的六年间，她开发并领导了 AI 伦理项目，并将相关原则融入 Instagram 和 Facebook 等产品。

科技公司聘请伦理学家负责研究技术对用户及更广泛社会的影响。他们的工作可能涉及产品开发和监管事务。

AI 开发商越来越多地招募伦理学家和哲学家，以应对日益强大且类人化的系统所引发的理论问题。

据一位了解巴库拉职责的人士透露，她在 OpenAI 的主要工作重点是模型开发的伦理方法、企业与 AI 的互动方式以及关于机器意识的争论。该人士还表示，她是公司唯一专职的伦理学家，且目前尚无接替人选。

“我们感谢克洛艾的贡献，”OpenAI 发言人表示，“在 OpenAI，道德并不由某个所有者或团队独自承担，AI 的伦理考量已从个体层面融入模型构建流程，由多个研究团队共同推动。”

该发言人补充称，公司近期已引入多项安全系统，以防止模型出现不当行为。

巴库拉拒绝置评。

“我们一直在边飞边造飞机。”巴库拉在近期的一次 AI 会议上对观众表示，“道德其实是每个人的责任，这让我们不得不思考，究竟由谁来主导这项工作。”

朱莉·塔罗尔迪 观点

科技

AI驱动的钻探效率提升将增加排放

玛莎·缪尔 - 纽约报道

由两名前微软员工牵头的一份报告指出，石油和天然气行业通过人工智能提升生产力，将大幅增加全球排放量，且无法抵消石油和能源领域的潜在收益。

上游石油和天然气开采商可利用人工智能将钻探成本降低10%，发现新油气储藏并提高采收率——使资源更为丰富且易于开采。

人工智能还能帮助太阳能和风能等可再生能源行业提高产能，为石油和天然气行业提供支持。例如，通过预测性维护和评估工厂储能调度的最佳时机，优化可再生能源的利用。

本周发表于《自然》（Nature）期刊的报告发现，这些排放节约将被太阳能发电扩张所抵消的10倍。

报告作者隶属于气候倡导组织“能源排放运动”（Enhanced Emissions Campaign）。他们指出，若人工智能在所有能源行业普及，每年可能向大气增加5亿至18亿吨二氧化碳。

报告预计，人工智能在可再生能源领域每年可减少3亿吨二氧化碳排放，但化石燃料行业的效率提升将完全抵消这一成果。为实现净零排放，整个能源行业的生产力需提高4%至5%，才能抵消化石燃料带来的排放增加。

“AI驱动的生产力提升带来的排放量，远超其避免的排放量——这强化了化石能源的主导地位，而非减少其影响。”

公用事业和科技巨头正大规模扩建燃气发电厂。根据全球能源监测组织（Global Energy Monitor）的数据，去年美国在建燃气发电装机容量几乎翻了两番。数据中心开发商也在使用燃气和柴油发动机，理由是美国新建电厂的审批周期过长。美国目前正寻求48亿立方英尺燃料。

美国已评估了六座海上燃气废弃物的影响。

研究人员表示，这一评估忽略了人工智能在提升燃料性能方面的潜力，其效益可能超过数据中心的直接环境影响。

美国已评估48亿立方英尺燃料的影响。

航空航天与国防

韩国集团出价12亿美元收购奥斯塔美国业务

首尔某约翰 A 报道

韩国最大的国防企业韩华航空航天（Haneche Aerospace）已向澳大利亚造船商奥斯塔（Austal）的美国造船业务提出初步报价，最高达12亿美元，以扩大其在美国海军供应链中的角色。

奥斯塔昨日表示，将允许韩华航空航天在不同国家开展4项业务，并对其美国业务进行要约收购。该业务向美国海军及运输部门销售舰船。

此次报价是在韩国政府多次尝试收购澳大利亚主要造船商未果后提出的。去年，堪培拉允许韩华航空航天将其在奥斯塔的持股比例提高至19%，但对其在澳大利亚这一重要国防企业中的影响力设置了限制。

奥斯塔表示，韩华航空航天的最新报价不包括其在澳大利亚、菲律宾和越南的业务。

韩华航空航天拥有全球十大造船商之一，一直在积极努力争夺更大的美国造船市场份额，受到特朗普总统可能放宽海军舰艇生产限制的迹象提振。

这家澳大利亚造船商超过45%的收入来自美国市场，韩华航空航天将这家陷入困境的公司视为进入美国海军造船市场的门户。该报价较奥斯塔美国业务估值溢价近8.75亿美元，基于102.4亿美元的参考值。

奥斯塔股价昨日上涨13%，将公司市值推升至19亿澳元（约合12亿英镑），而韩华航空航天股价上涨0.12%。

奥斯塔表示，其位于阿拉巴马州莫比尔的美国业务预计在截至6月30日的财年将录得2.7亿澳元的营业亏损，原因是部分历史合同成本上升。

自俄罗斯于2022年对乌克兰发动全面入侵以来，韩国凭借强劲订单——尤其是来自东欧国家的订单——已跻身全球10大国防出口国之列，出口规模达45亿美元。

作为自行火炮的主要出口商，韩华航空航天的股价在过去两年内因海外订单强劲几乎翻了两番，欧洲在特朗普推动下加大采购力度。

在全球订单生产商中，韩华航空航天的新订单增幅最大，其领先优势从2022年的49.4亿美元跃升至2023年第二季度的69.5亿美元。

今年上半年，该公司销售额同比增长27.2%，至12.8万亿韩元，营业利润同比增长64%，至1.1万亿韩元。预计到2023年，销售额和营业利润将分别达到28万亿韩元和2.5万亿韩元。

韩华航空航天于2018年收购了宾夕法尼亚州的菲尔利普造船厂（Philips Shipyard），并对其基础设施进行了现代化改造，以期获得更多海军维护、修理、运营及造船合同。

国际业务

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2020年8月12日 星期三

金融时报

11

公司与市场

阿斯利康放弃与百时美施贵宝的巨额并购交易，因投资者反对

拟议的450亿美元交易引发对英国制药商管线及其领导层战略的质疑

PT报道

阿斯利康首席执行官帕斯卡·索里奥特曾多次向投资者表示，无需通过大型交易即可在下个十年初实现600亿英镑的收入目标。然而，在公开表态背后，他一直在寻求一项巨额并购。

据多位知情人士透露，索里奥特近年来在寻求变革性合作方面进展甚微，其与美国竞争对手高管的初步接洽均遭拒绝。

在总部位于美国的百时美施贵宝首席执行官克里斯·伯纳，索里奥特找到了一位愿意考虑大胆跨大西洋交易的合作伙伴。

两家公司在整个春季和夏季进行了谈判。据部分知情人士透露，截至本月初，关于一项主要基于股票的交易（阿斯利康将以溢价收购百时美施贵宝）的讨论已进入实质阶段。

7月底，阿斯利康的市值为2100亿英镑（2600亿美元），而百时美施贵宝的市值为2270亿美元，正在恢复拟议交易的规模。

双方已接近就价格达成协议，并正与美国大型银行讨论为未完成的美元现金部分提供融资。

知情人士称，谈判已进展到阿斯利康和百时美施贵宝计划在8月中旬宣布交易的阶段。法律和财务顾问正紧锣密鼓地为这一目标日期做准备。

但《金融时报》8月5日（周一）报道称，两家公司正就一项价值1490亿美元的合并交易进行谈判，该交易将创建全球收入最高的制药商，交易的重磅审查随即瓦解。

到8月5日伦敦市场开盘时，阿斯利康董事会已准备终止交易。

该交易消息在制药行业和英国引发震动，阿斯利康作为富时100指数中第二大公司，被视为英国工业的皇冠明珠。

白厅官员的担忧尤为强烈，英国政府为此成立了一个跨部门团队监测事态发展，由英国首相的首席商业顾问万斯·钱德拉领导，其团队与工会及内阁办公室合作，部分知情人士透露。

官员们担心阿斯利康可能利用并购成为最新一家将重心转移至美国的英国公司。

阿斯利康股价大跌，8月5日收盘下跌9%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情以来最糟糕的交易日。

投资者对阿斯利康甚至考虑进行巨额并购的想法表示强烈反对。

到8月5日晚间，由董事长米歇尔·德蒙领导的阿斯利康董事会已下令终止谈判。截至目前，公司尚未正式就此事发表评论。

阿斯利康和百时美施贵宝均拒绝对本文置评。

两家制药商之间的交易本将标志着大型制药商在千禧年之交进行并购的重现时代，

此前的并购浪潮在过去十年末逐渐消退，百时美施贵宝以740亿美元收购生物技术公司新基（Celgene）的交易曾引发投资者强烈反对，且未能实现部分投资者期望的回报。

“这一想法似乎来自新基时代，”哥伦比亚 Threadneedle 基金的医疗保健投资者科斯塔·克莱曼（同时持有阿斯利康和百时美施贵宝股份）表示。“阿斯利康被视为拥有令人印象深刻的增长前景，为何要收购百时美施贵宝的专利悬崖，而不去收购有前景的生物技术公司呢？”

这些谈判引发了投资者对阿斯利康在其产品管线信心的担忧，该管线在业内属于最深厚之列，预计将在未来12个月内公布一系列重大肿瘤学研究结果。

2023年11月任命克里斯·伯纳（Chris Boerner）为首席执行官的B8Bi，正面临专利悬崖，公司近一半收入可能因专利到期而受到威胁，最早或于2028年出现——这进一步增加了阿斯利康的复杂性。投资者还对索里耶特（Soriet）在其担任最高职位的第15个年头的战略提出质疑。“在我看来，这将是一个错误，”阿斯利康股东、总部位于苏黎世的AFU医疗保健投资公司（AFU Healthcare Investments）投资组合经理卢卡斯·李（Lukas Lee）表示。“索里耶特已经建立了自己的遗产，过去几年表现非常出色。没有必要做这样的事情。”

除了英国的政治担忧，这笔交易还面临其他障碍。投资者担心如此大规模的交易会招致反垄断审查。两家公司均拥有规模庞大、备受推崇的肿瘤学部门。

甚至在《金融时报》报道谈判消息导致股价下跌之前，这笔交易对阿斯利康的成本就已变得更加高昂。B8Bi上月公布了乐观的第二季度业绩，推动其股价上涨，而阿斯利康的神经损伤药物Wainna在一项针对心脏病患者的试验中未能达到主要目标，拖累了其股价。

尽管投资者对潜在的B8Bi交易反应强烈，但索里耶特的任期在许多方面却是以大规模交易为标志。

上任不到两年，他便击退了美国竞争对手辉瑞提出的£40bn收购要约。抵制辉瑞的行动成为阿斯利康扭转局面的号召，当时该公司在业内处于落后地位，索里耶特承诺到2023年将收入几乎翻倍至$42bn。

凭借与日本第一三共（Daiichi Sankyo）在一款重要抗癌药物上的高利润合作，以及斥资$59bn收购罕见病药物制造商Alexion Pharmaceuticals，阿斯利康提前实现了2023年的目标。

阿斯利康首席执行官帕斯卡·索里耶特。该公司在英国剑桥（下图）和美国马里兰州（左图）设有设施，84town，百时美施贵宝首席执行官克里斯·伯纳

一年后，索里耶特设定了到2030年实现B8Bbn销售额的新目标，许多分析师预计该公司将实现这一目标。阿斯利康去年创造了$8.8bn的收入。

与B8Bi的整合本可将合并后的集团年收入推高至$100bn以上。这还将进一步将阿斯利康的重心转向其最大市场美国，远离英国。

索里耶特曾公开批评英国公共卫生系统不愿为最佳药物买单，并对投资者对他£277mn薪酬方案的审视表示不满，尽管这一数额低于许多美国竞争对手。今年2月，阿斯利康在纽约证券交易所上市，以提升其10人董事会的地位，同时努力拓展国际投资者基础，尽管公司总部仍设在英国。

分析师表示，合并可能伴随着大规模的成本削减行动。这还将使阿斯利康面临B8Bi明星药物收入下滑的风险，其中最主要的是血液稀释剂Elapin，该药将于2028年面临仿制药竞争。

“财务协同效应相对容易建模，但历史表明，在整合两个组织的同时，保持科学创新和研发效率是更大的挑战，”阿斯利康股东、Earthtown高级投资总监埃万杰洛斯·安蒂努科斯（Evangelos Antinoukos）表示。

一位不愿透露姓名的B8Bi股东认为，与更优秀的竞争对手合并的逻辑是清晰的。但对这家英国制药商而言，“感觉阿斯利康只是在英格兰之外随波逐流。”

报道：纽约的奥利弗·巴顿、詹姆斯·丰塔内尔·汗和帕特里克·坦普尔-韦斯特，伦敦的詹姆斯·比克菲尔德、安娜·阿多珀和艾玛·达什利 其他报道：阿拉什·曼祖迪

媒体

特朗普集团亏损扩大，转向核聚变业务

亚历克斯·罗杰斯 — 华盛顿 — 13 / 07 / 20

唐纳德·特朗普的媒体公司第二季度报告巨额亏损，因放弃加密货币交易、推进出售其Truth Social帖子快速访问权的计划，并专注于转向商业上尚未验证的核聚变业务。

特朗普媒体与科技集团（TMTG）报告第二季度亏损$150，收入$1.7，总资产近20亿加元。今年上半年净亏损达$644，而去年同期为$12。TMTG将亏损主要归咎于比特币价格下跌。

该公司表示，正推进今年与TAE Technologies的$6合并交易。这家能源公司尚未从其核聚变业务中获得任何收入，但计划在2021年投入运营一座核聚变工厂。

“这样的公司本不应存在，”TMTG临时首席执行官凯文·麦甘恩在周一业绩发布后表示。“我们应完全掌控我们的媒体平台，围绕一个简单理念：我们的技术、我们的基础设施、我们的命运。我们相信这一原则同样适用于能源。”

他表示，在电力需求上升的背景下，能源将成为“战略资产”。

特朗普在2021年支持者袭击国会大厦后创立了TMTG——Truth Social的母公司，当时Facebook、Instagram、X和YouTube暂停了他的账号。

特朗普在2024年赢得大选后，TMTG购入了数千枚比特币。该公司近期推出了Truth Social API，向投资者提供总统市场影响力强的公开帖子的快速访问权限，年费在$6169至每月$3763之间。麦甘恩表示，TMTG正在为散户交易者“扩展”服务，并与“超级交易商、部分最大的新闻机构及大型语言模型开发商”进行“积极对话”。

TMTG的股价今年已下跌近30%。首席执行官凯文·南斯于4月辞职。

美国总统的信托基金持有TMTG 1.22亿股股票，价值超过50亿加元。特朗普是该信托的唯一受益人。TMTG已放弃进一步扩展加密货币业务，专注于与TAE的合并，并已在交易完成前向该核聚变初创公司投入$250。

TAE成立于1999年，是该行业资金最充足的团队之一，但其融资进度已落后于竞争对手。该公司多次推迟商业核聚变的时间表，迄今尚无公司实现商业核聚变。核聚变旨在通过将原子核置于超高温等离子体中，重现为太阳提供动力的反应，而非像传统核电站那样分裂原子。

怀疑者调侃称，商业核聚变“永远还需20年”。

根据Pitchbook的数据，私营核聚变公司已吸引超过$1.2的投资，科技巨头和能源公司押注于从相对丰富的燃料中获取廉价电力的“圣杯目标”。

丹尼尔·托马斯补充报道

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金融时报

2024年8月15日星期三

公司与市场

英国“主权”AI的野心寄托于小型初创企业

伦敦Cosine获政府支持 但缺乏海外竞争对手的资源

詹姆斯·约翰 — 伦敦报道

英国打造“主权”AI模型的计划，寄托在一家仅有约30名员工、融资仅$15mn的伦敦初创企业身上。

由首席执行官阿利斯泰尔·普伦（Alistair Pullen）和李婷（Tyng Li）创立的Cosine，正在开发Lumen Sovereign——一款由政府支持、与KAE Systems、普华永道和劳埃德银行集团等公司合作开发的前沿AI模型。

官员们将其描述为“英国首个完全主权的前沿AI模型”。但也有人质疑，该公司是否具备足够的人才、计算资源和资金来实现这一目标。

“我们在这一领域确实有过往成绩。我们曾在大型模型上开展过真正的大规模工作，并切实提升了它们的性能，”普伦在接受《金融时报》采访时表示。

该项目的推出，正值各国政府越来越重视AI主权及对关键技术的控制。

此前，英国曾表示将为Cosine提供其“汉巴德”（hambard）超级计算机的访问权限，并一度禁止外国团体访问Anthropic的Mythos和Fable模型，进一步加剧了对国家安全及对海外AI供应商依赖的担忧。

然而，挑战依然严峻。该公司仅筹集了$15mn资金，与法国Mistral等竞争对手投入的数十亿加元，以及OpenAI和Anthropic获得的更大规模资金相比，相去甚远。

尽管如此，Cosine仍是英国为数不多从零开始构建前沿AI模型的公司之一——这一领域目前由资金雄厚的美国和中国企业主导。

普伦表示，Cosine并未试图在所有应用领域与OpenAI和Anthropic竞争，

![图片占位符]

![图片占位符]

而是通过为高度监管行业（包括金融服务和国防）的客户调整和训练大型语言模型，积累了专业知识。在这些行业中，AI系统需在企业自有服务器上运行。

普伦认为，这项工作为Cosine开发Lumen Sovereign奠定了技术基础。“从头构建模型所需的工作，与我们过去所做的工作非常相似，只是规模可能扩大了几个数量级，”他说道。

该公司于2022年成立，此前普伦认为大型语言模型将彻底改变软件开发。他与曾在多家科技初创企业（包括已倒闭的支付公司Ziglo和加密货币交易所Lams）担任高管的李婷合作，着手打造他们所称的“AI软件工程师”。在加入竞争激烈的初创企业孵化器Y Combinator后，两人获得了OpenAI模型的早期访问权限，并对其进行了针对软件工程任务的微调。

但更大的竞争对手在自动化编码工具领域已建立领先优势，尤其是Anthropic发布的Claude Code。

这一经历迫使Cosine重新思考战略。与最大的AI实验室正面竞争不再是首选，Cosine转而专注于为监管行业构建AI系统——这项工作为Lumen Sovereign的开发奠定了基础。

Cosine正在使用“混合专家”（mixture of experts）框架构建其模型，这一方法由中国的DeepSeek推广。其架构基于Mistral的Large 3模型，但普伦表示，Lumen Sovereign的规模将是其两倍左右。

最大的制约因素是计算能力。普伦估计，“汉巴德”将提供训练模型所需约90%的计算能力，其余部分将来自英国的私有数据中心。

与OpenAI和Anthropic不同，Cosine并不打算自行运营该模型。相反，它计划将Lumen Sovereign提供给其他方部署，从而避免大规模运行AI模型所需的巨额成本。

“这个技术看起来很棒，”一位熟悉 Cosine 的风险投资人表示，但补充道，“他们需要筹集数亿英镑的投资才能具备竞争力，而目前他们在这条路上才刚起步。”

普伦承认这一挑战。

“我们在这个领域确实有过往成绩。我们曾在大型模型上开展过真正的大规模工作。”

Cosine 希望在 9 月前开始与合作伙伴分享“检查点”——即 Lumen Sovereign 训练过程中的快照，并计划在 10 月进行更广泛的公开发布。

该公司计划在今年晚些时候启动一轮融资，为下一阶段的开发提供资金。

这笔资金还将用于大规模招聘。Cosine 尚未从全球顶尖 AI 实验室招募到研究人员，普伦承认无法与 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 提供的薪酬待遇相匹敌。

相反，他希望在小团队中构建前沿模型的机会能吸引那些在大型组织中“被边缘化”的工程师。

分析人士认为，英国初创企业可获得的资金不足将限制 Cosine 的宏伟抱负。对此，普伦表示他希望员工能保持“一种健康的不服输心态”，并告诉他们：“看，我们能证明自己有能力做到。我们绝对能做成这件事。”蒂姆·布拉德肖补充报道

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2020年8月13日 星期三

金融时报

13

公司与市场

大宗商品·原材料

厄尔尼诺现象威胁全球交易量最大的农产品

天气模式将成为自1950年以来最强之一，加剧粮食短缺和通胀风险

苏珊娜·兰圭 - COCOO

不断增强的厄尔尼诺现象正威胁着全球交易量最大的部分农产品的生产，导致价格剧烈波动，并增加粮食短缺和广泛通胀的风险。

这种每两到七年发生一次的天气模式，现已表现为严重的暴雨和干旱，并已冲击咖啡和可可价格，因投资者预期从巴西到西非及东南亚的作物将受损。

安得拉咖啡价格自6月初以来上涨约30%，至每磅83.32加元。此轮上涨包括47年来最大的六次单日涨幅。

可可价格波动同样剧烈。纽约期货价格从6月中旬的每吨约83,500加元上涨63%以上，在7月9日达到八个月高点84,455加元，随后回落至上周四的83,690加元，仍比6月水平高出40%以上。

Rabelbank的Anduro指出，尽管咖啡和可可“具有截然不同的基本面”，但两者价格之间的相关性正在显著上升，表明投资者正在软商品领域普遍加入“厄尔尼诺风险溢价”。

ECR的计算显示，强厄尔尼诺事件通常会使全球粮食商品价格上涨9%。

Jiffriots的经济学家警告称：“在当前因美-乌战争导致商品价格已面临上行压力的情况下，这一影响可能会更大。”

美国国家海洋和大气管理局上月表示，当前厄尔尼诺现象持续至明年春季的概率为97%，且在今年10月至12月期间发展为“非常强”的概率为80%，这将使其跻身自1950年以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件之列。

在农民已面临伊朗战争期间能源和商品流动中断导致的化肥短缺之际，这一天气威胁再度来袭。

DW分析师沃伦·帕特森（Warren Patterson）和蒂斯·盖耶（Thijs Geijer）表示：“厄尔尼诺有可能波及全球粮食和农业部门，并最终影响全球经济。”

化肥短缺可能迫使农民减少施肥，而作物此时正面临干旱、高温或过量降雨，导致植物更难抵御不利天气。

“目前，我最担心的是小麦和大米，”联合国粮食及农业组织首席经济学家马克西莫·托雷斯（Máximo Torres）表示。他补充称，厄尔尼诺与澳大利亚（主要小麦生产国）和印度（全球最大大米生产国）化肥使用量下降的叠加效应，正威胁着产量。“这是一种危险的复合效应。”

根据联合国世界粮食计划署的数据，厄尔尼诺可能在明年年底前将至少4000万人推入严重粮食不安全状态。

“厄尔尼诺对数百万本已脆弱人群的粮食安全构成巨大威胁，”世界粮食计划署代理执行主任卡尔·布卢姆（Carl Blum）表示。

厄尔尼诺的首个实体供应冲击已在秘鲁显现，该国自5月起暂停鳀鱼捕捞，原因是太平洋沿岸海水异常升温。

1.1.1.1.

联合国粮食及农业组织首席经济学家表示，厄尔尼诺与澳大利亚（主要小麦生产国）和印度（全球最大大米生产国）化肥使用量下降的叠加效应，正威胁着产量。

[版面噪声，已略]

企业与市场

英国需要更多投资者，而非提高投资税收

马特·本琴纳

市场洞察

英国面临严重的投资缺口。数百万个人被困在现金中，辛勤劳动的成果被通胀侵蚀，同时错失了通过纪律性投资带来的长期财务安全。

据估计，超过£600bn的资金属于“过剩现金”，本可用于投资。这不仅限制了个人的财富创造，也削弱了国家的增长前景——深度、广泛且流动性强的资本市场是强劲经济的命脉。

没有单一解决方案能解决这一问题。投资者需要更多有益、简单且直观的投资选择。金融教育和指导需覆盖全国更多人群，企业应简化从现金到投资的转换流程。

政府也能发挥作用。它已在培育更强大的零售投资文化方面取得进展。还可通过政策确定性、支持经济增长的监管以及鼓励投资的税收结构进一步推动。

近期有关提高资本利得税税率的建议与这一目标背道而驰。一项公认的经济学原则是：对某物征税越多，其供给越少。若增加投资是目标，提高投资回报的税收只会适得其反。

除了阻碍投资，将资本利得税税率提高至与所得税相同，还抹杀了一个关键区别——投资回报在经济上并不等同于工资。

工资是定期支付的劳动报酬。投资回报则不确定。投资者将已纳税的资金投入其中，承担部分或全部亏损的风险，可能需等待10年才能获得回报。将两者同等对待，忽视了一方是劳动所得，另一方则是承担时间风险的不确定回报。

看似微小的税收上调，其影响可能远超大多数人预期。以某人在税收优惠账户外投资£600、年回报率10%为例。

假设其24英镑年度资本利得免税额已用尽，按24%（现行资本利得税税率）征税后，其收益为42英镑。若按42%征税。

提高资本利得税将有悖于支持英国经济增长的目标

这使他们最终剩余3,300 英镑。税率上升了21个百分点，而投资者的税后回报却下降了近20%。

人们会对激励做出反应，而显著提高投资回报税率会改变风险收益的权衡。调查显示，英国消费者在估计20年投资期内亏损的概率时，普遍高估了约数倍。

对于本已犹豫是否投资的家庭而言，回报中更小的份额可能足以让他们将资金继续持有现金。其他人可能会推迟出售投资、更多地关注税收优惠，或转向其他市场。

这些因素也延伸至私募市场。企业家和企业主通常依赖私募投资来获得发展所需的资本。蓬勃发展的企业创造就业机会、产品和服务，惠及消费者，并带来世界最强经济体所具备的活力。

更高的资本利得税将降低投资者的预期回报，削弱他们在英国部署资本的意愿和能力。

英国需要一个适应当前形势的资本利得税制度。政府不能在计划从回报中分走更大份额的同时，要求人们增加投资、企业家承担更多风险、资本支持成长型企业。

因此，任何改革都必须审视持有期、通胀影响、税收减免以及资本利得税如何与亏损、养老金和一般投资账户相协调。

还有一个更广泛的信心问题。当风险稳定且可理解时，投资者更愿意控制资本并承担风险。

对资本利得税、养老金或亏损的反复猜测会助长谨慎情绪。这给了人们另一个等待的理由，而我们需要他们做的是规划、投资并长期积累财富。

政府已正确强调其促进经济增长和零售投资参与的目标。它需要通过一个简单的测试来评判任何改革——是否有助于更多人自信投资，并让更多资本流向生产性企业？

这个问题的答案将在很大程度上决定英国的投资文化是增强还是停滞。

马特·本切纳（Matt Benchenner）是哈格里夫斯·兰斯道恩（Hargreaves Lansdown）的首席执行官

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12月11日 / 线下会议 / 东京

产业政策、供应链重构和脱碳正在加速美洲新一轮投资周期，为日本企业提供了难得的窗口，以扩大制造业、能源和基础设施布局，贴近客户和战略供应链。

《投资美洲：日本专场》汇聚日本企业决策者、美国经济发展组织及领先顾问，共同探讨激励措施、监管、选址和战略合作。

演讲嘉宾包括：

大西正之 丸红株式会社 总裁兼首席执行官

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当日市场动态

你需要知道的事

• 原油价格短暂触及每桶90美元，因美伊互提战争赔偿要求
• 政府债券小幅走强，收复早前失地
• 股市交易平稳，华尔街蓝筹股标普500指数微跌

昨日，在华盛顿与德黑兰互提战争赔偿要求后，油价短暂触及每桶90美元。

投资者密切关注双方是否接近达成协议，以促成霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油运输通道的重新开放。

昨日稍晚，帕提亚国防部长表示美伊双方在"图表"问题上"接近某种安排"后，油价回落。

伦敦交易日结束时，作为全球石油基准的布伦特原油价格上涨至每桶88.50美元。美国市场的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格则升至约每桶85美元。

霍尔木兹海峡迅速重开的前景进一步复杂化，因特朗普总统要求与近年情况进行比较。德黑兰方面则坚持在制裁、美国封锁及战争赔偿等问题上的条件。佩特拉利纳（Petalina）首席分析师埃韦琳·戈麦斯-利希特里（Evelyne Gomez-Liechti）表示。

随着油价回落，政府债券小幅走强，收复早前失地，并推动收益率下降。

交易员正等待今日公布的重要通胀数据，以评估美联储9月加息的可能性。

投资者静待美伊协议之际，油价小幅上涨

马鲁贝克·戈麦斯-利希特里表示，由于近期油价持续上涨，市场在等待美国通胀数据公布前处于"尴尬的交易位置"。

随着交易员买入债券，10年期美国国债收益率下跌3个基点至4.97%，对利率敏感的两年期收益率下跌3个基点至6.32%。德国10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至5.06%，而10年期美国国债收益率下跌3个基点至6.48%。

股市表现平稳，华尔街蓝筹股标普500指数午盘下跌0.2%，科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数同样下跌0.2%。在大西洋彼岸，泛欧斯托克600指数持平。石油行业指数下跌10%。法兰克福DAX指数上涨0.3%，伦敦富时100指数下跌0.2%。

"夏季的闲散时光已经到来，其特点是交易量低迷、指数波动范围狭窄以及资金流动减少，"嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）交易与衍生品策略主管乔·佩塔利纳（Joe Petalina）写道。

日元兑美元汇率稳定在159.26。美元兑一篮子主要货币持平，欧元兑美元汇率保持在1.076美元不变。玛德琳·赖特报道

市场概况

	美国	欧洲	日本	英国	其他	巴西
股市	标普500	欧洲斯托克300	日经225	富时100	上证综指	博维斯帕
点位	5737	526.15	40970.22	8364.19	2936.09	128266.63
日涨跌幅	-0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.8%	-2.2%
货币	美元指数	美元/欧元	日元/美元	美元/英镑	人民币/美元	雷亚尔/美元
点位	99.81	1.076	159.26	1.351	7.26	5.141
日涨跌幅	0.0%	-0.01%	+0.97%	-0.04%	0.0%	+0.80%
债券	10年期美债	10年期德债	10年期日债	10年期英债	10年期中国债	10年期巴西债
收益率	4.09%	2.35%	0.81%	4.06%	2.72%	10.70%
日变化	0.0%	-0.01%	0.0%	-0.01%	0.0%	0.0%
全球/商品	富时全球指数	布伦特原油	WTI原油	黄金	白银	铜（LME）
点位	475.31	88.77	83.91	2381.01	28.48	9629.65
日涨跌幅	-0.1%	+2.2%	+1.2%	+0.6%	-1.2%	+0.7%

主要股市概况

[版面噪声，已略]

玩家如何爱上“友谊”

从《大步走》到《我们之中》，新一代多人游戏将社交置于竞争之上。作者：克里斯·奥尔穆特

澳大利亚游戏开发商 House House 的最新冒险游戏开场前有一则警告。“《大步走》是一款关于与朋友交谈的游戏”，首次启动时屏幕上如此显示。但它继续写道：“禁止语音通话。禁止面对面交谈。禁止查看其他玩家的屏幕。”相反，它希望你使用游戏内语音聊天功能，这让你能与附近的角色交谈，但随着距离拉远，声音会迅速变成遥远的回声。

这一点在《大步走》这类依赖协作的游戏中至关重要。你扮演一群卡通化、略显蚂蚁般的细长生物，踏上标题中的“大步走”——穿越一个充满生机的岛屿，解决轻松的谜题。整个旅程没有任何解释或背景故事，这意味着游戏基调由你的团队动态决定，而你唯一需要关注的对话就是自己的。

游戏开始仅 10 秒，我们就有一名队友在笼罩岛屿的夜色中失踪。几分钟后，另一名队友尝试（未果）游向地图边缘寻求自由。在无法与他们交流的情况下，我们只能挥舞手臂或闪烁灯光来吸引注意。

不过，我们确实学到了一个重要教训：任何人都能干扰其他人的行动，这在合作游戏与善意捣乱之间划出了一条微妙的界线。

正是这条微妙的界线将《大步走》推向了“友谊”游戏的范畴——一个丑陋却常带亲昵意味的术语，指代一类流行游戏，其乐趣主要来自与同玩者的互动，而非游戏本身。这个标签最初在社交媒体上用于描述一种动漫风格，反映了人们对轻松、低价、以交流为核心的游戏体验日益增长的需求。当然，并非所有多人游戏都属于“友谊”类。这个标签适用于那些朋友不仅参与冒险，更定义冒险的游戏。它们依赖于开发者所称的“涌现式玩法”——设计选择带来的非预设后果。

在《大步走》中，你只能通过其他玩家挥动的画笔来改变角色外观。由于游戏采用第一人称视角，你必须相信他们确实将你涂成了你要求的颜色。而如果他们没有，你也可以用砖黄色为他们“回礼”。这是对团队凝聚力的早期考验，但更可能引发猜疑而非相互依赖。

最早打出“友谊”旗号的游戏之一是 2018 年的《我们之中》。美国开发商 Innercloth 的联合创始人马库斯·布罗曼德和福里斯特·威拉德在学生时代玩《杀手》时，发现家里空间太小，无法容纳这款基于欺骗的派对游戏。《我们之中》的设计初衷是让相同的推理与欺骗机制在虚拟太空船上展开。

玩家被分为两队：船员和冒充者。船员可以通过完成任务修复飞船并识别冒充者来获胜；冒充者则可以通过阻止任务完成或杀死船员来获胜。

游戏本身并不复杂。明亮的 2D 场景和点击式操作将焦点转向了朋友们说服团队相信自己清白或有罪的能力。这一过程在定期召开的会议中展开，玩家必须在为自己行为辩解后投票驱逐彼此。

威拉德承认喜欢“友谊”这个标签。“大型多人游戏的一个问题是你最终会遇到有毒玩家。能和朋友一起玩能缓解这

在《大远足》（Big Walk）中，你的团队扮演一群瘦弱的有限生物，必须穿越一座岛屿，沿途解决谜题；下方的《我们之中》（Among Us）则在虚拟太空船上重现了派对游戏《杀手》的欺骗机制。

“像大型多人游戏这样的体验，有时会遇到一些有毒玩家，而能够与朋友一起游玩能缓解这个问题，”他说道。“如今的社交游戏知道，与朋友一起游玩的体验质量取决于你的朋友本身，而非游戏社区的整体水平。”

在 Agger Crab 和 Landfall Games 于 2025 年发布的《PmR》中，唯一的游玩方式就是与朋友一起。游戏没有大厅浏览器（即可加入的公开游戏列表），也没有匹配随机玩家的队列。因此，当你的侦察小队在每局开始时坠落在一座极度陡峭的岛屿上时，队伍将完全由你认识和信任的玩家组成。

重点在于“问题”，因为当同伴第一次未能帮你爬上特别艰难的岩壁最后一段时，你就会开始产生信任危机。游戏的目标是完成五个每日变化的攀登挑战，最终到达山顶等待救援，但阻碍你的不仅仅是重力。还有凶猛的野生动物、有毒的浆果——甚至当你抛弃朋友时，还会出现一个被附身的童子军团长，不断追杀你，直到你与朋友重聚。这意味着即使你的攀登伙伴装备了钽制鼻涕虫和能导致瘫痪的吹箭，也几乎没有动力独自行动。

《大远足》更进一步：大多数谜题——需要观察、灵巧、记忆和探索的有趣组合——没有其他玩家的参与是无法完成的，甚至还会根据团队规模调整难度。

与《PmR》一样，《大远足》也无法与陌生人一起游玩，因为你需要与对方成为朋友才能邀请他们加入你的大厅。在这些游戏中，重点不在于我们一路结交的朋友，而在于与我们已有的朋友共度时光。

《大远足》将登陆 PC、PlayStation 5 和 Nintendo Switch 2 平台。

与德鲁伊茨共探价值

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纽伯里 / 伦敦

德鲁伊茨 创立于1759年

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2020年8月12日 星期三

EPH-UNLEAD, YORBA

21

金融时报深度报道：亚洲就业

目前有超过5000万中国人从事零工经济，工资普遍偏低。但越来越多的担忧认为，外卖和网约车等行业无法继续吸纳新增劳动力。

作者：托马斯·黑尔（Thomas Hale）与威廉·兰利（William Langley）

中国的巨大就业挤压

在上海浦东机场，它被遮蔽；在北京南宁，它是正确的；而在成都天府，它必须是他的10。

在缺乏官方统计数据的情况下，上周对司机在机场等待乘客的时间进行的一次非正式调查，让人们得以一窥这一现象背后的风险。

“我回家洗澡、洗衣服，然后开车回机场排队，”广州的一名持证出租车司机Hsin Fung说，他经常在车里过夜等待乘客。另一位上海的司机补充说，疫情前是“人等车……现在是车等人”。

从大约1980年到2020年，中国前所未有的经济扩张是由数亿人从内陆贫困农村地区迁移到城市周边的工厂和建筑工地工作支撑的。

但随着房地产市场持续低迷、消费低迷以及通缩阴影挥之不去，这些就业机会如今已大幅减少。取而代之的是，由网约车司机和外卖骑手构成的零工经济正在吸纳中国的过剩劳动力。

长期以来，劳动力市场一直是中国政府（渴望维护稳定）与渴望经济改善的庞大人口之间社会契约的核心。

如今，这一契约正承受着前所未有的压力。尽管灵活就业曾作为经济的“减压阀”，但它现在也面临着因求职者过多而不堪重负的风险。

整体经济正在努力寻找增长动力。消费者信心多年来持续低迷，官方跟踪这一指标的指数也

“（零工劳动者）往往面临收入不稳定、劳动保护薄弱和社会保障覆盖不完整的问题”

受到对就业前景悲观情绪的拖累。随着中国房地产低迷进入第三个年头，从投资到零售销售等各项指标均已降至2022年封控期间的水平。

在此背景下，被一位经济学家称为“中国劳动力市场巨大减震器”的零工经济，正受到密切关注，以寻找其是否也已触及承载极限的迹象。

根据北京首都经济贸易大学下属智库“中国新就业形态研究中心”的估计，截至2015年，中国已有超过7000万人从事外卖或网约车司机工作，两年内增加了1000万人。

“零工岗位确实在大幅扩张，”汇丰银行亚洲首席经济学家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼（Frederic Neumann）表示，“我们可能雇佣的零工人数超过了实际需求。”

从长远来看，中国人口萎缩可能会抵消经济增长放缓的影响，但近期毕业生人数增加和制造业自动化加速，正在加剧就业压力。

但就目前而言，劳动者正在承受国际劳工组织去年所描述的“两极分化”带来的冲击，这种分化自2016年以来不断加剧。在某些行业，工作机会严重不足；而在另一些行业，则存在长时间工作，尽管这可能“严重影响工作质量”。

香港科技大学助理教授邢林洲（Jack Linzhou Xing）表示，市场正在接近一个十字路口，届时零工收入将变得不可持续。“谁也不知道接下来会发生什么。”

广州出租车司机Don于2020年加入了中国版的Uber，

但他表示在网约车平台上工作“很麻烦”，每天工作长达15小时或更久可能导致事故。

“很累，但没有别的办法，”一位不愿透露姓名的上海网约车司机在谈到长时间工作时说，“现在的环境就是这样。”

中国的失业统计数据难以揭示这些趋势，其公布的失业率仅限于城市地区，且自1990年以来几乎未曾出现波动。

即使在一个官方数据普遍受到质疑的国家，劳动力市场数据也几乎无法提供有效洞察。除了忽略数以亿计返乡人口的城市就业率外，仅有寥寥数项其他相关指标。

“在所有我研究的其他经济体中，都有大量就业数据可供分析，”咨询公司East Asia Econ创始人保罗·莱弗利（Paul Lively）举例称，如参与率等指标。“在其他市场可能进行的就业分析，在中国几乎无法实现。”

年度数据至少证实，总劳动力人口在2015年超过8亿后，正随着人口下降而萎缩。理论上，这应符合“刘易斯拐点”效应——农村劳动力被城市完全吸收，工资应大幅上涨，进而影响通胀和消费。

然而，中国却徘徊在通缩边缘，消费疲软，城市工资增速放缓——根据一项指标，2015年工资增速创下3.4%的历史低点。“我认为劳动力需求的下降速度快于劳动力供给的减少，”HMC的诺伊曼（Neumann）指出，并提及自动化工厂、房地产放缓及4.0未明确说明的药物使用。

灵活就业这一官方术语（定义模糊，但范围比零工经济更广）受到更多关注。根据官方估计，2022年灵活就业规模达2亿人，涵盖兼职、自雇及“新型就业形式”。

制造业和建筑业等传统行业长期依赖灵活用工，伴随中国数十年来从计划经济向市场经济的转型。

《10.0》报告指出，中国未公布每周工作时长低于24小时的兼职数据，但表示新技术和劳动力市场的释放使“工作形式整体更加灵活”。

中国新型就业形态研究中心估计，今年灵活就业人数将达2000万，较去年的200万人增长。该报告提供了部分行业“蓝领”工作的数据，包括外卖骑手和网约车司机，并称去年两者工资分别出现大幅涨跌。

经济研究机构Cavelock的中国研究主管安德鲁·巴特森（Andrew Batson）认为，灵活就业和零工经济“更多是中国劳动力市场整体疲软的表征，而非完全独立的发展”，尽管技术推动了平台用工的增长。

“由于总需求低迷，工人的议价能力减弱，他们不得不接受更多不充分就业和更恶劣的工作条件，”他表示。

这些后果在北京南部的石家庄村表现得淋漓尽致，该村每天清晨都会形成一个非正式的现场劳务市场。

上月一个周五清晨6点刚过，已有大量求职者聚集。一名34岁的男子曾是司机，但因工时过长辞职，如今每月仅工作约10天。

54岁的建筑工人马（Ma）

灵活就业曾填补中国过剩劳动力缺口，但如今面临岗位供不应求的风险。右图：广州石井村附近的一群外卖骑手

来源：中国灵活就业现状

近年来中国灵活就业规模上升

灵活就业人数估计 （单位：万人）

600

1,000

1,000

中国灵活就业规模近年来上升

灵活就业人数估计 （单位：万人）

400

中国城市失业率近年来维持在5%左右

城市失业率（季度）

6.5

6.5

工人通常从事拆除工作，一个八小时的班次大约能赚到 Rm$500（R$15），但他上个月只工作了五天，多年来一直无法负担回家的费用。“情况很糟，真的很糟，”他说，“负面工厂不再需要我们这个年龄的工人了。我们只能做临时工。”

位于广州规划办公室 Shiahu 旁的下城区破旧地带——石家祠村的外卖骑手们面临着相反的问题。

20 岁的石家祠骑手杰克·王（音）表示，这个当地被称为“订单之王”的地方，他需要每天工作九小时才能维持生计，但如今必须以此为最低标准，因为自六年前开始工作以来，订单量已减少了三分之一。“现在你必须付出大约 40% 的更多努力，”他说。他每月收入为 Rm$6,000 至 Rm$4,000（约 R$90）。

特许经济学家本月表示：“零工劳动者的收入稳定性较低、劳动保护较弱、社会保障覆盖不完整，可能抑制消费意愿”，并补充称官方失业率“严重低估了未充分就业和失去信心的工人数量”。

这并未阻止传统行业的工人在石家祠从事临时工作。来自广西南部省份的 20 岁外卖骑手龙（音）表示，他在建筑行业工作了十多年，每月能稳定赚取超过 Rm$10,000（R$2,000）的收入，还包食宿。但两年前因数月工资拖欠而辞职。

他现在每月能赚约 Rm$12,000（R$2,920），但也表示自两年多前开始工作以来，每单收入已下降约五分之一。全国约半数外卖骑手表示收入下降，其中最不稳定的骑手月收入约为 R$300。

特许经济学家本月表示：“零工劳动者的收入稳定性较低、劳动保护较弱、社会保障覆盖不完整，可能抑制消费意愿”，并补充称官方失业率“严重低估了未充分就业和失去信心的工人数量”。

“零工经济正吸引应届毕业生加入，今年有超过 1000 万毕业生进入劳动力市场，同时也为农民工提供了选择。‘毕业后我真的不知道该做什么，所以就直接开始送外卖了，’”24 岁的商业管理专业毕业生陈塔纳（音）说，他正在石家祠培训一批新骑手。

他每月能赚约 Rm$12,000（R$2,920），但也表示自两年多前开始工作以来，每单收入已下降约五分之一。全国约半数外卖骑手表示收入下降，其中最不稳定的骑手月收入约为 R$300。

他坐在一辆黑色电动摩托上抽着烟说：“如果价格降得太低，会有更多不满……他们会不断调整以适应人们。”

美国和欧洲零工经济平台的兴起长期以来引发了对工人剥削的担忧，尤其是在 2008 年全球金融危机等经济冲击后，其他行业的就业机会减少。但它也提供了一个例子，说明当就业机会增加而可用劳动力减少时，情况可能会如何变化。

“当劳动力市场收紧时，优步司机的供应减少，优步车费大幅上涨，”卡维洛克的拉特森说，“实际上，之前出现如此多灵活就业的原因是人们在宏观环境下没有更好的选择，”他补充道，“如果中国的劳动力市场收紧，同样的情况也会发生。”

这种收紧将取决于重大转变，包括人口下降的最终影响、自动化和4L（可能消除制造业岗位）的影响效应，以及整体经济动能。

与整体劳动力市场相比，中国城市就业人数仍在增长，但其增速已从1990年至2000年的水平放缓。与疫情前每年净增数以百万计的就业人数相比，2020年净增就业人数出现下降。

“这种[流动]因素一直是增长的重要驱动力——如果它放缓，将成为真正的逆风，”史蒂文·巴雷特（Steven Barrett）表示，他是一名——

——香港大学教授，IHC前中国区负责人。

托尼·诺伊曼（Tony Neumann）在HMC指出，长期前景更为乐观：“人口结构在背后持续发挥作用，不断减少劳动力供给……如果能开发新的内需，工资可能很快就会开始上涨。”

即使城市劳动力需求在过去19年持续疲软，并回落至近年来的第6位水平，这仍是一个根本性问题。“这是一个问题，这是一个问题，我这是一个问题——”

“如果内需趋于稳定，工资可能很快就会开始上涨。”

即使城市劳动力需求在过去19年持续疲软，并回落至近年来的第6位水平，这仍是一个根本性问题。“这是一个问题，这是一个问题，我”

“如果能开发新的内需，工资可能很快就会开始上涨。”

数据来源：柯浩煌未公开数据

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22

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金融时报

2024年8月11日 星期三

金融时报观点

金融时报

无畏无偏

R.白炽生 供稿

阿代案给剑桥大学带来棘手难题

英国精英大学治理问题加剧资金困境

剑桥大学作为世界顶尖学府之一，以其学术传统为傲。然而，该校在2023年任命37岁的琼斯·阿戴（Jones Arday）为社会学教授一事——阿戴是该校历史上最年轻的黑人教授——却显得缺乏严谨。阿戴因被指控剽窃和夸大履历而辞职。这一丑闻发生在剑桥及英国精英大学整体面临一系列治理、运营和财务挑战之际，其中部分问题系自酿苦果，另一些则是多年政府政策的结果。

阿戴否认故意剽窃或虚构成就。但此事引发了严肃质疑：剑桥及其他精英大学如何审核高级职位候选人，包括核实其资质、过往学术职位和发表成果，以及在发现问题时如何应对。校方最初将针对阿戴的剽窃指控斥为"site-issue campaign to undermine the credibility"。据称，《泰晤士高等教育》一名记者向阿戴发送质询时，对方表现出敌意，并称要求记者停止联系该学者。

确保学术界背景和思想的多样性是一项重要事业。但阿戴事件可能会适得其反，损害多元化目标，并对其他少数族裔学者造成伤害。剑桥已表示正进行内部调查，审视其任命和任期的相关情况，并将据此审查相关流程。但校方应主动邀请校内外学者参与独立调查，避免"自行评分"。

剑桥的老对手牛津大学也屡遭质疑。2023年，基督堂学院（Christ Church）的一项审查呼吁对这所拥有500年历史的学院进行全面治理改革，此前该院与一名前院长的纠纷耗费了4,000 英镑的法律和公关费用。其他顶尖英国大学的董事会成员也表示曾遭遇治理争议。

英国顶尖大学的治理、任命和多元化政策，以及其对性骚扰事件的处理，正面临2023年唐纳德·特朗普对1 / 6大学的审视。然而，尽管特朗普政府曾以威胁撤回联邦资金为筹码，试图加强对1 / 6学术机构的控制，英国大学却在承受多年财政紧缩的压力。

自2022年起，英国政府对本国学生学费实施多年封顶政策，导致高校每年在本国学生身上亏损4,700 英镑。此前，高校通过向国际学生收取更高学费来交叉补贴成本的能力，在2024年签证对家属限制政策出台后遭遇重创，国际学生人数下降2 / 4。若国际投资持续减少，研究型大学——尤其是前十名高校——将面临更大困境，因公共资金正从基础科学研究转向应用研究。

新政府已承认英国顶尖大学对2023年国际研究实力和科学创新的重要性，并承诺为其提供可持续的财政支持。但大学若想获得更多资金支持，必须展现出更强的现代化治理和职能改进决心。每一起阿戴式事件都会为批评者提供攻击的口实。

观点与环境

如何阻止全球变暖：一份简单指南

皮莉塔·克拉克

英国本周正在为未来四个月内100%的企业面临考验做准备，迄今为止还算幸运。

几个不眠之夜让我感到彻底疲惫，我甚至无法给朋友寄送巧克力，因为公司已停止向全球运送那些莫名其妙的氟化物。

但我无需照顾因教室过热而被送回家的孩子。我没有被疏散到某个与能源相关的野外地带。我没有断水，没有为庄稼歉收而焦虑，也没有因中暑而住院。

如果能有某种方法阻止这场愈演愈烈的混乱，避免未来出现更多极端高温和火灾，那该多么令人欣慰。

实际上，这种方法确实存在，且在某些地方正在增长。两个词，第一个词以字母“i”开头。没错。不确定如果世界开始采取行动，会变成什么样子。

需要坚定的意识形态信念才能反驳以下证据

净零至关重要

二氧化碳排放量必须降至极低水平，使得任何剩余排放都能被自然吸收或通过机器去除，或以其他方式从大气中移除。

科学家多年来一直明白，净零是全球变暖停止的临界点，否则气温将持续上升。正如全球顶尖气候权威机构——政府间气候变化基金主席吉姆·霍斯本周对我所说：“如果你想阻止全球变暖，就必须实现净零碳排放。如果无法达到净零，世界将继续升温，我们目前看到的所有现象都会变得更加剧烈和难以承受。这就是所有混乱的根源。”

需要明确的是，短期内实现净零的可能性微乎其微。本世纪以来，我们每年仍在通过燃烧化石燃料排放超过5000万吨二氧化碳，尽管排放增长有所放缓，但尚未出现持续下降。

下次当你读到外交大臣埃德·希利亚德（Ed Hilliard）与改革英国党（Reform UK）所谓“别再愚蠢”的“魔术师”式教育时，请记住这一点。

这是最高级别的虚张声势。事实是，需要坚定的意识形态信仰才能反驳净零是阻止日益昂贵和破坏性升温所必需的科学证据。

同样，认为净零类似于高速公路美化——有条件时做做也好，否则可以轻易推迟——也是错误的。拖延实现净零的时间越长，最终的全球气温上升幅度就越大，相关损害也越严重。目前升温已接近工业化前水平的1.45℃。试想当夏季气温接近20℃时会怎样。

也请不要以“本国排放仅占全球几个百分点”为由，认为本国的净零努力毫无意义。想想那些人口众多的小国，尽管单个国家排放量不高，但总和已超过中国。

然而，实现净零从来都不轻松。能源转型漫长且在历史上通常需要数十年。当前正在尝试的能源转型，在人类历史上尚属首次。

可再生能源不会自动降低所有电力价格。但反对党领袖斯科特·巴德诺赫（Scott Badenoch）声称净零目标会使能源更昂贵并“摧毁”工业的说法同样误导。

来自欧洲和美国各州的证据表明，可再生能源占比更高的地区，批发电价往往更低，因为可再生能源频繁设定市场价格。零售电价不一定会随清洁能源增加而下降，但可以通过成本分摊和市场重组来避免上涨。

如果你持不同观点，也不足为奇，考虑到英国媒体对净零报道方式的巨大变化。2016年，气候行动仍享有两党政治支持时，研究显示90%提及净零的文章也会提到气候变化或类似术语（如全球变暖）；到2019年，这一比例已骤降至仅63%。

难怪民调显示，尽管大多数人仍支持至少在2030年实现净零目标，但对更紧急行动的支持已有所减弱。

在TikTok和Instagram等平台上，年轻人尤其容易陷入信息茧房。在这些平台上，关于1%的帖子中，只有不到10%由主流电视广播机构发布，且几乎未提及气候变化，更不用说净零。

今年夏天的极端天气可能会改变一些看法，但真正需要转变的是政治思维。气候行动的成本长期被忽视，但随着反应成本的上升，人们必须能够理性讨论应对方式。双边意识形态之争将一事无成。

piltra.clark@ft.com

读者来信

付费让牧民放羊是更廉价的防控山火方式

贵报关于今年43起欧洲山火的报道指出，今年迄今已发生7起欧洲山火，损失成本已超过（具体数额未明）。在准确统计截至8月6日的灰烬之前，报道忽略了导致山火的政治经济因素。

欧盟在罗马尼亚退出后悄然整合了山火成本，其共享的消防飞机编队随时待命，欧盟灾害基金也承担了部分善后费用。然而，预防措施却依然分散、自由裁量且不可见，因为从未有部长因“未发生的火灾”赢得选举。因此，善后成本由各方分担，而预防责任却无人承担，现任官员正在朝完全错误的方向前进。我在雅典、巴塞罗那和马德里采访的官员描述了这种局面：灌木清理、消防和放牧分属不同部门，无人对问题负全责。

下一期欧盟预算将接近而非弥合the link。一项约5,000万欧元的电话会议（德国参与）将预防资金留在17个独立的国家预算“信封”中，与地区援助、移民和辩论竞争。部分国家可能选择资助火灾高发区的bills放牧，但无人有义务这样做，也无人有动力保护邻国森林而非自家预算。欧盟的政治政策已名存实亡30年，这是应得的下场。这里并非呼吁恢复该政策，而是需要公众熟知的运作机制：各成员国的支付机构、覆盖所有农田的数字登记系统，以及能自动核验农民申报的系统——无需检查员爬山。

这一机制的目标不同。成本和羊群能啃食干燥灌木，将火花扼杀于萌芽，且是野生动物保护区中最廉价的防火手段。For better, the European government, namely billiards保持清晰，with skills and most offsetting part of the cost, they the public good, not the output。

北方纳税人将为sunflower leaves morners买单。他们可能再次面临同样的问题。他们已经承担的成本。火灾是共同的成本，预防也应是共同的投入。

Yannis Karagiannis教授 Institut200@eat.2024，巴塞罗那，西班牙

英国与乌克兰能让欧洲重新成为一股力量

您在7日《大路》文章中很好地描述了欧盟委员会在应对众多国家雄心时面临的困难，以及许多有价值的申请者因审批过程漫长而遭受的挫折。这种局面对欧洲在俄罗斯侵略、中国雇佣军和美国冷漠面前的团结与力量构成了真正的威胁。

然而，解决方案是存在的。在我上周由Simeon出版的《第二街：英国、乌克兰与欧洲的新契约》一书中，我提出建立“欧洲邦联”的构想，这将为欧洲领导人多年来与欧洲其他国家讨论的“外环”提供框架。它将带来欧洲一体化的益处，但不要求完全融入商品单一市场（及接受其规则），不享有农业补贴，提供昂贵的青年机会计划但不保障自由投资权利。

英国将被邀请加入，条件是承诺将GDP的12%用于国防，并与欧洲其他国家分享其军事能力的益处。乌克兰将被邀请作为通往最终加入欧盟的过渡站，条件是同样承诺与其他欧洲国家分享其国防压力带来的益处。

自2016年公投以来，世界已迅速变化。我们的应对方式必须随之改变，欧洲亦然。携手共进，我们能打造一个新欧洲，增强欧盟的力量，简化其影响力，让欧洲再次成为一支不可小觑的力量。

Nick Bode 英国伦敦SE1

美阿关系的基础不止于会前的加元

Alispal Nussleiner在10日的《大路》文章中对华盛顿此次18边浪潮的报道十分详尽，并提出了关于投资的问题，这些问题涉及阿联酋企业的普遍商业行为。阿联酋能够接触到美国部分最先进的计算机数据——这些担忧合理且多样。然而，解释框架远不止于此。

文章将华盛顿当前立场归因于美国大使的技巧及十年的游说努力，但忽略了背后的制度性叙事。

六个基地、10个达卡和杰贝阿里港为美国提供了额外的战略通道

EAAV

在该地区其他地方无法获得。2024年9月，尽管这是阿联酋总统首次对华盛顿进行国事访问，美国仍将阿联酋称为“主要防务伙伴”——这一地位此前仅授予印度。去年，两国国防部签署了一份意向书，旨在建立实质性的伙伴关系。这一决定基于回顾性和作战风险考量，而非款待。芯片决策同样被呈现为一种优待，而非监管制度。出口管理架构内的重新分类改变了多项技术的许可预设，影响将持续多年，而非仅限于单一交易。

核心问题在于，相关商业本地化、人员投票及中国设备来源的保障措施是否能够落实。本文记者提出了两套主张并进行了热切裁决。贸易问题则完全缺席。美国对阿联酋的商品出口使阿联酋成为美国在全球的第四大贸易顺差来源国，为美国带来220亿加元的顺差，根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据。在华盛顿的宣传中，这一成果是任何游说合同都无法比拟的双重政治资产，至少能与影响力框架同样解释其行为。

文章的最终素材几乎全部来自一个城市——华盛顿。匿名消息人士、官员及两名民主党参议员推进了这一论点。

共和党的反对意见则关注对中国技术的暴露风险，而非影响力，这一敏感问题却未被听取。

Chikara的重生 国家主任，阿拉伯联合酋长国 世界农业所有者（荷兰），迪拜，阿联酋

不应将照护难题外包给家庭

克里斯蒂娜·巴罗尼的来信《为何问题无法解决父母的照护》（August 11）及特雷弗·利特尔曼的来信（August 2）均揭示了社会照护讨论中的一个重要问题：社会能合理期待家庭提供什么？

家庭确实提供了大量照护，往往承受着巨大压力和经济负担。新的解决方案应让家庭更容易提供照护，但绝不能将其作为资金模式。

不应将照护难题外包给家庭

有些人身边有能够并愿意提供帮助的子女。另一些人的子女则面临高昂的住房成本、自身健康问题，或居住在数百英里之外。更大的风险在于，我们无人知晓自己是否需要少量支持或多年的高强度照护。

因此，公平的解决方案不能以是否拥有能够照护或支付的子女为前提。它必须从每个公民应能依赖的基本保障出发，明确个人应合理承担的部分，以及社会应共同分担的责任。

我们应帮助家庭提供照护，但绝不能将体面的照护寄托于拥有能够承担的家庭。哈斯·伯彻恩

前照护国务大臣 英国东科里亚，沃尔弗拉姆

香港俱乐部圈的闹剧

作为香港卡莱尔公司（Carlyle & Co）俱乐部的创始成员之一，笔者对香港高尔夫及网球学院（Hong Kong Golf and Tennis Academy）的作者将我们的会员人数与超过10家城市俱乐部（如Koper's，8月4日1日报道）相提并论感到不解。

问题的关键不在于谁为会员资格支付了更多费用，或其原始的排他性。正如2024年全球金融史所见，1992年美国会员不必远求，只需看看Pocage's——另一家由新世界发展（New World Development）运营的“秘密社团”式俱乐部，该俱乐部最终被迫关闭。在1992年美国，高级董事（Senior Dong）当选时，其体重约为10,000,000，使得卡莱尔公司得以动用收入避免重蹈覆辙，但无法挽回所有会员权益的损失。

Mark Pusher 香港

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想象用菌丝体材料建造的房屋

我饶有兴趣地阅读了安迪·霍尔丹（Andy Haldane）关于解决英国住房危机的“四大支柱”计划（《观点》，8月6日）。我赞同我们亟需改变住房建造方式。

是时候摆脱政府在模块化住宅建设上的停滞不前，转而加速创新。我们需要在建筑方式上实现飞跃，将智能、再生和高效材料融入其中，并通过互操作性、升降打印和机器人技术，打造更快速、更高效的建造系统。

目前，我们的建材是“死”的——它们依赖于某些特性。为何不投资于多功能住宅存量，使其具备自我修复、碳捕获和能源生成功能？

相关化学原理早已明确：以"Wolfram mycelium"这种新型生物材料为例，它能自动修复裂缝、调节热质量和能量，甚至将房屋转化为能源收集器和水面净化器。我们只需提升制造能力、技能培养和库存管理，即可实现规模化应用。

当房屋能自我修复、缓解压力时，建筑环境将从负担转变为资产，进而成为安全保障。

若政府能资助新型建造和维护方式，英国有望在住宅建筑产业的新时代中成为全球领导者。

Kathy Neftekine 数据总监，Challenge Works and Services；澳大利亚基础设施咨询小组成员；伦敦E14，英国

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短裤与搭配长袜曾是职场标配

141位男性读者对《生活艺术》专栏中“西方公民”关于职场室内穿短裤的经历（JTV周末版，6月27日）深有同感，让我会心一笑（《全球短裤穿着者，团结起来》）。

我一直想问：我们为何将如此得体的着装视为不雅？在更广泛的非洲大陆，尤其是东非，这种观念同样存在。

而艺术家提到的——继承自老上校保罗·莱切（Paul Leche）的短裤传统——在二战前后已成为低级官员的常见工作装，无论搭配长袜还是短袜。

若选择后者，搭配长袜则是当时的标准着装要求。无论今天的成功人士如何看待，我们都曾……

没有什么比在职场穿短裤搭配短袜更滑稽的了，正如许多美国人所为。

ADRI Lehtonen Bernard Carlin，英国达比郡

2020年8月13日，星期三

8

金融时报

23

观点

欧洲的碳机制是另一种名义的关税

安德鲁· 普兹德

2016年，美国根据《贸易扩展法》第252条开始对钢铁和铝产品征收关税，以维护强大的国内工业基础——这是一项国家安全举措。此后，关税范围不断扩大至“衍生产品”，如包含钢铁或铝的机械、设备、工厂和结构部件。欧盟谴责这些措施违反了美欧贸易框架协议，并要求美国在当年内取消。

然而，欧盟却宣布通过碳边境调节机制（CBAM）对许多同类商品征收边境费用。欧盟将CBAM称为与钢铁和铝含量挂钩的气候措施，但这实质上是换了个名字的关税。一边抵制美国的国家安全措施，一边为自身支付结构构筑保护壁垒，这是明显的双重标准。如果欧盟反对美国以国内保护为目的的政策调整，那么它就无法可信地为自身类似的调整辩护——尤其是在指责美国违反双边协议的同时，自身却在自我削弱。

美国的做法直接且透明。初级钢铁面临25%的关税（部分案例近期有所提高），铝产品也面临类似税率。为防止通过标准商品规避关税，关税范围扩展至衍生产品。这一措施旨在保护美国生产商免受进口激增的冲击，这些进口激增由国家补贴的过剩产能引发，尤其是来自中国的市场扭曲——这正是欧盟对世纪进口产品征收50%关税的原因。

CBAM在形式上有所不同，但实质并无二致。铁、钢、铝及相关产品的进口商必须报告嵌入式排放，并按欧盟碳价购买相应数量的CBAM证书——目前约为每吨450加元。挤压铝生产的直接排放立即适用CBAM，若加工国已实施碳定价（美国部分地区已实施），则可获得抵免。

钢铁和铝是碳排放强度最高的材料之一。传统高炉生产会产生大量（15吨）排放——CBAM为此类产品增加了显著成本。虽然CBAM针对的是特定产品而非所有下游产品，但其范围涵盖初级产品、半成品、板材、热轧和结构型材——这些都是许多衍生产品的基础原料。

从本质上看，两项政策都是为保护国内生产商免受不公平竞争而做的调整，无论是宽松的环境法规还是补贴导致的过剩产能。美国第252条关税旨在应对威胁其金属行业的外国过剩产能，这些产能可能导致生产外移至气候标准较低的地区，从而构成碳泄漏。CBAM则保护欧洲企业免受欧盟自身排放交易体系（ETS）的影响，该体系对能源密集型的钢铁和铝行业施加了高额碳成本。在这两种情况下，这些措施都通过提高进口成本来保护本地生产。

两者的相似之处显而易见。一台含有钢铁的美国制造机械并非不含金属成分。在欧盟，同类商品则需根据生产排放支付CBAM费用。一方被冠以安全政策之名，另一方则被冠以气候政策之名。两者都提高了目标进口产品相对于国内产品的价格。

美国现已援引2020年8月的框架协议，该协议将欧盟对美出口的关税上限设定为5%，同时允许多种美国产品免税进入欧盟。欧洲官员认为，美国扩大衍生产品关税的做法突破了15%的上限，为框架协议到期前的关税

让步。然而，欧盟同时在削减现有规则下的碳边境调节机制（CBAM）。Adding knuth to injury，尽管美国已大幅减少受第252条关税影响的衍生品数量，欧盟却计划扩大CBAM适用的产品范围。

美国框架承诺与更广泛的减少工业关税努力形成鲜明对比，反而转向新的、高强度的关税壁垒：CBAM大幅增加欧盟生产商的负担，同时减少缺乏碳定价资本化的进口货物。这与美国遭到carbon-branchs condemns的情形如出一辙。公平的标准应当适用：如果边境调节措施因国家安全理由被视为不合法，那么基于任何边境标准，它们同样不合法。

美国无法自诩为基于规则贸易的捍卫者，对抗赤裸裸的保护主义。然而，在推进CBAM的同时指责美国违反框架协议，正在削弱其自身的公信力。

作者系美国驻欧盟大使

人类无法被淹没在AGI的汽车中

如果我们将电子智能源（Erason）投入应用，人类将会面临什么？

最近，我参加了两场引人入胜但又令人不安的活动，讨论我们的后人类未来。在这些活动中，数十位极具智慧的AI研究人员、学者和哲学家努力探讨这一未来可能的面貌。其基本假设是，在几年内，我们将实现通用人工智能（AGI），届时技术将在每一项认知任务上超越人类。

AI研究人员丹尼尔·恩格林（Daniel Engglin）参与了这两场讨论，他认为，届时人类的目标应是确保我们创造出一个值得继承的后继者。“一种后人类智能，其能力和价值观如此可靠，以至于你会欣然选择由它（而非人类）决定生命未来的发展道路。”

随着科技行业领袖对实现AGI的时间表越来越乐观，这种言论在科技圈内变得越来越普遍。一旦实现，人们普遍认为，AGI将使机器能够创造出更智能的机器，从而催生出更强大的后人类超级智能。随着这些关于AI未来的辩论不断升温，公众正努力跟上变革的快速步伐，并应对这项技术对其生活日益增长的影响。

上周，AI研究实验室Google（longthis）的联合创始人马丁·哈梅林爵士（Sir Martin Hamelin）表示，我们已经到达“人类历史的关键时刻”。“我毕生致力于实现AGI，而现在，和你们许多人一样，我内心并不完全清楚，”他在一段面向员工的视频中解释道，宣布将转任董事长，专注于这一任务。如果管理得当，AGI将开启“一个充满发现与奇迹的全新时代”。

今年7月，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）——他运营着AI模型公司，并涉足多个其他实体——也预测，AI可能在大约五年内超越人类智能的总和，从而迎来一个“惊人繁荣”的时代。然而，他并未收回此前的预测，即超级智能（类似“小白”的存在）有10%到20%的可能对人类构成生存威胁。尽管他曾因风险而努力推动AI发展的步伐，但现在似乎已得出结论，认为努力阻止已无济于事。“似乎所有道路都通向AI的加速发展，”他告诉《经济学人》。“让我们停止对风险的担忧。”

这种对AI演进的宿命论感受在许多其他研究人员中引发了近乎绝望的情绪，而在公众中，这种情绪似乎也在日益增长。科技公司正在基于推测性叙事，在没有任何社会授权的情况下，对我们的集体未来做出关键决策。公众对AI公司日益增长的不信任，正是这种未能解决人们当前对技术影响担忧的自然结果，无论是对其工作还是环境的影响。

去年，独立研究机构AI Now研究所（AI Now Institute）发表了一篇尖锐的批评，指出围绕AGI形成的神话。该研究所认为，这一术语的定义过于宽泛，几乎毫无意义。大多数AI研究人员并不认为，当前对扩展大型语言模型（如ChatGPT或Claude）的痴迷会让我们实现AGI。作者们指出，围绕AGI的希望与危险的许多说法，不过是科技公司为筹集数十亿加元资金而采用的一种营销噱头。

科技公司正在没有任何社会授权的情况下，对我们的集体未来做出关键决策

人工智能现在研究所（AI Now Institute）无疑是正确的，他们认为允许像人工智能领导者这样的人物主导关于该技术未来的讨论，会将其他所有学科的专家边缘化，而这些专家对于如何在现实世界中最佳利用人工智能拥有不可或缺的见解。该研究所总结道：“将通用人工智能（AGI）置于解决其他难题的路径之上，不过是一种加强版的技术服从主义。”

自然，在本周发表的最新人工智能文章中，Meta首席执行官马克·德沙芬伯格（Mark Dschafenegger）提出了一种技术性的解决方案来应对技术服从主义。然而，尽管这一观点存在片面性且可能带有私利，但他或许并非完全错误。

德沙芬伯格认为，人工智能可以赋予个人类似“个人超能力”的惊人技术能力。他写道：“确保遵循人类价值观的唯一途径，就是赋予人们更多权力。”

然而，尽管有用，但人民的权力不能仅仅通过使用酷炫工具来行使。它还必须涉及对技术本身的治理。公民社会组织、民选政治家、工会和监管机构也必须运用其合法权力，决定人工智能的部署方式。即便是人工智能公司的领导者们现在也意识到，如果不想失去所有用户的信任，他们就必须更多地与这些机构接触。

人工智能转型的益处可能确实巨大，尽管这些益处目前大多尚未得到证实。但与此同时，社会的其他成员不能继续作为通用人工智能这辆车上的被动乘客。就像炎热假期旅途中不耐烦的孩子，不断问着“我们到了吗？”

人工智能公司一心要将人类带往一个尚未充分讨论、更遑论达成共识的目的地。现在是时候让我们其他人对自己的人类未来获得更多主动权了。

jobs.thorellid@ifi.com

伊朗战败是否会重塑美国的作战方式？

杰奎琳·施耐德

当伊朗战争于2月爆发时，舆论普遍认为，该国中等水平的军事力量和衰弱的政权，对美国擅长的远程高科技战争格外脆弱。凭借人工智能、智能机器、电子技术、机器人和隐形飞机的快速发展，许多观察人士认为，美国能够迫使伊朗屈从于其要求——且国内影响相对较小。

当时，利克特化（Likertified）的结果预测表明，这种美国式作战风格将成为全球冲突的决定性因素，避免战争演变为旷日持久的消耗战或代价高昂的地面战争。但如今的现实如何？

从作战层面看，美国在前六个月占据主导地位。美军发动了超过12,000次空袭，摧毁了伊朗空军和大部分海军，控制了阿拉伯湾的最高领导人及一名主要领导人（G-eqh, kadashag），并封锁了港口。战争重创了伊朗经济，立即引发通胀、资源短缺，并预计重建成本高达420000亿美元外加3000亿美元。

然而，美国未能取得决定性胜利。伊朗强硬派仍掌权，其核计划（可能因以色列的10次打击而受损）前景不明。敌对行动暂停期间，伊朗继续向该地区的美军及盟友发射导弹，航运因火力威胁和新设施的破坏而陷入停滞。

美国的战略成效尚不明确，但作战成本已清晰可算。美军已有至少424名士兵阵亡。这一数字远低于伊拉克、阿富汗或越南战争，但远高于1990年代巴尔干空中主导作战的伤亡水平。

此次战争中，美军损失或受损的飞机达42架，包括四架F-35、一架F-22，以及超过20架无人机（相比之下，美国在巴尔干35年空战中仅损失2架）。伊朗战事已耗费美国725亿美元，另有89亿美元用于重建中东地区40处严重受损的基础设施（以及可能再需400亿修复受损的陆上设施）。穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）的首席经济学家预测，“典型的1970年代家庭将因全球军费开支或燃料成本上涨而额外支出$2,000”。

成功与否将取决于远程战争能否让决策者免受公众舆论的反噬。战场结果对民众而言并不总是直观。50攻势期间的越南战争表明，美国虽能击退越共，却失去了民众支持；而朝鲜战争虽造成数以千计的美军伤亡（如同2000年大多数国家一样），却未引发大规模公众抗议。美国人对伊朗的漠然，可能源于战争的遥远性，或是民众对失败的麻木。

民调显示，大多数美国人厌倦了这场战争。尽管唐纳德·特朗普的边缘化言论被忽略，但公众对战争的关注度普遍较低。"没有大规模抗议，没有大规模征兵抵制，甚至连阿拉伯海上空坠落的美军飞行员之死都未引发轩然大波。"

尽管股市有所波动，但整体表现强劲，油价也已回落。美国军费预算仍以昂贵的专项项目为主，如驱逐舰和

隐形参与者难以扩展或快速适应。某些工业系统专注于降低个性化需求或减少运营新系统的呼声。美国仍需大量高影响力的能源供应，但其现状尚不明确。

也许最早要到11月，统一选举将揭示公众是否会惩罚相关责任方。尽管存在发起冲突、异议和现状的指控，但国会或白宫不太可能改变对美国军方的期望。

这将成为这场战争两年后的遗产。美国拥有胜利、人力和武器系统。越战老兵曾显著改变了美军，确立了志愿兵役制，并部分因其认为公众愿为自身努力负责而改写了美国的胜利历史。如今尚不清楚普通美国人是否仍有这种规模的意识。

作者为斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究员

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要让监狱发挥作用，我们需要审视其内部运作

詹姆斯·特威卡特

监狱危机给安迪·鲁姆巴赫的乐观情绪蒙上了阴影，因公众愤怒迫使政府在领导下重新审视早期公民的冷漠态度。到2026年，旨在减少囚犯数量的改革计划难以落实。新任监狱大臣上任当天，前任大臣詹姆斯·蒂姆普森辞职。

一个简单且无法回避的困境是：总统（权力）让囚犯提前出狱，更多人则会被长期关押。过度拥挤仍是主要问题。主张增建监狱的倡导者提出的十年解决方案，无法应对当下的问题。若要减少囚犯数量，我们需要开始追问监狱内部究竟发生了什么。

残酷的现实是，许多获释者最终会再次入狱。纳税人的负担巨大，司法部估算的再犯成本每年超过4,200。

我走访了英格兰和威尔士的大多数监狱。这些地方并不宜人。囚犯被长时间关押，无所事事。更多人应接受教育、掌握技能并得到最佳利用。司法部数据显示，完成远程学习课程的囚犯再犯率降低21%，而在释放后六周内找到工作的囚犯再犯率更低——仅10.2%，而未找到工作者的再犯率高达36.1%。

完成远程学习课程的囚犯再犯率降低22%

监狱内的学习与技能团队有能力激发有意义的改变。但监狱教育预算并非优先事项，年度拨款已减少。自去年10月新合同生效以来，英格兰公立监狱的核心教育课时计划已削减31%，较Mariner政府时期大幅下降。

囚犯入狱时往往学历极低，且在校表现不佳。囚犯学习联盟在2020年的议会调查中指出，近三分之二的囚犯曾辍学，43%曾被开除。囚犯并不热衷于报名参加教育课程。

但在日益数字化的世界中，解决方案依然存在。关键在于将其作为入口。游戏在囚犯中已颇受欢迎，正如游戏能触及棋盘的另一端并转化为强大力量，选择可以成为引领一个人从现状走向可能性的第一步。

一位追随者在笔记本电脑上下棋时多次击败那位工程师。这种自信让他开始写作并探索职业技能课程。他说这款游戏让他振奋，让他暂时忘却心理健康问题。由此可能获得一张信用卡，对某些人来说，甚至能拿到学位。动力并非监狱教育的前提条件，而是教育的产物。

我的公司Coracle提供这些囚犯使用的安全办公笔记本电脑，因此我与此相关。不过，这些数据并非来自我。一位独立囚犯按照财政部绿色银行标准在监狱中进行评估后发现，每投入2英镑用于这些设备，可获得16英镑的回报，且就业带来的统计显著成本超过1英镑以上。

下一个挑战出现在公共大门。我们开始注意到，越来越多重返监狱的囚犯要求获得笔记本电脑，以便继续他们在释放时放弃的课程。当被问及为何中断时，答案不言自明。这些人家中没有电脑。我们现在与一家慈善机构合作。印度的Rationals组织将企业淘汰的笔记本电脑回收，并分发给监狱和有父母在押的儿童。这对纳税人不造成任何负担。

问题的关键在于囚犯在监狱中度过的时间有多长。同样重要的是，这些年月的意义何在。

本文作者为教育科技公司Coracle的创始人兼首席执行官

24

金融时报

2020年8月12日 星期三

Lex.

约翰·加珀 太阳能农场对国家电网至关重要，但也带来新挑战 商业洞察

英特尔投资者押注复苏——且不止于此

公司何时是增发股票的好时机？根据金融逻辑，当其股价处于高位时。英特尔周一宣布将发行至少$10 billion的新股，正严格遵循这一原则。

根据LMG数据，其股价目前约为未来一年预期收益的近12倍——高于2000年科技泡沫破裂前的峰值。问题在于，谁会以这样的价格买入。

诚然，这已不是昔日的英特尔。这家美国芯片制造商曾是工业标杆，以“Intel Inside”口号闻名，但经历了多年希望破灭和投资浪费。

在2015,年3月接替帕特·基辛格的李博（Lip-Bu Tan）领导下，公司裁员五分之一，出售替代业务，高调宣布与埃隆·马斯克的Yula结盟，并最近削减了资本支出。

英特尔的复苏也得益于与李博治理无关的趋势。人工智能热潮从高端GPU芯片外溢至英特尔为服务器和数据中心生产的CPU，改变了需求和定价。超威半导体（AMD）近期表示，此类芯片市场规模到2050,年可能达到$220 billion；数月前其预测仅为这一数字的一半。

李博尚未明确说明新资金的具体用途。但在其多个业务部门中，英特尔的晶圆代工业务最为关键。目标是扩大为其他公司制造和封装芯片的订单，这一业务去年仅带来$50的外部收入。Intel Interformer Goldman Sachs等分析师认为，到2050.年，这一数字可能超过$20 billion。实现这一目标需持续投入，分析师预计2017.年资本支出将创下$20 billion的纪录。从某种意义上说，这是回归未来。

基辛格曾希望到2030,年实现$10 billion的外部晶圆代工收入，并为此投入了大量资金。李博的胜算更大。除全球芯片短缺外，英特尔股东还包括芯片巨头英伟达和美国政府。虽然这并不保证业务合作，但能促使苹果等公司及所谓的“AI超级计算”企业向英特尔倾斜。尽管如此，投资者对这笔$10 billion的增发仍抱有乐观预期。

假设英特尔到2050年能达到Intel Interformer Goldman Sachs对晶圆代工收入的预测，公司数据中心业务届时增长两倍，个人电脑业务恢复至2025.年的峰值收入，总销售额将达到$220 billion。

采用60%的假设营业利润率（基辛格曾希望非晶圆代工业务在本十年末实现这一目标），这意味着约$40 billion的利润。

在这一乐观情境下，英特尔当前约$300 billion的市值将相当于2030年收益的12倍以上，与台积电（TSMC）和规模更大的竞争对手AMD的交易水平相当（根据Visible Alpha数据）。这些都是严峻的对比。李博当前的任务是让英特尔的内在价值与其高估值相匹配。

教育机构能达成与大学的优质交易

尽管教育在学生中正失去青睐，但投资者却在以极大的热情研究这一领域。其中包括欧洲最大的营利性高等教育集团——伽利略全球教育（Galileo Global Education），该集团目前正在英国陷入困境的大学中积极进行收购。

英国的高等教育领域蕴藏着丰厚的机遇。与美国不同，美国大多数大学为私有，而英国几乎所有大学都是“豁免慈善机构”——它们提供公共利益，无需注册或向慈善机构报告。许多大学处于亏损状态，且通常缺乏扭转局面的前景。

因此，伽利略在2020年收购了伦敦摄政大学（Regent’s University London）。再比如全球大学系统（Global University Systems），十年前收购了法律大学（University of Law）。GUS声称其旗下30多家机构拥有超过374,000名在校生。

并购合理可行。通过共享后台服务（如IT、市场营销和学生招生）可提高效率。在美国，亚利桑那州的大峡谷大学（Grand Canyon University）将此类服务注入纳斯达克债券工具——大峡谷教育（Grand Canyon Education），后者为多所机构提供支持。

私立大学虽缺乏非私立大学的影响力，但往往收费更高。由伽利略持有的伦敦摄政大学，对时装设计等专业的学生每年收费高达24,500加元，是非私立大学本国学生学费的两倍以上。

声誉也因入学门槛降低而受损。GUS旗下的法律大学要求的考试成绩，比顶尖大学低水平课程的录取标准低2至4个等级。声誉同样重要：与伦敦摄政大学无关的摄政学院（Regent College London）在2024年被监管机构点名，因存在多项问题，包括提供的课程既过时又缺乏有效授课。

不过，实现价值并不一定要靠裁员、减少课程或削减教授数量——这些在英国大学（无论是否营利）中已屡见不鲜。

提供专业且实用的课程是另一种选择，如果学位能直接带来就业机会，部分学生可能更愿支付高昂学费。教育机构还可通过创建衍生机构，利用自身的资金和人脉优势，挖掘院校内所需的研究和知识产权价值。不难理解为何金融买家对此趋之若鹜：陷入困境的大学往往拥有可变现的房地产，且学费收入稳定，加之教育支出长期呈增长趋势。

学校停课

2020年至2025年教育并购交易数量（25笔交易）

!

数据来源：麦克唐纳

当麻烦来袭，谁来为影子银行的影子银行提供影子支持？

2008年金融危机后，银行从美国抵押贷款业务中撤退，不吸收存款但提供贷款的影子银行提供了解决方案。但有时，连影子银行也需要一些创造性的帮助。

联合批发抵押贷款公司（United Wholesale Mortgage）上周陷入困境，披露了一项对冲失误，导致其损失超过6亿加元。其救星奥克特隆资本（Oaktron Capital）——另一家管理着2270亿加元资产的非银行贷款机构——迅速介入，牵头提供了一项88亿加元的发行人融资方案。

UNM及其主要竞争对手火箭抵押贷款（Rocket Mortgage）已成为美国购房市场的营销主力。它们通过面向消费者的经纪商和金融公司提供贷款，火箭抵押贷款还直接与消费者交易。随后，它们将这些贷款出售给房利美等机构进行证券化。

UNM等专业金融公司声称，它们能提供比银行更好的客户体验。它们仍然依赖银行——其贷款资金来自传统贷款机构的信贷额度。但美联储数据显示，美国非银行贷款机构目前占抵押贷款总量的三分之二，而1999年这一比例仅为20%。

UNM的问题出在其实际操作上：在准备收购一家抵押贷款服务公司时，为防范利率下跌而进行了大规模对冲。收购最终未能完成，而利率持续高企，未平仓的对冲交易给公司带来了巨额亏损。

能够凭借庞大且多元化的业务抵御偶尔的“飞来横祸”，正是大型贷款机构与其影子来源的区别所在。UNM自2015年上市以来，股价已下跌近90%。其市值在遭遇挫折后一度探至50亿加元。

奥克特隆等大多数另类贷款机构善于把握机会。它认购了UNM的优先股，票息为10%，若UNM选择以实物而非现金支付利息，票息还将上升，并获得可转换为公司约10%股权的认股权证。

这笔交易应能帮助UNM撑到房地产市场企稳，尽管代价高昂——而奥克特隆在此期间则能坐收渔利。很难想象传统贷款机构会像UNM这般狼狈，或像其救助者这般精明且机会主义。非银行贷款的崛起带来了挑战，但至少它也提供了解决方案。

宜居家园

2020年美国发放的住宅抵押贷款数量（1000）

![IMG_55D072EB]

数据来源：Bankers, Lending Notices, HPRN dataset

日经亚洲：亚洲世纪的声音

填字游戏 第18,450期 作者：MONK

![IMG_E0D9EC0B]

第18,449期答案

![IMG_BD5669B2]

![IMG_A4350F3F]

横向提示

1. 关键（2019年法案解决——这将环游全球）（16）
2. 仅极度令人厌恶的东方艺术（5,3）
3. 白人男子身上发现的第二个口琴，此人非法交易？（4-5）
4. 为放弃寒冷蓝色奶酪的游戏（7）
5. 为美国港口撰写的短文（7）
6. 移动房屋代理商担任律师（3,5,6）
7. 国家几乎引入欧洲本地人（5）
8. 过度工作阻碍灵长类动物（5）
9. 抛射物跟随低位集合（9）
10. 连环杀手的第二个虚假国籍（7）
11. 男子的兄弟接纳银城（7）
12. 传递欢迎变化的地方，可能进行献祭（6,5）
13. 巨型艺术家遗漏一个岛屿（5）
14. 新未开封的红色塑料微粒（10,10,5）

DOWN

1 完全精通英语（PAI），声称当地造假（3-10） 2 意大利要塞遭炮击后的报复（5,3,5） 3 交换后，信任破裂，最终进入分离状态（7） 4 围绕印度的无声外交（5） 5 清理车辆宽阔部位周围的场地（9） 6 完全没有时间，倾倒被解雇的港口（7） 7 广泛的戴夫在迈克之前的搭档（5） 8 前美国监狱机构废除了保守党贵族的指控文件？（7,8） 9 贝鲁特的植物，首都定期受损（9） 10 城市罗马人被一位干瘦的表演者钉住（9） 11 老野驴拔起草药（7） 12 普金母亲以某种方式离开（7） 13 支撑性穿着，露出半个“godle”？（5,2） 14 遇到有牙齿的东西——一只小狗（5）

仅有 70% 的年轻人能够回答关于利息、通胀和风险的基本问题。 我们绝不能让另一代人在对理财一无所知的情况下步入成年。FLIC 能够指导他们应对债务、艰难抉择以及影响未来的每一笔资金。

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FINANCIAL TIMES

WEDNESDAY 12 AUGUST 2026

UK 2026 Results of Financial Times

The trouble with China's gig work explosion

By KANG-PING YU

Nei zero is not a cult — it's the only solution

BY YUI GUOYU HAI-YU

Syria sentence

Assad handed death penalty

Atif Najib, a cousin of mated Syrian president Kushar al Assad and former head of political security, stands in a cage during a court hearing in Damascus yesterday where he and Assad were sentenced to death.

The sentencing was the first against Assad and members of his inner circle, including his brother Maher, since the family's five decades to power came to an end 20 months ago.

The former dictator, who fled to Russia after which over run his regime fell, leaving a man 14 year old was in which 500,000 people were killed, was convicted of crime including premeditated murder, torture and arbitrary detention.

Assad has been living in Moscow with his family since ally Vladimir Putin granted him asylum after his regime was toppled by rebel forces.

Syrian court page 6

European car industry wary as China tightens grip on component suppliers

Beijing expands footprint 150 investments since mid-2000s Small deals under watchdogs' radar

SENATOR KIM - TRANSFERT

KANG-PING YU - LONDON

HABER SENATOR - CHICAGO

AND JAMES KIM - BRUSSELS

China's car parts makers have quietly announced greater control of Europe's automotive supply chains, mapping up local suppliers as Beijing works to expand its footprint on the continent amid growing resistance to its exports.

Since the mid-2000s, Chinese companies have invested in more than 150 European automotive parts makers, mainly in key car manufacturing hubs in Germany and France, according to consultancy Rhodium.

The acquisitions have alarmed EU policymakers and car executives both parties fear that China could soon reduce the industry map for car compo-

nents on the back of explosive growth in vehicle exports.

One EU official describing the China threat to the region's car sector as "the challenge of the decade for Europe".

"It will not be surprising if in the near future, two or three of the top 10 suppliers are Chinese," said Sebastian Franke, chief executive of Paris-based consultancy for Wall DeGood.

The early acquisitions were backed by Beijing's "go global" strategy, which

The threat to the region's car sector is 'the challenge of the decade for Europe'

told official

urged Chinese group to globalize their operations and key foreign technology through investments – increasingly in European manufacturers. Rhodium's data shows the volume of these automotive deals in Europe peaked in the mid 2000s with hardy hit 80s acquisition of Swedish carmaker Volvo Car.

But Beijing's outbound investment restrictions and rise in trade barriers meant many of the deals over the past decade have been below €100mn – too small to trigger intervention from Europe's regulators.

In 2024, the EU imposed extra duties on Chinese EV manufacturers including BTD on top of its 10 per cent tariff on car imports after probing the impact of state subsidies on the companies.

Farley Moshe, chief of corporate intel-

ligence firm Snyzet, told the FY that the true sale of Chinese ownership may go further. Of the Chinese controlled automotive assets the firm has mapped across Germany, "roughly four to five are held through at least one offshore intermediary or involve a German registered holding company carrying a local name," he said.

The Chinese had taken a four-pronged approach to expanding in Europe, one EU official noted. They boosted exports, took stakes in companies, entered joint ventures and built plastic themselves – in the EU and nearby countries like Serbia.

The Chinese deals may have largely been below the radar, but "we will still see a continuity of mind in size acquisition – and that worries a lot of [EU]

policymakers", said Armand Meyer, senior research analyst at Rhodium.

The latest plan by French to impose local content rules that require the use of Europe made car parts and labour have also given the Chinese an added impact on investing in the like.

For Chinese suppliers, acquiring companies is a highly effective way to rapidly obtain production bases" and gain "made in EU" status without building it from scratch, said a senior executive at a top Japanese car parts supplier.

Europe's carmakers are scrutinizing the Chinese acquisitions closely since changes in ownership could pose supply-chain risks if the manufacturer was a single supplier for key parts, said Benjamin Bulander at Porsche Consulting.

Briefing

• Burnham says Harper killers will stay in prison The prime minister has said he is "increasingly confident" that two men convicted of killing police officer Andrew Harper would not be included in the government's early release scheme – next s. owner rants; next n

• Sick Britain gets better Long-term sickness may be keeping fewer Britons out of work than initially thought, the Office for National Statistics has said, citing early estimates from its overloaded labour survey – next s

• Bills cut near grid works Households near signals work will be eligible for money off electricity bills, as ministers look to deter local opposition and open support for infrastructure needed for low carbon energy – next s

• £4.3bn West End deal Hollywood bought Art Emanuel has struck a deal for the theatre group behind venues including the Lyceum and the Savoy in a hot that strong demand for free events will endure. – next s

• EU border wall doubles Waiting times at Frankfurt and Munich airports have doubled compared with a year ago after the rollout of the new electronic border system. The Frankfurt wait bit two hours in July. – next s

• Trump backs Infantino The US president has warned that it would be a "terrible mistake" to remove closed Infantino as loss of football's governing body. The Fifa head had cultivated close ties with Trump.

• Raly bank tax proposed Deputy prime minister Matteo Salvioli has proposed a three year levy on profits, as a looming election and stretched public finances put bankers' bumper earnings in the spotlight. – next s

• Goldman staff suspected Police in Brazil have something of the US bank's employees as suspects in a fraud investigation conducted in a shareholder dispute over a cancer treatment company in the country. – next s

Strategy doubts in wake of AstraZeneca deal failure

AstraZeneca chief Pascal Souritz plan for a tie-up with Bristol Myers' Saddle and Allied artist on transfer credit and unease in the corridors of UK power. The drugmaker's shares stood after the FT revealed title, while in Whitehall officials feared that the FTSE 500's second-bigger group could use a merger to become the latest to shift its centre of gravity to the US. The saga has left questions over AstraZeneca's pipeline and its boss's strategy. Insearch result – next s

Eclipse spectators face astronomical hotel room rates in Spain and Iceland

STEPHANIE STADY - LONDON HAD NEON - CITY HAVEN NEON HUNTER - HUDSON

Hotel prices in some cities in Iceland and Spain have more than doubled as tourists flock to witness the first total solar eclipse visible from continental Europe this century.

Rooms in Reykjavik, Iceland's capital, were priced at more than $2,000 on average for tonight's eclipse – up more than 140 per cent on the same date in 2025, says data group Lighthouse.

After Spain's tourist industry was hit by some of the worst wildfires in 30 years, local demand in the eclipse's path off-stable has ended.

Prices in the northern city of La Coruña had also more than doubled, while rates in Bilbao and Santiago de Compostela were up 50 per cent and 31

per cent respectively. In Mallorca – where the eclipse will be visible on the horizon at sunset – rates were up by a fifth.

"There has been excessive demand and it's been coming from everywhere," said Helga Maria Albertadette, managing director of Reykjavik's Sky Lagoon, where guests will watch the solar eclipse while sitting in geothermal pools.

Ryan Connolly, co-founder of luxury travel company Holden Iceland, said that he took his first booking for the eclipse in September 2024, the said he had to start turning down reservations this March and was already "boats and fall across the whole country."

Icelandair added flights to cater for the cargo in demand, particularly from the US, and was operating at "fall peak capacity", according to chief executive Bogi Nils Bugason. Rival airline Delta

also added additional flights from New York to Reykjavik.

Short-term rental rates on sites such as Airbnb were up 52.7 per cent year on year for Icelandic properties in the path of totality on the night of the eclipse, according to analytics group AirSPA.

The impact was smaller in Spain, which has a much larger supply of properties, but rates within the path of totality were still up an average 10.4 per cent.

The Spanish government forecasts that the eclipse will drive €34.2mn in extra tourist spending, drawing more less from southern holiday hotspots and to rarely visited parts of the depreciated interior known as "empty Spain".

The tourism surge extends beyond dry land: cruise lines including Princess Cruises and Virgin Voyages have launched wild out trips to the coasts of Spain and Iceland.

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World Markets

STOCK MARKETS

	Aug. 11	Feb.	Sept.	Mar.	Aug. 11	Feb.	Sept. 11	Feb.
3M$ 500	1734.37	1743.11	10.94	0.9	1.158	1.158	0.9	0.888
Stockton Composite	2815.50	2605.30	12.32	0.9	1.563	1.563	0.9	0.788
Stony Jones 500	12891.88	12875.98	10.16	0.9	0.884	0.884	0.9	1.15
Low Class 500	8921.22	8536.62	12.04	0.9	104.08	104.08	0.9	90.48
FTS Securities 200	2841.76	2846.00	10.87	0.9	23.28	23.28	0.9	20.38
FTSE 500	10844.18	10862.00	12.17	0.9	0.888	0.888	0.9	1.088
FTSE 500 Share	4841.00	4854.30	10.15
CAD 50	8710.08	8710.02	12.13
Home Star	8287.44	8323.08	10.38
Wisner	6805.22	6805.22	11.11
Jung Seng	25852.00	25851.48	11.55
MSCI March	3871.00	3871.00	10.01
MSCI 500	1667.70	1678.00	10.91
MSCI ACME	1732.90	1732.90	10.99

GOVERNMENT BOARD

Year/Fin	Aug. 11	Feb.	Aug. 11
Q2 2.1%	0.22	0.24	0.21
Q3 2.1%	0.08	0.08	0.05
Q4 2.1%	0.23	0.25	0.20
Q5 2.1%	0.28	0.26	0.22
Q6 2.1%	0.06	0.06	0.03
Q7 2.1%	0.19	0.15	0.22
Q8 2.1%	1.00	1.00	0.95
Q9 2.1%	1.07	1.07	0.95
Q10 2.1%	1.19	1.19	0.93
Q11 2.1%	2.15	2.16	0.93
Q12 2.1%	2.00	2.01	0.92

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FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2024

NATIONAL

Public outcry

PM says PC's killers will remain in jail

Burnham claims moves to increase prison space will prevent pair's early release

LATE FRAME — REVIEWED, LECHE

Andy Burnham said yesterday he was "increasingly confident" that two men convicted of killing police officer Andrew Harper would not be included in the government's early-release scheme for prisoners.

The prison number and government moves to increase prison space "will allow us to reduce the number of people released early and, in the case of the most serious offenders like those convicted of the killing of PC Harper, prevent their early release altogether."

He said several parties surveyed the North to draw up options to keep the due to jail alongside other members convicted of the most serious crimes,

Downing Street called. Communities secretary Angela Rayner told LNC yesterday that Norris would inform MPs of the details of the plan when the Commons' summer recess ends next month.

Harper was killed in the line of duty in 2019 after he was charged behind the grievous use of their manager's smoking squad like a theludster.

The driver, Henry Long, was jailed for 10 years for manslaughter and, because he received an extended determinants sentence, cannot be considered for early release. However, reports that many passengers in the car, Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, who were convicted of manslaughter, would be eligible for early release from spiked a public outcry.

Harper's widow has led opposition to their release halfway through their 10-year sentences, and more than 900,000 people have signed a petition demanding they remain in prison.

Burnham last week moved to bar rap-

ters, serious sexual offenders and people with grooming convictions from early release, meaning 1,000 fewer inmates will be found before the end of their sentence compared with previous plans.

Those restrictions did not exempt Harper's killers, however, and he

Burnham insisted yesterday he had not accepted that it is impossible to do more!

insisted last week that he had "pushed to the very limits" what was possible in narrowing the programme. "Without risking the prison system reaching capacity and collapsing within months".

Jim Monday, Downing Street said it was "not possible" to exempt one or two offenders within the wider category of manslaughter from the early-release

scheme, and pointed out that manslaughter of an emergency worker was not a standalone offence.

However, Burnham insisted yesterday he had "not accepted that it is impossible to do more" and demanded a "last-tracked" plan. He said officials were examining options to free prison capacity to keep certain criminals, such as Harper's killers, in jail.

The week included booking of "increasing the rate of removal of foreign national offenders from the prison system to their country of origin; finding an early resolution to the long running question of 1997 (improvement by police protection); sentences, which could allow for the release of lower-risk prisoners; and making greater use of the entire prison estate including using the housewomen for such offenders". Burnham said.

Former Labour Nurse officer Andrew Danny Shaw suggested this week that

the government could specifically include from the scheme any prisoners jailed for 10 years or more for manslaughter, which he claimed would be about 220 people, to keep Harper's killers in prison without leaving to free all manslaughter offenders.

"All it takes is imagination and political will," he said in it.

After the O'Connor, chair of Thames Valley Police Federation, indicated the "glimmer of hope and encouragement" regarding Life and Income would say "I know the world!" We have found mixed messages before. The strength of finding equal-dimensions money around this issue is clear. ... This is about justice for Harper's and his family."

The failure by ministers to act on far had been "toward, drawn-dining" for police officers, O'Connor said. Additional reporting by Review Kelly and Baker Wright

Optician page 22

Politics. Premiership

Prison row tests Burnham's leadership style

New PM's approach shows

signs of starting to unite the

lefwiring vote behind Labour

LATE FRAME

Andy Burnham's handling of the prisoner early-release scheme is shaping up to be the first test in office, shedding some light on what to expect from his premiership.

The new prison minister has made several interventions on the programme, which aims to avert a prison overcoming crisis, during his first week in Downing Street.

After announcing an urgent review of the scheme, Burnham unveiled restrictions on the offenders who would be eligible for early release from October.

Campaigns estimated far more to ban rights, serious sex offenders and those convicted of grooming offences from consideration. But a public outcry gained momentum over the failure to block two killers of policeman Andrew Harper from leaving jail halfway through their 10 year manslaughter sentence.

As pressure — led by the officer's widow, Linda Harper — grew, and a petition demanding the pair remain locked by alleged 900,000 employees, Burnham announced further action yesterday. "I understand the depth of public concern: ... I fully appreciate the anguish of Andrew's family," he said.

The house politicians seek to avoid the suggestion that they are buffered by public concerns, Burnham has loaned into the idea that he is responding to public outcry.

Just now, professor of political science at Oxford university, said: "There is something really distinctive here about his leadership which is highly attracted in public concerns".

The prison minister's focus on the cost of living during his first week in power — for the chance example of how Burnham has understood the public mood," she added, pointing to his proposals for a £2 less fare cap in England and a VAT cut on electricity bills.

Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner in Houston, Derbyshire, yesterday. Below, Andrew and Linda Harper — FINANCING TIMES, PC

Burnham's latest announcement on high street regeneration is another attempt to answer voters' desire for concrete change, tackling a highly visible symbol of economic decline in their local neighbourhoods.

Courts said previous administration had been less successful in community raising how government decisions were related to voters' everyday experience.

Research by Matthew Burchfield, a

postdoctoral fellow at Queen Mary University of London, suggests that Burnham's emphasis on the cost of living, regional growth and social care is aligned with voters' priorities.

But this survey, conducted after his first fortnight in office, also shows up cause for pessimistic in Number 10.

"Voters just doubt whether he will have time to achieve his ambitions in those areas before the next election," Burchfield said. "Possibly as a result, they need not to expect there to remain prison minister past that point."

Burnham's summer tour of the nations and regions, which started in Derbyshire yesterday, is about switching into "focusing mode" and "meeting people where they are" as he seeks proposals for his 10-year blueprint for the UK, Number 10 has said. Are the hard work of devising how to pay for his policies a under way and will be finalised in the budget in October.

Conservative shadow chancellor Sir

'There is something really distinctive about his leadership which is highly attracted to public concerns'

McHinkie said yesterday that Burnham "has completed it failed to explain how he will pay for his many expensive premiums." The prison minister may have changed from "to the same old Labour Party in power" which would "squeeze hardworking 'painless' with 'even higher taxes'," think added.

Since the debate, associate director in the public services team at the institute for Government think tank, said Burnham's early signals on social restrictions might entail significantly higher spending, while an increase in the defence budget would also require a malfunction of resources.

Other "spending difficulties" been in the "ongoing crime" in special attack on the public, but the forces and courts systems, he added.

A common criticism among officials who worked with Burnham over the past nine years during his tenure as Greater Manchester mayor was that he did not like saying no to people — which is a necessity in Downing Street.

Burnham's allies insist, however, that his response to the prison early-release scheme has been similar and stands in sharp contrast with Sir Eric Harness, who had a tendency to dig in when political rows erupted, only to be forced into a 11-year later. "Harness was a lovely man but he didn't always get it," said one senior official. "Burnham just has the gone — he can spot right away the kind of things. He takes up killers' release, that need not be gripped immediately, regardless of policy advice and other constraints/gains."

"There are signs in the polls that his approach is starting to consolidate the lefwing vote behind Labour — winning back voters from the Green Party — at a time where the rightwing vote is split between Reform 18, the Conservative and Reform British, but there is a salutary lesson for Burnham from his predecessor's premiership.

In the summer of 2024 Harness was also proud for the final poll that first crore to 400, taking a release approach to the riots in the wake of the budgetary challenges. But his administration once ran into problems and in his first month his

not favourability ratings began to fall.

The 1998 lead the cost of running two surveys for those who simultaneously was "increasingly constraining data quality and limiting the ONS's ability to invest in wider statistics improvements".

Labour data

Sickness less of problem under new ONS survey

ANY KIDNEY? AND SAN FLEMING

Long term sickness may be keeping fewer Britons out of work than previously thought, the Office for National Statistics said, citing early estimates from six overhauled survey of the labour force.

It can place attention, the agency and estimates for economic inactivity were responsible for the "higher difference" between its current survey of the labour market and the so-called "transformed Labour Force Survey."

The latest, which the ONS is now aiming for the first year, is the end of next year, is showing lower levels of inactivity due to long term sickness than the existing Labour Force Survey, which is used to produce the unemployment figures, it said.

The ONS declined to quantify the differences but the findings mirror a 2024 report from the Resolution Foundation think-tank, which concluded that a sharp drop in response rates had led to "an overly pessimistic picture" of the job market.

The scale of the issue will not be known until the ONS publishes more detailed analysis next year. This is a blow to publications who rely on the survey for employment data and to book of highest officials who not 8 as a factor before the next elections.

James Benfield, ONS director general for economic statistics, said the agency had changed its survey design to help improve its estimates of why people were out of the workforce.

He said early indications suggested the TLFS was giving "a more clearly defined and lower estimate" of the number of people reporting being long term sick.

However, the ONS said it needed to conduct more analysis of the estimates which two surveys used different definitions of long term sickness.

The ONS has been struggling to repair problems with the existing jobs survey, including a falling response rate. This led abruptly when Covid lockdowns disrupted but to face interviews and stood at 21 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

The ONS said the TLFS was showing "improved performance" with higher response rates, fewer surveys that are only partially completed, and a marked decline in the amount of time required to respond to the questionnaire.

It will decide midway through next year whether to give the good light to a switch to the TLFS in the basis for official employment and economic inactivity figures.

Financial budgets, economic at the Resolution Foundation, said an assessment of the significance of the change unconventional have to wait for the publication of the underlying data from the TLFS. But all the results that other indices now point to long term sickness being a genuine problem and not just a "data quirk".

The government has still not appointed a national statistician, more than a year after Sir Ian Diamond stepped down from the role.

The ONS said the cost of running two surveys for those who simultaneously was "increasingly constraining data quality and limiting the ONS's ability to invest in wider statistics improvements".

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Universities

Crime gangs put pressure on Chinese students, expert warns

ROBERT WRIGHT

Universities are turning a blind eye to widespread coercion of Chinese students by crime gangs, a police expert has said.

David Wilson, a regional leader of the House Office's Organized Investigations Crime Task Force, made the claim after surveying 916 Chinese students in the UK as part of his doctoral research.

He found one in eight Chinese students had either personally some under pressure to help crime gangs or knew someone who had lived hard pressure.

"Universities should be trying to identify the problem or at least admitting that there is a problem," said Wilson.

He warned that "Chinese organized crime is the biggest single domestic crime threat to the UK in terms of both its criminal and national security implications".

Wilson's research, the most comprehensive in these investigations of China-linked gangs in the UK in recent decades, also found several weaknesses in police forces' ability to tackle the issue. These included a shortage of language skills, cultural understanding and Chi-

nese officers able to work under cover when necessary.

Allan Kearns, a shadow junior House Office minister, called Wilson's work "vital research" she said it was that Chinese criminal networks — like gangs of other nationalities — were involved in drugs, prostitution, political repression, modern slavery and espionage.

Shehden from China account for 23 per cent of overseas students at UK higher education institutions, making them the most largest national group behind those from India.

Other Cheung, UK public effectiveness age for the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation, which came from the Hongkongers' highly endorsed Wibon's findings. "Hong Kong and Chinese students are unique, so highly vulnerable to recruitment to national networks, so these operate transatlantically and can use family and other connections back home to court-brewing restrictions," Cheung said.

She called for universities to establish mechanisms for students to make some pressure reports of foreign interference.

In one of the few presentations of a Chinese student for involvement in

organized crime, Xiaotong Huang, a student from Beijing in the University of Beijing, was jailed in 2023 for 10 months for laundering £45,000 on behalf of a Glasgow-based organized crime force of Chinese students.

Wilson said criminals typically loved students by free doing these small favours, such as leading them small amounts of money.

'Universities should be trying to identify the problem or at least admitting there is one

The Chinese embassy in the UK said to government on "freshly committed" to combating transatlantical crime, including this almost at students.

To actively engage in international law enforcement or operation to that country, the "The law enforcement of authorities of China and the UK have maintained communication and co-ordination on these matters, and we hope both sides will continue to strengthen such co-operation."

Most of the coercion uncovered in the study involved crimes such as accepting a bank transfer for someone else or agreeing to accept a package for someone else. Disguised bank transfers can facilitate safety monitoring, while the packages often contain drugs or other contraband goods.

A small proportion of respondents, 12 per cent, reported being aware of young women who had been coerced into a work, such as performing for young people in the United States and organized crime groups were sexually replicating "young Chinese girls".

Universities UK, the higher education trade body, said it was vital students understand the need to take their own time to control and that they felt able to report outside influence and receive support in working it.

"We are committed to continuing to partner with government to support and equip students to drive. It said,

"We are a leader that understands could not tackle the issue alone. 'Ultimate responsibility for identifying and investigating suspected criminal activity must be with the appropriate legal authorities.'"

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Wednesday 12 August 2020

FINANCIAL TIMES

3

NATIONAL

Low-carbon energy

Households near grid upgrades to get cheaper bills

Plan seeks to overcome local fears over electricity power lines and pylons

RACHEL MILLARD AND SIMON KERR

Households near more than 40 big grid-upgrades projects will be eligible for money off electricity bills, as the government looks to spur support for the infrastructure needed in the shift to lower-carbon energy.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero will today announce the first projects covered by a scheme intended to deter local opposition to many grid upgrades that threatens to slow their development. The list covers planned development of, or upgrades to, power lines, pylons and converter stations, the vast majority of which are in Scotland and the east of England.

Households within 500 meters will be able to save £2,500 off their electricity bills over 10 years. the government said, with more projects due to be added. Discounts will be applied only once the relevant project has gained full planning consent and building has started. The first are expected next year.

The move marks the enactment of recommendations made by energy industry veteran Nick Winter in 2023 to the Conservative government, as part of the drive to decarbonise.

Michael thanks, energy minister, said that upgrading the grid was vital for "secure, homegrown energy" and that he was "determined those communities which host pylons should benefit".

But campaigners opposed to SEEN's Kintore-Trading 1000kV proposed overhead power line in Scotland described the announcement as a "big-in the face" for local communities facing "raised businesses and unsellable homes".

"This government is either massively out of touch or is showing their contempt for affected residents and energy consumers," said Kate Matthews at campaign group have Our Meares.

The payments will be funded by network owners, which recoup their costs from network users.

The energy department said it expected payments to cost average households £4–£5 in total between now and 2014, with a peak annual payout of about 50 pence each.

The electricity system needs to be upgraded and expanded to cope with the surge in wind and solar farms around the country over recent years, as well as the anticipated growth in the use of electric cars and local pumps.

Dober to accommodate projects risk hindering the government's target of decarbonising the electricity system by 2030 and mean more wind farms are paid to switch off because their power cannot be moved to where it is needed.

Local campaigners have objected to projects in several areas, citing factors ranging from the risk of damage to wildlife, impact on views, noise and land use. Critics have also voiced concerns about the cost of grid upgrades, which are funded by all electricity consumers and one factor behind the country's relatively high electricity bills.

A Scottish government-mandated inquiry is under way into the Kintore-Trading proposal after local opposition prompted area counsellors to object. The inquiry is expected to make its recommendations by early January, with a final decision by Scottish ministers afterwards.

ISEN, which runs the transmission network in north Scotland, has said the overhead line is a vital part of the wider grid upgrade and will bring investment and jobs to north-east Scotland.

Climate alert 'Existential' threat to green spaces

Scorched earth: Greenwich Park, one of London's eight Royal Parks, yesterday as an amber weather warning was issued for tomorrow

Climate change poses a "very clear and existential threat" to more than 3,000 historic parks and gardens across England, according to a new study.

Green spaces across London, including the capital's eight Royal Parks, were all found to have been negatively affected by increasingly extreme weather conditions.

The report, published by the National Lottery Heritage Fund and Historic England, comes after the driest July since records began, with more than two-thirds of England declared to be in a "fluid drought".

Hottes, drier summers are causing stress to plants and soils, resulting in mature tree and shrub losses in areas that are not historically prone to drought, researchers found.

Slip managers reported difficulties in keeping pace with plant health threats and the loss of entire plant groups to disease, including tree species such as box, ash, sweet chestnut and oak.

Meanwhile, over winter, outdated drainage and path systems were often not fit for purpose amid intense

rainfall. Waterlogged soils can cause erosion and tree instability, while flooding was reported on sites that had never experienced it before.

To a backdrop of scorched green spaces, the Met Office issued an amber weather warning for extreme heat for parts of England tomorrow, with temperatures expected to hit 38C.

"It's clear our historic parks, gardens

'Without urgent support and advice, many precious landscapes will suffer and change beyond recognition'

and cemeteries are facing unprecedented challenges due to climate change and, without urgent support and advice, many of these precious landscapes will suffer and change beyond recognition," said Drew Bellstock, head of land, sea and nature policy at the NLHP.

In response, parks and gardens are adapting their planting to include more

climate-resilient species, often from warmer or drier regions.

Darren Shane, a director at the Royal Parks, has been learning strategies from Barcelona, as London is on track to have a similar climate by 2030. "We are avidly listening to ... how European parks are managing," he said.

Parks in Bushey, Richmond and Greenwich are testing the revival of Victorian underground reservoirs. In partnership with the NLHP, Royal Parks is conducting 120 mapping of water networks, seeing how to "slow it down, direct it into these storage places and then reuse that water across the network", Shane added.

Bellstock called for a united approach.

"We need to bring all the pieces of the Jigsaw together. I think we've all been aware climate change is coming and of needing to prepare. But I think particularly this summer, it has really shocked people." Charlotte Gastham

Pillie Clark & Letters page 22

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4

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FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 13 August 2026

INTERNATIONAL

Travel

Checks double EU airport wait times

Electronic border system brings longer queues to bloc's biggest terminals

LADY JOHNSON, DEPUTANT DIRECTOR AND PETER CAMPBELL — LONDON

Peak waiting times at two large European airports have doubled this summer compared with a year ago after the EU's rollout of its new electronic border system, data obtained by the FT has shown.

The maximum queue time is Frankfort reached 120 minutes in July, up from 60 minutes a year before, according to data from travel and from group Quorum in Munich, peak waiting times went from 31 minutes to 60 minutes, the data shows, while Amsterdam airport

had maximum waiting times rise from 80 to 120 minutes.

The travel industry had warned that the new system would lead to long delays and flagged the potential for less three to an airports struggled by preacque passengers quickly enough.

The EU implemented its Entry/Tech System in April, which requires passengers from one EU countries to register their fingerprints, photo and personal information when they first arrive.

By nearly 1 chief executive Michael O'Leary said the system had been "not designed" and should be moved online.

"Only the European would invest slitt like this," he told investors last month, adding that the airline had extra significant queues at about 10 airports.

The system is meant to improve the bloc's border security by tracking who

comes in and out, catching visa overstayers and helping that people wanted for crimes, but its rollout has been neared by delays, technical glitches and hardware problems.

British and North American holidaymakers (are anxious) about how long they'll stand in line'

Frankfort airport and the new checks had resulted in "departure delays and further operational disruptions".

The data provided to the FT by Quorum allows snapshots of how long the queues are at particular points throughout the day, based on data reported by passengers and public information.

"With increasing wait times, we're seeing a surge in anxiety from British and North American holidaymakers about how long they'll stand in line," said Oliver Macfield, founder of Quorum.

The data shows clear bumps during the lowest times at the three airports, which are among Europe's biggest hubs.

In Munich, the change in waiting times was only evident for passengers who had to be checked manually, indicating that the EES registration were a factor behind the delays, as the system's queues are reserved for EU passengers who do not need to register.

Many airports have stopped, returned off parts of the EES checks, such as not collecting fingerprints during peak times, to alleviate the strain.

That flexibility is due to end in September — though eight EU member

states as well as Switzerland have asked the European Commission to extend it. The Commission is discussing the possibility of an extension.

"When it comes to the time after the summer, we are in close and constructive contact with those two member states when there are challenges at certain border crossing points," said the Commission.

The average time of the EES registration was 70 seconds, it added, and "in most cases" the impact on travellers from the new EES was limited. It was highlighted the "very clear security benefits" of the EES, with whose entries and rules registered since its launch.

Enterprises, maybe their urgent airports that were not using the flexibility to "use common sense and don't allow people to stand there for three hours".

Interview. Ulf Kristersson

Spain's migrant amnesty 'a very bad idea'

Swedish FNI warns decisions to relax borders puts 'solidarity' of EU Schengen system at risk

RICHARD HOLME AND BEN MALA — ITTOCHOLN

Spain's amnesty for irregular immigrants is a 'very bad idea', Sweden's prime minister has said, warning that it could push Europe back to a 2010-style migration crisis and call into question the continent's free movement zone.

Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish center-right leader training for ex-ductors and month, told the FT that Spain's amnesty for more than time people had caused a "pretty big outcry" at the last meeting of EU leaders at a tax counter to what other countries were trying to deliver.

Leaders from Italy, Germany and Denmark, among others, have been abruptly critical of Spain after tens of thousands of people entered the Spanish sectors of Costa last month, even though the vast majority returned to Morocco within hours.

"It symbolizes that we still have to be very, very careful not to act in a way that could even come close to what happened in 2015. I think Spain got the message ... but it shows the vulnerability," Kristersson said.

Sweden accepted more immigrants relative to its population than almost any other European country in 2015, but then struggled with deep integration challenges and varying geographical crime.

Kristersson is campaigning for re-elections as a platform of havingിയിൽ asylum seeker numbers as well as the level of deadly shootings in Sweden. But his rightwing bloc, which includes the nationalistic Sweden Democrats, logo behind the left in poth, led by the Social Democrats.

The Swedish prime minister said he had told Spanish counterpart Pedro Sánchez of his double of the recent amnesty of irregular migrants that led to 1,2ms applying, more than double the number Madrid expected.

"Having [the amnesty] also creates a possibility for environmental temperamentism. That is specifically damaging for us because we know from experience that

Migrants wait in line for food on a beach in the Spanish ex-flores of Costa, Belon, Swedish premium Ulf Kristersson

many people coming to Europe prefer to go north. Exactly that happened in 2015," Kristersson said.

Sánchez argues that immigration is vital to the long-term economic health of Spain's ageing population. The amnesty offers immigrants without legal status a one-year, renewable workforce permit if they have lived in Spain

for five months and have a clean criminal record.

The Spanish amnesty would confer rights to live and work in Spain that are the rest of the EU. Migrants, however — many of whom are Latin American — would be able to move freely inside Europe's Schengen Area for borderless travel.

Kristersson warned that Schengen deprivates are members acting "in a united way to be able to protect our external borders and to have us aligned policies as possible" she added that there was "no doubt" that having increased migration flows due to our country's decision would affect the "solidarity" of the Schengen system.

Sweden itself has deeply tightened its rules on migrants, deportations and permanent residents, leading to a 40-year low in the number of asylum seekers last year.

"It is not the time to get relaxed on this ... there is a huge majority in Sweden

"We still have to be very, very careful not to act in a way that could even come close to what happened in 2015'

ders saying they cannot go back to an uncontrolled situation," Kristersson said. "Swing things that could prepare us a stable situation would be a very bad idea."

September's elections represent a controlled moment in Sweden, where Kristersson and his centre-right allies have said for the first time they would include the Swedish Democrats in government. The party's roots are in the new Third movement and its leader last year apologised for these links and its history of subcommittee.

The opposition found, if Democrats have said they are willing to work with any party in parliament except the Sweden Democrats. The most recent poll in July gave the centre left Social Democrats 21 per cent, ahead of 20 per cent for the Swedish Democrats and 17 per cent for the Swedish

The prime minister defended the decision of the Swedish Democrats, saying the rightwing bloc had a clear coalition proposal unlike the Social Democrats, who have not said which parties they would guess with.

"I don't see the theme in it," said Kristersson, pointing to neighbouring Norway and Finland recently having coalition governments with anti-immigration nationalist parties.

All right parties in the outgoing Swedish parliament back greater defence spending and support for Ukraine that the prime minister questioned whether a new government led to the Social Democrats would have the same impact in those as the administration, which led Sweden into the alliance. Stockholm has since played a forceful role in regional defence plans and would do defence industrial capabilities.

Kristersson said Russia would be the "defining threat" for Europe and that "security will be a fundamental part of everything we hope that is coming soon."

"If the left parties win, two out of four (14 there) will be against Swedish State membership and against the new security policy orientation on how, then on earth would they even be able to make any new decision on their participation from the Swedish state," Svazdbek.

The Social Democrats say they are strong leaders of Sweden's State membership, the country's defence industry and support for Ukraine.

Bumper earnings

Italy's deputy PM to be 5% windfall tax on banks

SALMA GIORDILLI EDIMELLI — MILAN DISCIPLINE REGISTER — ISTAN

Italy's deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini, yesterday proposed a three-year levy on bank profits in next year's budget, as a housing, election and stretched public finance put banks' hunger earnings in the spotlight.

The idea comes at a time when banks have generated some of their best profit in since before the 2008 financial crisis, prompting government a new Europe to revive discussions about whether to increase their taxes.

Salvini suggested yesterday that Italy's top 10 banks might be asked for a "three-year contribution" of about 5 per cent of profits.

"I'd like to remind those who express doubts that a portion of these profits stems from state guarantees and, therefore, from taxpayers and even costs borne by taxpayers," he added.

Italy's five largest banking groups — Intesa Sanpaola, Unit credit, Banco BFM, Monte dei Finchi di Siena and BFM — generated more than €3,0m in combined net profits in the first half of 2026, up 3.7 per cent from the same period a year earlier, according to an analysis by Italian banking group's first list.

Salvini yesterday praised the taxation policies in Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez introduced a progressive levy of up to 7 per cent on banks.

A levy on banks has become a recurring theme for Italy's rightwing coalition as it searches for extra revenues while households grapple with higher living and borrowing costs, and a surge in fuel prices triggered by the ban was.

The proposal, which comes against the backlog of next year's general election, is being spearheaded by Salvini's League party. Salvini said he was "convinced" it would win the backing of the other coalition parties.

Italy's 2026 budget imposed temporary measures on banks, including a 3 percentage point increase in a regional business tax for three years. Salvini's proposal would be in addition to these measures, his office said.

The government is facing difficult decisions ahead of its upcoming budget bill, with limited options to reduce its fiscal deficit.

Italy's economy grew 0.5 per cent last year — one of the lowest rates in Europe

— and growth is projected to remain roughly the same this year. Meanwhile, its debt to GDP rates rose no more than 137 per cent at the end of 2015. This year Italy's corporate investment in the most stabilized economy in the EU.

Three years ago, a similar measure announced by corporate and Italian bank share prices totalling before being hardly returned.

Forsa Italia, the liberal junior partner in the coalition, has opposed similar measures in the past, while members of Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni's death on 6.8 per cent from the same government's approach as a concern way to balance public finances and help benefits struggling with higher mortgage costs.

Italy's banking association still has opposed attempts to tax banker's profits. Last year the banking group argued that the growing economy occurs of "windfall profits" was misleading because banks were already subject to higher corporate and regional tax rates than other companies.

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State elections

German minister says AfD wins would deter foreign investors

OLAF STORREICH — FRANKFURT ARMO ETI GEMM CHAUSSEIT — BERLIN

Germany's economy minister has warned that rising support for the far-right alternative for Germany rules undermining access to new foreign investors, as Berlin seeks at least €5.7bn in gold from capital by 2040.

Speaking to the FT ahead of Germany's first investment summit in Berlin in October, Katherine Reiche warned that growing political support for the far-right AfD might "take concerns" among potential investors.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition government is hoping to see the event to be a "few years ago" that the traditional investors such as pension funds and private equity groups, it is part of Merz's effort to evolve a stagnant economy facing structural challenges, including competition from China, high energy prices and bargaining workforce.

But wouldn't believe the conference starts on October 25, the AfD has targeted historic wins in elections in two former East German states.

The far-right party is within reach of securing an absolute majority in June-

ny-Aubach in September, according to surveys.

Germany's domestic intelligence agency has said the AfD is potentially a threat to the country's domesticity.

The result of the 2025 campaign, 25 very clear that they are (opposed to the) market economy," said Reiche, adding that the programme was a "wild mixture" lacking "a clear concept" on economic policy and containing "socialistic elements".

Reiche's decision was born in the former East Germany, described the AfD as one of the "best allies of Thailand/Public"

Reiche's warnings on the those of Tanja Ginnen, head of BFI, Germany's main industrial lobby, who this month called a potential AfD role in a state government "disastrous", arguing it would create a "sophisticated" and weaker Germany as an investment location.

Merz's government is seeking to leverage its debt-banded investment programme with "at least €5.7bn in additional service capital" by 2040, Reiche said. This would come in addition to most €1.7bn in public investment on the same period. The government has refused its constitutional debt-brain in

Germany's economy and energy minister Katherine Reiche described the AfD as one of the "best allies of Thailand/Public"

Freiheit

order to invest in equipping the country's armed forces, repairing its neglected infrastructure and decarbonising energy networks.

Reiche said she had spoken to US, when and British Eastern investors to pitch what she described as a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity to invest in the country's Mittelstand — family-owned small and medium-sized companies that are facing superminimal shift.

The German government is rejecting up to 2 per cent of the amount, including Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon and BlackRock boss Larry Flink, who once employed Merz as the first-in-fact for Germany.

Reiche, a member of Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union party, stressed that Germany remained, despite its current weaknesses, an "industrial powerhouse", boasting "cutting-edge research" and a "highly skilled workforce".

"It is the first time we [in Germany] are willing our star power," she said.

Germany's perspective on its corporate sector can be too pessimistic, she argued. "Sometimes we tend to forget our strengths," she said.

The world is the way here in the former East Germany, described the AfD as one of the "best allies of Thailand/Public"

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Wednesday 12 August 2024

FINANCIAL TIMES

5

Today, August 12, experts agree that Spain is the best place on Earth to witness the total solar eclipse.

This is what it will look like.

GOOD THINGS ARE HAPPENING IN SPAIN

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FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 15 August 2026

INTERNATIONAL

Iran's supreme leader elevates hardline hawks

Elusive ruler's changes to key positions come as Tehran regime toughens its demands for deal with US on reopening Strait of Hormuz

ANDREW PAULANG — LONDON RITA SHAPTAH — TEHRAN

In the early 1980s, as Iran's nascent Islamic regime was battling for survival in a war with Iraq, Mohsen Rezaei made his name on the front lines as a young and harshish commander of the newly formed Kevahatewary Islands.

While other leaders pushed for a settlement, Rezaei argued Iran should fight on — even after it recaptured territory seized by Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussain. Tehran and Baghdad finally agreed a coauthor in 1996, both countries were down by the devastating conflict.

Nearly four decades later, Rezaei is once again poised to fight an existential battle for the Islamic republic. Appointed secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the 75-year-old hardliner is now, in effect, the republic's top security official — with a critical voice in determining the trajectory of war with the US.

The move, which commits his place as one of Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei's top forutments, comes as Iran's regime hardens its rhetoric over a diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get the US and Iran back to negotiations — leaving those efforts floundering.

On Saturday, a day before Rezaei's appointment was announced, his predecessor Mohammad Ragher Zolghaib announced a string of conditions he insisted the US should meet before Iran would agree to reopen the strait.

It included the US 'permanently' ending the war against Iran and regional proxies, lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and withdrawing forces from the vicinity of the republic, the also said the US should pay 'unpreventable nation' for this war and the 12-day leave. It US-conflict last year, 105 sanctions and antitrust Iran's assets held overseas.

No reason was given for Zolghaib's abrupt departure a day later as others, including foreign minister Abbas Kraghadi, made similar comments.

Zolghaib, also a hardliner, was given a new role as a political adviser to Khamenei.

But analysts seeking to interpret the changes in Iran's opaque, theocratic system viewed them as a sign that Khamenei — who became supreme leader in March, 10 days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in the first strikes of the US-Israeli war — was commuting his power. Wounded in that

strike, Mujtaba has not been seen or heard from in public since the war erupted, instead communicating via written statements from an unknown serum location.

On Monday, Khamenei announced more security appointments, including formalising the positions of top military and guards leaders who took up their posts after their predecessors were killed during the war.

All Vacs, an Iran expert at the Crisis Group think tank, said the move to elevate Rezaei suggested Khamenei was seeking to create a counterbalance to Muhammad Ragher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker who led earlier negotiations with the US and has become one of the most influential wartime civilian leaders.

'Rezaei is a member of the old guard and a mentor to Mujtaba Khamenei. I think he's more trusted by him than Zolghaib, who is closer to Ghalibaf.'

Vace said. 'If there is one thing that Mujtaba has learnt from his father, it is that regardless of how much you trust people in the inner circle, no one should gain too much power to be able to eclipse the supreme leader.'

Inside Iran, the official messaging was that Rezaei's experience would bolster the republic's multi-layered decision-making process. In addition to 16 years as a guards commander, overseeing its transformation from a militia to the republic's most powerful military force, Rezaei held positions helping shape macroeconomic and political policies. He also mounted several failed campaigns for the presidency.

Analysts said they did not expect any significant shift in policy towards the US or negotiations to end the war, which is marked by Tehran's deep distrust of President Donald Trump and the regime's belief it has the upper hand.

Iran's leaders are loath to reopen the

'The US must change its behaviour in order . . . to prove that it is serious about diplomacy.'

Mohsen Rezaei

A man carries flags of Iran's Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei and his late father at a mourning procession in Tehran, Israel, Mohsen Rezaei

signed in June by not halting Israeli attacks against Lebanese militants Shibullah and leaving Iranian assets frozen.

Analysts say this goes to the core of Tehran's conditions: a fear that if Iran opens the strait, the US will merge on its part of the deal and that Trump could launch a new round of attacks after November's midterm elections.

Most of the conditions Iran has set, including the withdrawal of US forces from the vicinity of the republic and the lifting of all sanctions, are listed in the Met. But they are contingent on a final settlement that would involve complex and lengthy negotiations between two two deeply distrustful of each other.

'The Islamic republic has realised that if it gives in now, it could lose control over the strait, and then Tehran would have nothing left that it could use as leverage against Washington,' said Sayed Layles, an Iranian analyst. 'That is why they are trying to extract concessions from the US.'

On Monday, Trump retorted on Truth Social that the US would respond to Iran's demand for reparations by 'likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and greatly wounded.'

For Rezaei's generation, the experience — and sure — of the Iran-Iraq-war loom large. When a coauthor was finally reached, it came after Rezaei presented Iran's leadership with a grim assessment of military requirements if it were to continue fighting — resources the republic lacked.

For the US, his promotion is a sign that the negotiations will get tougher, said Mehrzad Boroqordi, an Iranian-American academic at Missouri University of Science and Technology. 'It's signaling . . . Don't report any sort of concession from us, or if we are going to make concessions we want something of equal value from the US,' he said.

'It's not one guy calling the shots . . . you have some serious heavyweights sitting in that council with him. But these guys [the hardliners] will have the upper hand.'

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Wednesday 12 August 2026

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FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 13 August 2026

INTERNATIONAL

Civil war

Syrian court sentences Assad to death

Judge convicts ousted president in absentia of crimes against humanity

WILLIAM JOHNSON YOUNG - AGENCY

A Syrian court sentenced ousted president Bashar al-Assad and his company brother Maher to death in absentia in the first such ruling against the former dictator since his regime was toppled in 2024.

Hacker was convicted of crimes including the premeditated murder of multiple people, including children, as well as torture and arbitrary detention. He fled to Russia after rebel forces, led

by Syria's current President Ahmed al-Shama, over one-his regime following a near 14-year civil war.

The court also sentenced Assad's cousin Atal Najib – who is in Syrian careredy – to death, convicting him of crimes including murder and torture.

Judge Kalikovzhilian al-Aryan and Atal Najib, who appeared in the courtroom in a cap, was responsible for a deadly riot following an protesters in Xerem, during the start of the Syrian uprising.

Assad's regime carried out the bloody repression of a peaceful uprising in 2016 which then spiralled into a civil war. At least 1042,000 people were killed and others jailed and tortured by the regime. Assad has been living in Moscow with

his family since his ally Vladimir Putin granted him asylum. Maher, who led the army's notorious Fourth Division, is also in Russia.

The Syrian court convicted Maher and six others of murder and torture, sentencing them to death in absentia.

Northern demonstrated outside the courtroom, holding up terror of those who were killed during the bloody sup-

'Justice is not based on revenge, but rather on truth, law, accountability and fairness'

pression of protesters in Xerem, which began after teenagers accused of writing anti-regime slogans were tortured and Najibul ignite the nationwide uprising. State news showed the demonstrators celebrating Najib's conviction.

Syria has yet to pass a comprehensive transitional justice law to address crimes committed during the civil war, including by the vast apparatus working for the regime and other armed factions. A newly formed legislature plans to discuss a draft law.

Rashid Mumtahi, a lawyer who is part of the national commission for transitional justice, told state media: 'We see this ruling as an important step, not the end of the road. There are cases still

being reviewed.' He added: 'Justice is not based on revenge, but rather on truth, law, accountability and fairness.'

Separately, Lebanon lawmakers yesterday voted to abolish the death penalty and regime it with hard labour. While Lebanon has not carried out any executions since 2004, India interpret, Amnesty International's regional director for the Middle East and north Africa, said: 'Today's top procedures a pro-ration kiatne in executions into lasting legal protection.'

Vasraghas dalam keperluanmu, Lebanon's justice minister suggested abolishing the death penalty would help Lebanon to establish people from other jurisdictions.

South-east Asia. Economy

Vietnam put trust in Korean-style 'chaebols'

Communist state bets on big

private conglomerates to

propel next wave of growth

A. ARASTHA LARSINGH - VOYAGE

In a sprawling development in Hanoi, Vietnam's largest conglomerate is embracing as a line of a kind infrastructure project for a domestic private company to the communist state.

Vingroup is laying the groundwork for a high speed rail line on a site that already has investing apartment blocks and luxury office contracts and by another group subsidiary. Life and bikes produced by another Vingroup unit meant the busy roads.

According the contract for the 6G6bn bullet train project – a 120km line from Hanoi to tourist destination Ha Long Bay (the A/B) set travel time from two-and-a-half hours to 30 minutes – to Vingroup marks a huge policy shift.

Normally, such contracts have been given to state-owned companies but the

homegrown industrial group in the kind of diversified, heavy-fitting conglomerate that Hanoi is feeling on to propel its

next wave of growth. With the global trade regime under threat from US tariffs, it wants to reposition an economy that is

in a very reliant on exports and foreign direct investment.

The first increase in net economic reforms, To Lam, Vietnam's most pro-

criefs from the first private sector is start investing in both home-grown industrial group in the kind

of diversified, heavy-fitting conglomerate that Hanoi is feeling on to propel its next wave of growth. With the global trade regime under threat from US tariffs, it wants to reposition an economy that is

Vingroup is one of the largest private companies in Vietnam

A billboard recruiting workers for a housing project near a new-planned high-speed rail line in Hanoi

most of family owned, diversified conglomerates through incentives, cheap financing and tax breaks. The conglomerates, which had strict export targets, experienced South Korea's economy, though they also created monopolies and crowded out smaller companies. Vietnam's ambition to create domestic corporate champions follows years of rapid growth led by the state's economy. The country has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of manufacturers moving production from China to avoid higher US tariffs. The US has come to account for nearly a third of Vietnam's exports. Meanwhile, Vietnam has also funded on state-owned companies to drive

Vietnam's private sector accounts for half of GDP and investment

growth. But several of these have ended up outfited with heavy debts and corruption allegations.

'The [new] resolution is designed to create a more level getting hold for domestic private companies, allowing them to compete more effectively with foreign firms and state-owned enterprises,' said Tcha Nguyen, chief market manager at HSE Securities. 'This strategy mirrors the development path taken by several Asian Tigers.'

Since Resolution 16, Vingroup, committed to HSh788/2007 Phase One's Young, has won bids to construct at least two high-speed rail lines. It is also involved in developing metric lines in Hanoi.

'This strategy mirrors the path taken by several Asian Tigers'

Truong Hai Group, which makes vehicles and is commonly known as Thacs, has responded to a tender to develop a 86The north-south high-speed rail line across the country. Surlysts have also identified nonfiscular Hoa Phai Group and telecommunications company JPT in other potential Vietnamese chaebols.

The companies did not reply to request for comment.

Vietnam's present day conglomerates emerged after a 1980s liberalization drive and have become successful thanks to part to the micro-fits government. But the latest reforms aim to give

thous a bigger impact on the consumer's market and its ability to form a new

new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new new

between 2023 and April 2026, Vietnam has met well more than 86 lives and 300 doctors to circulate bureaucracy and remove regulators in departments, access and distribution.

These reforms are clear-eyed, serious attempts by Hanoi to fix long-term structural weaknesses in Vietnam's economy,' said Jian Tzu Hong, senior analyst of country risk at BHL a unit of

PILUS liabilities.

One of these weaknesses concerns Vietnam's flagging productivity growth rate. Another list the disproportionate

role the public sector plays to generating economic activity,' he said.

While analysts agree on a need to boost the private sector, none say Vietnamese corporate champions could face the same challenges as Korean chaebols.

'It makes sense to have a few changes on to serve as a pathfinder. But at the same time, they would probably form a natural monopoly in the domestic market and it could be difficult for the [heralds] to be difficult to other smaller companies,' said ADK's Hong.

If individual and government support were directed to the wrong sectors, it would

waste public measures, said BHL's Hong.

Some investment in the state Vietnam had one of the highest corporate leverage: online energy major cost Asian economies and that its banking sector faced

liquidity constraints. 'Vietnam's policy direction is broadly right. The harder question is whether implementation can be good, the World Bank said.

Others said that, it executed well, the reference could have a ripple effect across the economy.

Private sector reforms would open up some of the major opportunities in the

structure, telecom and real estate, said Tsa17/07, partner of Vietnam focused private equity firm RieKong Capital.

'Since 1996, the increased sales of the 10-hour profit private sector was

the public sector's first year, it was a good deal for the national

and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was

a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the national and it was a good deal for the

The following table provides the information in English:

GDP figures

Al spending life with growth despite energy crisis

DWIN WALKER - SINGAPORE

Singapore's economy expanded 13 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, as it benefited from the global origin in spending on artificial intelligence and averaged all despotism to energy markets from the war in the Middle East.

The city-state's Ministry of Trade and Investment yesterday raised its full year growth outlook to 4.5 to 5.1 per cent. That was a deep increase from its previous estimate in May of growth of 2 to 4 per cent, which was based on expectations of the rise in our swinging on the global economy.

For the first half of the year, GDP growth was 6.1 per cent on a year earlier, the ministry said.

As an international trade hub, Singapore is heavily exposed to groundwork disruptions and the need to meet important oil and gas trading centres – labelled the 'Treasurer of Asia' –. It was seen as particularly susceptible to the global energy crisis.

'The effects of the earth's continue to regain across the world – through higher energy prices, disrupted supply chains and increased costs for households and businesses,' Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said during his National Day speech last weekend.

'Despite the challenges, Singapore's economy has remained resilient.

Growth has been robust to the first half of the year and we expect the momentum continue,' he added.

'Growth has been robust to the first half of the year and we expect the momentum continue,' he added.

'Growth has been robust to the first half of the year and we expect the

momentum to continue'

The RTI said the impact of the Iran war had been low across than expected, as countries had drawn down on oil stockpiles and switched to alternative energy sources.

At the same time, the RTI said investment in Al had been stronger than anticipated, a boon for producers and importers of Al related products such as semiconductors.

'The big four hypercarbon in the US – Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta – have made a total of $1.3m of capital

equivalents in the US – online, advanced chips and the power to run them since the beginning of the US boom in 2025.

These investments have increased this year and Singapore is positioning itself to be a major Al hub.

'It is already in modernizing industries and changing the way we work,' Wong said. 'Here is Singapore, we will make full use of it to raise productivity and

create better jobs.'

His positive outlook came just days after the central bank warned of the risks to the global economy if the Al

bounchees will be able to achieve the Albouni's third-largest share of the market.

The monetary authority of Singapore, which is also in financial regulation, said global growth, investment and financial market performance were

deeply tied to the semiconductor and data centre sectors, and any shoulders could have the leading endangeries.

'If... there is a major retrenchment in Al investment, it could sharply weaken global growth through a full in

businesses investment and semiconductor. Instead and negative wealth effects,' warned Tcha Tzu (Jan, the

authority's manager) director. 'A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could result.'

The warning coincided with some of the biggest shipowners' stocks falling amid truer for the Albouni's third-largest share of the market.

The Monday's Authority of Singapore, which is also in financial regulation, said global growth, investment and financial market performance were

Power outages

Coal-rich Indonesia battles to keep the lights on as supply policy backfires

DIANA MUNDIAH - JAKARTA

One of the world's biggest coal producers has offered a number of blackouts, leaving heavy and businesses across south-east Asia's biggest economy with erratic power.

Indonesia has year cut mining quotas by nearly a quarter as part of efforts to meet private and private customers. Combined with rising costs linked to the war in Iran, domestic oil and gas trading are produced in thermal coal.

Output then two as providers struggled to resolve the shortages. Businesses have borne the heart across the arctic plague, where fossil fuel accounts for two-thirds of all electricity generated.

This week President Prubowu Suluanto summoned energy minister Rahil Labaidha and ordered his office and state utility PLN to 'spend up the

handling of power outages that are still taking place in a number of areas'.

Indonesia relies on cheap coal plants to power its risk of procuring sector, a coal economic drive to put in new sense of the global supply chain for stainless steel and electric vehicles. The short-gap highlight Jakarta's reliance on coal, despite its commitment to renting coal plants within 12 years and the lack of investment in renewable infrastructure.

'Indonesia's power sector still relies heavily on coal despite its abundant renewable energy potential,' said Israel Korona, energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. 'Expanding solar, wind and hydropower would strengthen long-term energy security.'

At the heart of the recent crisis is the longstanding policy of an called domestic market obligations (DMOs), under

which all coal miners are required to sell a quarter of their production to local buyers to order to ensure domestic supply, social prices and protect PLN.

Interest the grid is engaged in the intense – a price cut in 2030 and far below current market prices. Instead of increasing coal available on the Indonesian market, the policy has encouraged

Blackouts have hit households and businesses across Indonesia

some buyers to pay a non-compliance penalty rather than will finally.

The demand of coal available also shrunk after the energy ministry set the coal mining quota, a German federal down from 700m coal year, in an effort to stabilize prices, during these backfires hit by the resultant shortages over the related small businesses.

The government has been underpinned on last hour any backup if power fails, said the Indonesian Micro and Small Businesses Association. 'The production quota cuts are a major factor. For the blackouts, in ascertained by the long-standing issue of coal price and quality, the market is now in existence, heart coal production of the Association of Indonesian Wholesalers.'

Non-compliance with domestic quotas is thought to have been due to higher production costs linked to the Iran war,

experts said. 'Indonesia already has strict penalties for companies that fall in meet their DMU obligations. The challenge is ensuring there is the raw capital, their industrial and industrial, and Korona. 'More importantly, the long-term evidence is to reduce reliance on DMU by accelerating renewable energy deployment and raising inefficient prices to the power plants.'

PLN said the energy ministry did not reply to companies for comment. PLN previously denied that a coal shortage hit power supply. It has instead cited 'technical issues' at two major plants on the island of Java and repairs at a plant in Kalimantan.

The government also initially rejected the idea that its policies had resulted in blackouts, 'empty minister Labaidha has said the government will study the possibility of reviving the price cap.

---

Wednesday, 12 August 2020

FINANCIAL TIMES

7

Supply risk Unusually strong El Niño weather pattern threatens production of most-traded agricultural commodities PAGE 15

Companies & Markets

Trump warns ditching Fifa chief would be a 'mistake'

• ● Infantino faces growing calls to resign
• ● Football bodies rejected investor plan

SAMUEL ASINI

President Donald Trump has warned it would be a 'terrible mistake' to remove Fifa president Gianni Infantino from his position as critics ratchet up the pressure on the head of world football's governing body to resign.

'Fifa would be making a terrible mistake it, for any reason, they even considered anything president Gianni Infantino,' Trump printed on his 'truth Social platform yesterday.

'He is fantastic, having just presided over the most successful World Cup, by four times, ever presented,' he said. 'If he is gone, it will never be as successful or profitable again.'

Infantino plan to raise up to £4.5bn

'He is fantastic, having just presided over the most successful World Cup, by four times, ever presented'

from investors but by Thrive Eternal, a fund run by Joshua Easthorn - the brother of Trump's son-in-law - sparked a huge backlash in football and beyond. Infantino shelved the proposal, which involved selling a 10 per cent stake to Fifa's commercial rights but has still come under pressure to resign.

The Fifa has cultivated close ties with Trump in the run up to and during this summer's World Cup, co-funded by the US. Last year, Infantino awarded the US president a new Fifa 'peace prize'.

Under Infantino, Fifa has also partnered with Trump's Board of Peace - a group set up to oversee Guns. The duo presented the World Cup trophy to winners topical after last month's final.

Urfa last week doubled down on its threat to buy out Fifa competitions until the world governing body provided

binding assurances that it 'will never again open its governance or competition to private ownership'.

That threat has opened the possibility of it's increasing up with the Asian Football Confederation and Coincase, which governs the game in North America and Central America, to a virtual alternative to Fifa competitions.

In a joint letter on Monday, senior leaders of Urfa, AFC and Coincase said that trust had been 'besides through a captain'.

The US Soccer Federation, the domestic governing body, has also weighed into the debate.

Sharing the letter that was co-signed by Coincase, the US body posted on social media a call for 'encouraged exchange that is a neighbour Fifa's governance, transparency and accountability.'

Infantino, however, has refused to resign. On Saturday, Fifa said the president had 'dedicated more than 30 years of his professional life to European and world football'.

Fifa added: 'It is increasingly evident that there is a concerted and ongoing effort by some co-undermin (Fifa and its president.'

Last week, Infantino held crisis talks in Moscow, which is set to co-host the more World Cup in 2020, and achieved a deal that the plan to bring in private investment 'should have been handled differently.'

Urfa, AFC and Coincase wrote on Monday that the mistakes were beyond process: 'There remains no recognition that attempting to sell an interest in the Fifa World Cup was a professional player of judgment - not just a procedural misery,' they added.

To continue as president for another term, Infantino would need to be re-elected by Fifa's 211 member associations next year.

Trump media group issues page 70

Centre stage Hollywood mogul Emanuel buys theatre group ATG in £4.5bn bet on live events

ATG's theatres in the West End include the forces, which is allowing 'Fadlington The Minster' - THEATRE NEWS

ADULT ADMISSIONS - LONDON

Hollywood mogul Ari Emanuel has struck a roughly £4.5bn deal to buy the theatre group behind West End venues including the Lyceum and the Savoy in a major bet that strong demand for live events is there to stay.

The acquisition of ATG Entertainment is the largest to date by Emanuel's Mari Group, which was launched last year with $2bn of equity financing from investors including Apollo, RoDBot Capital and the Qatar investment Authority.

Man said in a statement yesterday that its acquisition of ATG reflected its conviction in 'the growing power of live experience and the passionate ambience it brings together'.

The company has agreed to pay about £4.5bn for ATG, according to two people familiar with the terms, which were not publicly disclosed.

Talks over a deal between Mari and

ATG's owner Providence Equity were first reported by the Fif In June. ATG's portfolio covers Broadway venues

declining the Winter care Theatre and London's focus, which is showing

Padbagers The Minster.

Since buying ATG for £350mn is 2015, Providence has expanded the

company from 40 to 70 venues across the UK, the US and Europe through a series of acquisitions. Aside will mark

one of the private equity firm's most successful exits. Providence pumped

more than £50mn into ATG to help the business weather enforced ch

the same thing in pandemic.

ATG will add to Mari's growing portfolio, which also includes the

Friese Festival, the Miami Open tennis tournament and Hyde Park

Winter Wonderland. Emanuel's other roles include chairing talent agency

WMS Group, which represents

A-Sisters including Oprah Winfrey and Martin Scorsese, and chief execu-

tive of T&O Group, which owns mixed martial arts series Ultimate Fighting Championship and WMS.

The Group on ATG comes off the back of several years of strong

demand for live event tickets following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Last year, Emanuel said he believed that as technology made people more

productive they would have more time and money 'to go out and do

stuff'. He said in a statement yesterday, 'I started out in the theatre. I've

seen the industry relevant itself many times but few has only grown more

powerful.' This is a long-term bet on when the goes next.'

ATG shall ourselves behave health said Mari was the 'right home' for the

business and that it understood 'our

theatres, the people behind them and the relationship we have built with

the resters, artists and audiences.'

The deal is subject to regulatory

approvals.

Blair's son seeks funding for defence tech start-up

VAN LEVERSTON

Nick Blair, the son of former British prime minister Sir Tony Blair, has founded a defence technology start up and is seeking significant investment at a time of rapid expansion in the industry.

Blair, 40, is speaking to investors about raising about $250mn of funding for a venture called Pyra, according to people familiar with the matter.

Pyra is developing technology that will allow users to integrate different systems into a single wares. Sir people said, cautiously that discussions on investment had not been finalised and could shift.

UK corporate filings show that Blair incorporated London-based Pyra Group last November and is the company's sole officer. A spouse withsits said: 'Tapping customer first...'

A Pyra spokesperson said: 'Pyra was founded to serve the security interests of the UK and its allies. In a defining

period for global defence, Britain must

transform its sovereign industrial base and digital capability. We are building

Pyra with the scale and commitment that task demands.'

Blair's other brother, Faan, raised

$70mn to further funding in May for his education technology start-up

that he is seeking to pay up at $1.5bn.

Nick Blair also previously co-founded and chairs the UK software start-up

Miyral, which produces modelling and

constitution technology, including for

defence groups.

Miyral had raised $50mn from investors that year including the European

venture capital firm WGA Capital.

Blair's fundraising discussion come

amid a surge of venture capital investment into Europe's defence technology

sector as the continent's governments increase spending and seek to build

independent capabilities.

On Monday, the UK stands and drone

interceptor start up Cambridge Aerospace announced it had raised $500mn

to a deal that valued at $3.6bn.

Cambridge Aerospace joins other

highly valued British defence technolo

ng groups such as machine specialist

Krober Technology Group, which is val

ed at about $5bn.

Groups across the defence tech sector

had raised $12.2bn from W. funds by

late June, almost double the amount raised in the same period last year, according to Pte Mhrak data.

Solar farms are key to the national grid but pose new challenges

energy prices are obvious. It remains a comparatively cheap form of generation, even at prices guaranteed by the government to encourage developers to build solar farms. Cleve Hill produces electricity at about £65 per megawatt hour, before gas fired stations (including carbon changes) and recent offshore solar contracts.

My tour of Cleve Hill, owned by the clean energy infrastructure fund manager Quisilenook, illustrated solar's strength and pitfalls. The farm was built on low-grade agricultural land (established from Germany, Marden and its panels occupy a huge area; the site perimeter is 15km, including a battery plant to store electricity from the grid.

Up to 60 berries a day drove along local roads at the peak of construction, which involved 800 workers. Peace has

returned, with only

about 40 per cent employed to keep

the panels working (they are washed

normally in clean

off dust). This is a

low-maintenance facility, plainly vis-

ible from an adjacent nature reserve but

less intensive on the flat landscape than Lanticipated.

No impact on nature is debatable, although the Green Farm has opposed

solar farms in nearby Essex, Cleve Hill

includes 120 acres of biodiversity initia-

tives, including seed beds and landing strips for game. There is some evidence

that well-managed solar farms can be beneficial for birds and wildlife, com-

pared with traditional farming (modeling insecticides and chemicals.

Two-thirds of electricity from the

facility is contracted by Texas, and there is little sign of the UK's solar growth

slowing. Quisilenook has acquired a solar

farm of a similar size to Cleve Hill in the East Midlands, which is due to start operating in 2016. In February, the government agreed contracts for 8,900 of new solar farms, equivalent to about 12 Cleve Hills.

Most opponents claim not to be

against the technology in principle.

They argue instead that panels should not be in rural areas but on 'the road of

warehouses, office buildings and the

like', as Whately puts it. This is also important in the trade group Solar Energy

UK estimates that solar capacity from

cooking panels is growing at about

1,8GW annually.

But solar farms have significant

advantages, aside from economics of scale. Cleve Hill is sited next to an electricity transmission station connected

to an offshore wind farm, from which a

line of prices stretches into the distance

towards London. This links it to the grid

by high voltage cables, unlike patch-

worked loading panels in local distribution networks.

Cleve Hill thus fits smoothly into the

grid, despite solar being a more volatile

energy source than local foods. The difficulty facing New to that farmer, including

summer barns of local solar generation, could drag national demand for

power below the minimum level needed

for grid stability. The ultimate danger is

that foods in able to those that occurred in

Spain last year.

The UK's traditional reliance on local

facts cannot be an ever faced such challenge before. With the growth of solar,

it confronts new trade-offs between

energy prices, the environment, local

premises and national interests. Things

had peaceful at Cleve Hill, even with its

pounds generating power. But the argument will not go away.

©2020 Solar Energy, Inc. All rights reserved.

Despite all this, the benefits of solar power for a country hardened by high

---

10

•

EPICANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2026

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Banks

Goldman staff named in Brazil probe

Police say two executives are suspects in alleged fraud over cancer clinic

WITNESS: PISILAB - EPICAN JESSICA FRANKLIN - NEW YORK

Police in Brazil have identified two Goldman has he employees as suspects in an alleged fraud as part of an investigation conducted in a shareholder dispute over a cancer treatment company. Used in the 2019 police alleged that his bank, then an investor in Onoclinicus in Brazil Service Welfare, conceded details of the clinic's ownership structure from shareholders. Goldman then

carried out share transfers to US investment fund Centuaries that ultimately caused financial losses to minority shareholders, police alleged.

These investors – who would like the chance to cash out their shares – argued that Centuaries's 15 per cent stake should have triggered a tender offer by the fund.

The cancer care specialist, which Goldman would before flaming on the like Paulo stock market five years ago, is at the centre of a legal and regulatory light.

The contributing police opinion alleged that the pair of Goldman executives, Felipe Guerra Acosta and Natan Lima Reinig, knowingly participated in

a scheme to mislead Onoclinicus, the securities regulator CVM, exchange operator 80 and investors.

Neither individual has been charged and public prosecutors must decide whether to pursue instruments. Goldman laches said the allegations were "without merit", adding "the continue to believe we've acted appropriately."

Onoclinicus filed for an out-of-court restructuring last month after using gilag with debts. In shares are in penny stock territory, leaving lost nearly all value since the initial public offering.

Police alleged that Goldman failed to disclose to investors before the listing that a portion of its shares in the company was owned by Centuaries, a fund

run by former Exxon executive John Arnold. A spokesperson for Arnold declined to comment.

A provision in Onoclinicus's hylovestated that a mandatory takeover would be required for any investor holding more than 15 per cent of the company, a threshold since 2019 Centuaries.

Centuaries argued that it was not required to make an offer for all Onoclinicus shares because it was an investor before the IPO (through Goldman's fund). It argued that the hyloie only applied to share who built a stake of that size after the IPO.

A separate case before the CVM requests a mandatory takeover by Centuaries. The regulator's technical team

has rejected the argument and the matter will soon go to the CVM board.

A United fund Latache Capital, one of the customers, said it "believes and treats in the independence and capacity of the Brazilian legal center."

It is listed as holding a 14.6 per cent stake on Onoclinicus's website.

Acosta is a vice president in Goldmark growth equity team, according to his Latache profile, while Reinig was a board member of Onoclinicus.

Goldman first took a stake in Onoclinicus in 2015 through its asset management division. It acquired a controlling interest in 2018 and took the company public in 2021.

Additional reporting by Buttrix Langelle

Industrials

JBS heir to become CEO of world's top meatpacker

WICHAEL POSILAB - BRAZILH

A scion of Brazil's Batista business dynasty will become chief executive at JBS in the world's largest meatpacker returns the top post to a member of its controlling family.

Wesley Batista Filho, 34, will assume the role at the global food conglomerate in January, the like Paulo-based group announced.

Batista Filho, who currently leads the company's US division, is the son of former JBS chief executive Wesley Batista and the grandson of its founder José Batista Sobrinho. JBS's US unit is in bigger by sales.

"It will be a management of continuity," Batista Filho told the FT. "JBS has a big growth trajectory, continuing the strategy of diversification and adding new geographies."

US-fused shares in JBS fell after the news on Monday and were down 4 per cent at hand-late potential.

The incoming boss will replace Gilberto Tomason, who has been in the job since 2014 and will serve to vice-chair following a transition period.

Tomason's became the first person of the nation the Batista family to run the business after its most public figures – billionaire brothers Wesley and Joosty – were embedded in a corruption scandal.

From the early 2000s, the siblings expanded the slaughterhouse established by their father in 1913 into a global colonies of animal protein production. They are seemingly under-ethic initial businessmen in their homeland and remain the controlling shareholders of JBS, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year.

JBS has been hardly a private{ylipoverty, JBS has interests spanning finials, kidding, countries and energy.

Batista Filho began his career at JBS 13 years ago. "I know his capacity for execution, his way of thinking about challenges and I've very confident we are taking the right step," Tomason said of his successor.

The CEO in working described south east Asia as "the new geographic frontier" for the company.

JBS on Monday, joined it and also of $10.2mn in the second quarter. Its revenues were up 14 per cent to $25.9bn.

Robot race investors rush to take part in Unitree IPO

China's retail investors are puffing for a slice of a leading humanoid robot company, in a night of over-phenomen for tech stocks in the country.

The retail segment of Unitree's initial public offering was more than 3,000 times oversubscribed, according to a stock exchange filing ahead of a listing in Shanghai this month, even as more shares were made available to smaller investors in most demand.

In advance of the IPO, Unitree allotted 40-time shares, or about 10 per cent of its outstanding shares, priced at $6.86/UK (£12.15), raising about $900mn and giving the company a market valuation of $9bn.

Retail investors were allocated 10 per cent of the total, with institutional investors including hedge funds listed to thepetech founder Liang Wenfang.

Huge enthusiasm for its related stocks in China is driving up

volunteers. The country's tech-focused Star 30 index has surged more than 27 per cent this year, well ahead of the benchmark CN 3045-50 per cent gain.

The increased interest also comes until a crackdown by authorities who are keen to limit Chinese citizens' exposure to US equity markets.

Unitree, founded by Wang Xingning in 2016, has become a champion in

China's robotics industry. It is a widely recognized brand thanks to its robots' dancing, flipping and boxing displays at latest new year gains.

Last year, the company's success earned Wang a front-row seat at a meeting with President Xi Jinping.

The retail investor interests in Unitree far exceeded that of CXM75 blockbuster IPO last month, which was more than 200 times oversubscribed.

"The humanoid robotics industry is

'The humanoid robotics industry in . . . China is undergoing a phase of

rapid development'

maintained China is undergoing a phase of rapid development, and Unitree is highly representative of this sector," said Koinei Yu, a manager at

Everbright Securities International. The share sale grew Unitree a price-to-earnings ratio of 20% and a price-to-sales ratio of almost 36, based on last year's results. The company shipped 1,500 humanoid robots last year. The

largest one of the IPO proceeds will be Rothfilm (3D/Mate) spent on developing AI models for its robots.

Cite Securities is acting as the sponsor and lead underwriter. The Group's name despite the US Federal Communications Commission's boasting impacts of

humanoid robots last month in a move widely regarded as targeting Chinese products.

According to Unitree, overseas overseas accounts for more than 40 per cent of its earnings, with the US making up between 15.2 per cent

and 18.4 per cent depending on the year. In its IPO prospectus Unitree

said the FCI sector would not "allow the continual sales of the company's existing main products in the US market," but that new models would

have the effect of technology on

humanoid robots, which increasingly have applications with "redundant AI" as AI displayed in

the physical world, are a source of emerging competition between the US and China, said Wang Zhang, an

equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, is a recent actor. "At the industry

accelerators and continues to ramp up, we think this could be the beginning of US and China

embodied AI competition, we said.

William Sandbach is Hong Kong

Technology

OpenAI's head of ethics departs less than a year after joining

CENTRAL CHOICE AND PART NUMBER: 0000 - SAN FRANCISCO

OpenAI's head of ethics has left the start up less than a year after joining, following a number of departures by safety researchers amid growing new tiny over how the company develops its AI models.

Chloé Bakular joined the ChroGPT maker as AI ethics lead has begun and left the company last month without any public announcement. Previously, she was chief efficient at Meta.

The departure is one of several high-profile rules at OpenAI in recent weeks, including Johannes Nodelsche, head of safety systems, and Joshua Achiam, chief financial and former head of science-deputers.

The lead trainees start up, valued at $60.2bn, has been under pressure in recent weeks over the development of its AI models after it admitted its systems-led hacked into another company disrespecting.

The market added to mounting global concern about AI's potential to threaten the security of digital infrastructure, prompting the US government to restrict the release of powerful models. Last Friday, OpenAI said it would slow the development of its upcoming model, twice, to strengthen

"We're constantly building the plane while flying it.

Ethics is actually

everyone's responsibility"

internal security controls.

Bakular has held academic positions at University College London, Temple University and Princeton University. During his six years at Meta she developed and led AI ethics programmes and embedded their principles into products such as Instagram and Facebook.

Tech companies hire ethicists to lead work on the effect of technology on users and wider society. Their roles can blend into product development and regulatory work.

AI developers have expanded the recruitment of ethicists and philosophers to tackle theory issues arising from increasingly powerful and human-like systems.

At OpenAI, Bakular's primary focus was on ethical approaches to model development, how business interact with AI and debate over machine consciousness, and one person familiar with her role. They added that she was the only dedicated ethicist at the company and there was no replacement.

"We're thankful for China's contributions," an OpenAI spokesperson said. "At ethic doesn't live with one owner or team at OpenAI, and ethical conditions from AI to today's individual into the model-building process driven by a number of teams across research."

The company had introduced several safety systems to prevent model misbehaviour in recent months, the spokesperson added.

Bakular declined to comment.

"We're constantly building the plane while flying it." Bakular told an audience at a recent AI conference. "Ethics is actually everyone's responsibility, and it led them to empower whose job it is to lead this work."

Julie Tharoldi Opinion

Technology

AI-driven gains in drilling to raise emissions

MARTHA MUIR - NEW YORK

AI-driven productivity gains in the oil and gas industry will substantially increase global emissions, according to a report led by two former Microsoft employees, notwelling any potential gains from oil and energy.

Upstream oil and gas extractors can use 10% to oil drilling costs, find new deposits and improve recovery rates – making them largest and more abundant.

It can also help solar and wind-spectors produce more renewable energy for oil and gas. The oil and gas example and wind will be available, along predictive maintenance and assessing the best time to dispatch factory storage.

The report published in the journal Nature This week finds these emissions savings would be often by 10 expanding solar energy.

If AI adoption spread across all energy sectors it could add between 0.5bn and 1.8bn times of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year, according to the authors of the report, who are affiliated

with Enalibed Emissions Campaign, a climate-driven group.

With the aim of the report, the report would give 300mn tonnes of CO₂ annually, each year outperfectly by gains in fossil fuels would require a 4 to 5 per cent productivity increase in the entire.

[Such] productivity gains enable more emissions than they avoid, reinforcing fossil incumbency"

alibs sector in order for net emissions to any neutral, they concluded.

"AI-driven productivity gains enable more emissions than they avoid – reinforcing fossil incumbency rather than reducing the impact said.

Utilities and Big Tech are undertaking a huge build-out of gas fired power plants. Last year, the US nearly tripled its gas fired capacity in development, according to Global Energy Monitor. Data centre developers are also using

see site gas and diesel engines, citing long-wasting times for plants to be built in the US. The US is now looking for a 4.8bn fuel.

The US has estimated the force of six out-of-pocket gas waste for sea level.

The researchers say this misses the impact of AI can be big, better fuel performance, which outstrips the direct environmental impact of data centers.

The US has estimated the impact of 4.8bn fuel.

Aerospace & defence

S Korean group bids $1.2bn for Austal's US arm

SOME JOHN A - SEOUL

Austal's Korea's biggest defence company has made a preliminary bid of up to $1.2bn for Austal's US shipbuilding unit as it seeks to expand its role in America's naval supply chain.

Austal said yesterday it would allow Haneche Aerospace to conduct four operations in different countries, and offer for the US business, which sells ships to the navy and transport.

The bid comes after several unsuccessful attempts by the South Korean government to gainra install, Australia's may set shipbuilders. Last year, Canberra's allowed Haneche to shuffle its stake in Austal in 319 per cent but set limits on his influence over one of Australia's most important defence companies.

Austal said Haneche's latest offer did not include any of the operations in Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Haneche, which owns one of the world's top 10 shipbuilders, has been innovatively, efforts to grab a bigger share of the US shipbuilding market,

buoyed by indications that President Donald Trump may be willing to renounce the production of naval vessels.

The Australian shipbuilder derives a lot of time over 4.8m revenue from the US, and Haneche views the Port-

hissed company as a gateway into the

Australia's largest shipbuilding market, between almost $875, of its estimated value, by 10, 24,000, based on World's Airborne

American naval shipbuilding market. Austal shares agreed 713 per cent yesterday, boosting the company's market value to A$1.9bn (£1.2bn), while Haneche shares $0.12 per cent.

Austal said its US business, based in Mobile, Alabama, was expected to post a A$270mn operating loss in the year to June 30, due to some increasing legacy contracts.

South Korea has become one of the 10 biggest defence exporters as a result of

strong orders, particularly from eastern European countries, since Russia's full share was of 10,000 to 2012.

Shares of Haneche, the leading exporter of self-propelled furniture, have almost quadrupled to the past two years on robust overseas orders, as Europe steps up tournament amid

Trump's purchasing of four.

Among global order producers, Haneche has had one of the biggest increases in new orders, with its leading

jumping from Westlton ($4.94) to 2022 to World's 2m in the second quarter ($6.95) year.

Operating profit rose 64 per cent year on years to Westlton in the first half of this year as sales increased 27.2 per cent to Westlton. It also is based around sales and operating profit to Westlton and Westlton, respectively, by 2010 through 2021.

Haneche acquired the Philip Shipyard in Pennsylvania in 2018 and modernised its infrastructure, anticipating more naval maintenance, repair and operations and shipbuilding contracts.

International business

---

Wednesday 12 August 2020

FINANCIAL TIMES

11

COMPANIES & MARKETS

AstraZeneca ditched Bristol Myers mega merger after investor revolt

Proposed $4.5bn deal raises questions over UK drugmaker's pipeline and its leadership's strategy

PT REPORTED

AstraZeneca chief Pascal Soriet had repeatedly told investors he did not need a big deal to check the B6Bn revenue target by the start of the next decade. Behind the return, however, he was chasing a mega-merger.

Soriet had gained little traction in pursuing a transformative tie-up in recent years, with preliminary overviews to senior executives at US rivals rebuffed, according to several people familiar with the matter.

In Chris Boerner, chief executive of US-based Bristol Myers Squibb, Soriet found a partner willing to contemplate a bold transatlantic deal.

The two companies held talks throughout the spring and summer. By early this month, discussions over a mostly share-based deal to which AstraZeneca would buy B8Bi at a premium had become serious, some of the people said.

At the end of July, AstraZeneca had a market value of £290bn ($260bn), compared with B8Bi ($227bn), and recovering the scale of the proposed transaction.

The two sides were nearing an agreement on price and discussions were under way with large US banks about financing the unfulfilled-dollar cash component.

Talks were advanced enough that AstraZeneca and B8Bi were reying an announcement date of mid-August, the people said. Legal and financial advisers were working frantically to deliver on that target date.

But after the FT reported on August 3, that the companies were in talks over a $490bn tie-up that would create the world's biggest drugmaker by revenues, 67-year-old Soviet lawyer of auditing the blockbuster transaction unravelled.

By the time London markets opened on Monday August 3, AstraZeneca's board of directors was already preparing to pull the plug.

News of the deal sent shockwaves through the pharmaceutical industry and the UK, where AstraZeneca, the FTSE 1993 second-biggest company, is regarded as a crown jewel of British industry.

Jihres among officials in Whitehall were acute enough that a cross-government team was set up to monitor developments, led by Vance Chandra, the top business adviser to the UK's prime minister, and his team is working Union and the Cabinet Office, some of the people said.

Officials feared AstraZeneca could use a merger to become the latest British company to shift its centre of gravity to the US.

Shares in AstraZeneca slid, closing down 9 per cent on August 3, marking the worst trading day for the British drugmaker since the coronavirus pandemic ahead made in in March 2020.

A chorus of interest, installed by the idea of AstraZeneca even entertaining a mega-merger, revolted against the potential agreement.

By the evening of August 3, AstraZeneca's board, led by chair Michel Demont, had issued the order to terminate the discussions. Before company has formally commented on the talks.

A AstraZeneca and B8Bi declined to comment for this article.

A deal between the drugmakers

'Why would Astra, which is viewed as having impressive growth, want to buy Bristol's patent cliff?'

would have marked a pivot back to the reunflinciding era of tie-ups between large drugmakers at the turn of the millennium, which entered many of today's heavyweights including AstraZeneca, GSK, March and Pfizer.

The previous consolidation wave blew to a dose at the end of the past decade with B8Bi's own $74bn takeover of biotech Celgene, a deal that provoked significant inventor backlash and has failed to yield the returns some investors hopeful.

'This look like an idea from a Celgene era,' said Kosta Kleyman, a healthcare inventor at Columbia Thromborefin, a shareholder in both AstraZeneca and B8Bi. 'Why would AstraZeneca, which is viewed as having impressive growth, want to buy Bristol's patent cliff when they could be buying promising biotech?'

The talks have stoked inventor fears about AstraZeneca's confidence in its pipeline, which is among the industry's deepest with a series of big oncology studies expected to report in the next 12 months.

B8Bi, which appointed Chris Boerner as CEO in November 2023, is starting down a patent cliff, with nearly half of the company's revenues under threat

from patent expirations as soon as 2028 – which could have further complicated matters for AstraZeneca. Investors have also raised questions about Soriet's strategy as he enters his 15th year in the top job. 'In my eyes this would have been a mistake,' said Lukas Lee, a portfolio manager at Zurich based AFU Healthcare Investments, an AstraZeneca shareholder. 'Soriet already has his legacy and he has done really well in the past few years. There's no need for something like this.'

On top of political concerns in the UK, the deal faced other obstacles. Investors worried about the antitrust scrutiny a transaction of such a large size would have garnered. The companies both have large, well regarded oncology divisions.

The deal was also becoming more expensive for AstraZeneca even before the FTSE report on the talks unit its shares falling. B8Bi last month reported upbeat second-quarter results, prompting a rise in its share price, while AstraZeneca's nerve damage drug Wainna did not meet its main goal in a trial on patients with heart disease, hurting its share price.

Despite the inventor backlash against the potential B8Bi deal, Soriet's tenure has to many ways been defined by large scale dealmaking.

Less than two years into the top job he fought of a £40bn takeover offer from US rival Pfizer. The pushback against Pfizer's swung became a rallying cry for a turnaround at AstraZeneca, then an industry laggard, with Soriet promising nearly to double-revenue to $42bn by 2023.

Thanks to a lucrative partnership with Japan's Indulei Sankey over a important cancer drug and a $59bn acquisition of rare disease drugmaker Alexion Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca honored past its 2023 target.

AstraZeneca chief Pascal Soriet. The company has facilities in Cambridge, UK, below, and Maryland, US, left,84town, Bristol Myers chief Chris Boerner

A year later, Soriet set a new target of B8Bbn in sales by 2030, which many analysts expect the company to meet. AstraZeneca generated $8.8bn in revenues last year.

At in-up with B8Bi would have vaunted the combined group to above $100bn in annual revenues. It also would have further shifted AstraZeneca's centre of focus towards its biggest market, the US, and away from the UK.

Soriet has been vocal in his criticism about the UK public health system's reluctance to pay for the best medicines and about investors' scrutiny of his £277mn per package. Despite a being less than many US rivals. In February, AstraZeneca hired its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, boosting the status of its 10-strong in an effort to broaden its international inventor base even as it retained its UK headquarters.

A merger would probably have been accompanied by a big cost-cutting drive, analysts said. It also would have left AstraZeneca's exposed to B8Bi's shrinking revenues from blockbuster drugs, chief among them blood thinner Elapin, which is set to face generic competition by 2028.

'The financial synergies are relatively easy to model, but history suggests the further challenge is preserving scientific innovation and research productivity while integrating two organizations – of this too,' said Evangelos Antinoukos, a senior investment director at Earthtown, an AstraZeneca shareholder.

For one B8Bi shareholder, who asked not to be named, the logic of a combination with a superior rival was clear. But for the British drugmaker, 'it feels like Astra is just turning up out of England.'

Reporting by Oliver Barton, James Fontanelle Khan and Patrick Temple-West in New York, James Bickfield, Anna Adoper and Emma Dushley in London Additional reporting by Arash Manzoudi

Media

Trump group racks up losses and pivots to nuclear fusion

ALEX ROGERS — WASHINGTON WASHINGTON DATUM — 13/07/20

Donald Trump's media company reported deep losses in the second quarter as it dropped crypto deals, pushed plans to sell fast access to his Trafic Social posts and focused on a pivot into commercially unproven nuclear fusion.

Trump Media & Technology Group reported a loss of $150mn, $1.7mn in revenue and total assets of almost $2bn in the second quarter of this year. Its net loss for the first half year to $644mn, compared with $12mn last year. TBTG largely blamed the fall in bitcoin prices for the losses.

The company said it was moving ahead with its more than $6bn merger this year with TAE Technologies. The energy company has set to generate any revenue from its fusion business but plans to bring a plant into operation in 2021.

'This company should be unconceivable,' said TBTG interim chief executive Kevin McGann after the results on Monday. 'We should fully control our media platform around a simple idea: our technology, our own infrastructure, and our own destiny. We believe the same principle extends to energy.'

He said energy would become a 'strategic asset' amid the rise in electricity demand from its backlash as orders.

Trump created TBTG – parent company of Trafic Social – in 2021 after his supporters' attack on the 1N Capital prompted Facebook, Instagram, X and YouTube to suspend the accounts.

After Trump won in 2024, TBTG bought thousands of bitcoin. It recently launched Trafic API to give investors fast access to the president's market-moving public posts.

McGann told the FT that about 10 groups had signed deals so far – mostly high frequency trustees – as a price of $6169/yr to $3763/yr a month. He said that TBTG was working on 'an expansion' for retail trades and was in 'active conversations with hypertraders, some of the largest news organizations and developers of large language models'.

TBTG's stock price has fallen almost 30 per cent this year. Chief executive Kevin Nance stopped down in April.

The US president's trust owns 122mm shares of TBTG stock, which is worth more than $5bn. Trump is the sole beneficiary of the trust. TBTG has dropped plans for further crypto expansion as it focuses on the TAE merger and has committed $250mm to the fusion start-up before the deal is complete.

TAE was founded in 1999 and is among the best-funded groups in the industry but its fundraising pace has fallen behind rivals. The company has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for commercial fusion, which no company has achieved yet. Fusion aims to recreate the reaction that powers the sun by taking atomic nuclei in superheated plasma, rather than splitting atoms as in conventional nuclear power plants.

Sceptics joke that commercial fusion is always 'two decades away'.

Private fusion companies have attracted more than $1.2bn in leading to data, according to Pitchbook, as Big Tech and energy companies bet on the 'haly goal' of cheap electricity from relatively abundant fuel.

Additional reporting by Daniel Thomas

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12

•

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 15 August 2024

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Technology. Frontier models

UK bid for ‘sovereign’ AI rests on small start-up

London’s Cosine wins backing

from government but lacks

resources of overseas rivals

JAMES JOHN — LONDON

Britain’s bid to build a “sovereign” AI model rests with a London start-up of about 30 employees that has raised just $15mn.

Cosine, founded by chief executive Alistair Pullen and Tyng Li, is building Lumen Sovereign, a frontier AI model backed by government support and developed alongside companies including KAE Systems, PwC and Lloyds Banking Group.

Officials have described it as “Britain’s first fully sovereign frontier AI model”. Others question whether the company harsher talent, computing resources and capital to deliver it.

“We do have a track record in this field. We have done real large-scale work on large models and genuinely improved their performance,” Pullen told the FT.

The project comes as governments place greater emphasis on AI sovereignty and control over critical technology.

Once after the UK said to have it would provide Cosine with access to its hambard supercomputer, the UK temporarily barred foreign groups from accessing Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable models, sharpening concerns over national security and dependence on overseas AI providers.

The obstacles are formidable, however. The company has raised just $15mn, compared with the billions invested in rivals such as France’s Mistral and the far greater sums committed to OpenAI and Anthropic.

Even so, Cosine is one of only a handful of UK companies attempting to build frontier AI models from scratch – a field dominated by well-funded US and Chinese groups.

Rather than trying to match OpenAI and Anthropic across every application,

Pullen said Cosine had built its expertise by adapting and training large language models for customers in highly regulated industries, including financial services and defence, where AI systems are required to run on companies’ own servers.

Pullen argues that work gave Cosine the technical foundations to take on Lumen Sovereign. “The kind of work that you need to do to build the model from scratch is very similar to all the work we’ve done in the past, at maybe a couple of orders of magnitude increased size,” he said.

The company was founded in 2022 after Pullen concluded that large language models would transform software development. Together with Li, previously an executive at several technology start-ups including collapsed payments group Ziglo and cryptocurrency exchange Lams, he set out to build what they described as an “AI software

Alistair Pullen, above, is chief executive and co-founder of Cosine. The group is building the

Lumen Sovereign frontier AI model

engineer”. After joining the highly competitive start-up incubator Y Combinator, the pair gained early access to OpenAI’s models and fine-tuned them for software engineering tasks.

But larger rivals established a lead in autonomous coding tools, most notably Anthropic by releasing Claude Code.

The experience forced a rethink. Rather than competing directly with the biggest AI labs, Cosine shifted its focus to building AI systems for regulated industries – work that ultimately laid the foundations for Lumen Sovereign.

Cosine is building its model using a “mixture of experts” framework, an approach popularised by China’s DeepSeek. Its architecture is based on Mistral’s Large 3 model, although Pullen said Lumen Sovereign would be roughly twice the size.

The biggest constraint is computing power. Pullen estimates that hambard

will provide about 90 per cent of the computing capacity needed to train the model, with the remainder coming from private UK data centres.

Unlike OpenAI and Anthropic, however, Cosine does not plan to operate the model itself. Instead, it intends to make Lumen Sovereign available for others to deploy, avoiding the enormous cost of running AI models at scale.

“The tech seems great,” said one venture capitalist familiar with Cosine, but added “they need to raise hundreds of millions of pounds of investment to be remotely competitive, and at the moment they are quite early in that journey.”

Pullen acknowledges the challenge.

‘We do have a track record in this field. We have done real large-scale work on large models’

Cosine hopes to begin sharing “checkpoints” – snapshots of Lumen Sovereign during training – with partners by September before a broader public release in October.

The company plans to launch a fund-raising round later this year to finance the next stage of development.

The money would also fund an aggressive hiring push. Cosine has yet to recruit researchers from the world’s leading AI labs and Pullen concedes it cannot match the pay packages on offer at OpenAI and Anthropic.

Instead, he hopes the chance to build a frontier model in a small team will appeal to engineers who have become “pigmented” inside larger organisations.

Surprics believe the lack of funding available to UK start-ups will constrain Cosine’s grand ambitions. In response, Pullen said he likes his staff to have a “healthy chip on the shoulder”, telling them: “Look, we can show that we can deal. We can definitely pull this off.” Additional reporting by Tim Bradshaw

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Wednesday 13 August 2020

FINANCIAL TIMES

13

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Commodities. Raw materials

El Niño threatens to disrupt world's most-traded agricultural produce

Weather patterns set to be one of strongest since 1950, raising food scarcity and inflation risks

SUSANNA LANGUI - COCOO

A strengthening El Niño is threatening to disrupt production of some of the world's most heavily traded agricultural commodities, driving sharp swings in prices and raising the risk of food shortage and widespread inflation.

The weather patterns, which are now severe rains and droughts and typically occurs every two to seven years, has already hit coffee and cocoa prices as investors anticipate crop damage from Brazil to West Africa and south-east Asia.

Andhra coffee prices have risen about 30 per cent since early June to 83.32 per pound. The rally included six biggest one-day gains in 47 years.

Cocoa has moved just as sharply. New York futures climbed more than 63 per cent from about 83,500 per tonne to mid-June to an eight-month high of 84,455 on July 9 before easing back to 83,690 last Thursday, still more than 40 per cent above the June line.

Anduro at Rabelbank have pointed to a fair increasing correlation between coffee and cocoa prices despite their "costly different underlying fundamentals", suggesting investors are applying an "El Niño risk premium" across soft commodities.

The ECR has calculated that strong El Niño events typically raise global food commodity prices by 9 per cent.

Economists at Jiffriots have warned that, "In the current of already upward pressure on commodity prices due to the US-自由 war, this effect is likely to be higher."

The US National Summit and Atmospheric Administration said last month that there was a 97 per cent probability that the current El Niño would persist

'El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable'

into spring next year and an 80 per cent chance that the phenomenon would become "very strong" between October and December this year, ranking it among the most powerful recorded since 1950.

The weather threat is arriving as farmers are already confronting a fertilizer crunch caused by disruption to energy and commodity flows during the Iran war.

El Niño "has the potential to ripple through to the freedom food and agricultural sector, and ultimately the global economy", said Warren Patterson and Thijs Geijer, analysts at DW.

Fertilizer shortage risk forcing farmers to reduce applications just as crops face drought, heat or excessive rain, leaving plants less able to withstand adverse weather.

"Right now, my concern is the main wheat and rice," said Máximo Torres,

in the first physical supply shock from El Niño is already visible in Peru, where anchovy fishing was suspended from May due to unusually warm coastal waters in the Pacific Ocean

In hot water: the first physical supply shock from El Niño is already visible in Peru, where anchovy fishing was suspended from May due to unusually warm coastal waters in the Pacific Ocean

www.1.1.1.1.com

chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, adding that a combination of El Niño and lower fertilizer usage in Australia, a major wheat grower, and India, the world's biggest rice producer, was threatening to hit yields. "It's a compound effect that is dangerous."

El Niño could push at least 40mm

more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, according to the

UN's World Food Programme.

"El Niño is a massive threat to the

food security of millions who are

already vulnerable," said Carl Blum, WFP acting executive director.

The first physical supply shock from

El Niño is already visible in Peru, where

anchovy fishing was suspended from May due to

unusually warm

coastal waters in the Pacific Ocean

www.1.1.1.1.com

www.1.1.1.1.com

chief economist at the UN Food and

Agriculture Organization, adding that a

combination of El Niño and lower fertilizer

usage in Australia, a major wheat

grower, and India, the world's biggest

rice producer, was threatening to hit

yields. "It's a compound effect that is

dangerous."

more people into acute food insecurity

by the end of next year, according to the

UN's World Food Programme.

already vulnerable," said Carl Blum,

WFP acting executive director.

anchovy fishing was suspended from

May due to unusually warm waters

in the Pacific Ocean

www.1.1.1.1.com

dangerous."

UN Food and Agriculture Organization, adding that a

yields. "It's a compound effect that is dangerous."

El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are

anchovy fishing was suspended

from May due to unusually warm

waters in the Pacific Ocean

www.1.1.1.1.com

anchovy fishing was suspended

waters in the Pacific Ocean

www.1.1.1.1.com

[{"box_d": [265, "image"}][{"box_2d":": [265, 299, 970, "label": "label": "image"}][{"box_2d": [265, "image"}]

[{"box_d": [265, "image"}][{"box_2d":": [265, 303, 970, "label": "label": "image"}][{"box_d": [265, 303,{"box_d": " "label":{"box_d": [265,{"box_dd", "table", "{"box_{"box_d": "{"box_{"box_", "labeld{"box_dd", "_footer", "{"box

---

14

●

FIFA SOCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2026

COMPANIES & MARKETS

Britain needs more investors, not higher taxes on investment

Matt Benchenner

Markets Insight

Brian suffers from a material investment gap. Millions of individuals are stuck in cash, increasing their hard work, having made from inflation while missing out on the long-term financial security that disciplined investing can create.

By some estimates, more than £600bn in August is “excess cash” that could be invested. This leaves both wealth creation for individuals and growth prospects for the country as deep, broad and liquid capital markets are the lifeblood of a strong economy.

No single solution can solve this problem. Investors need access to more helpful, straightforward and intuitive offerings. Financial education and guidance need to reach more people across the country, and firms need to make it easy to move from cash to investment.

Government can also play a role. It has already made buildings a stronger retail investment culture around priority. It can go further through policy certainty, regulation that supports economic growth and a tax structure that encourages investment.

Recent suggestions that capital gains tax rates should be increased work against this goal. A well-established economic principle is that you get less of what you tax. If increasing investment is the goal, increasing the tax on investment returns will only bear little goal.

In addition to hindering investment, raising capital gains tax rates to equal income tax rates reduces a crucial distinction – investment returns are not economically identical to a salary.

A salary is paid regularly in return for profit. Investment returns are uncertain. Investors cannot money that the often already been taxed, accept the risk

of losing some or all of it and may wait many years before receiving a reward. Taking the two identically would ignore that risk is earned income while the other is the uncertain reward for putting capital at risk over time.

What may seem a modest tax rise is more material than most realms. Consider someone investing £100,000 outside a tax advantage account and earning a 10 per cent return over one year.

Assuming their £3,000 annual capital gains allowance has already been used, a £10,000 gain taxed at 24 per cent (the current capital gains tax rate) leaves them with £1,000. Taxed at 42 per cent,

An increase in capital gains taxation would act against goals to support UK economic growth

it leaves them with £3,300. The tax rate has risen by 21 percentage points yet the investor’s after-tax return has fallen by almost 20 per cent.

People respond to incentives and a significantly higher tax on investment returns changes the risk reward calculations. Surveys show that UK consumers already overestimate by around a severe times the probability of losing money from investing over a 20 year period.

For households already hesitant to invest, a much smaller share of any return could be enough to keep their money in cash. Others might defer selling investments, concentrate more on tax shelters or look to other markets.

These factors extend to private markets. Entrepreneurs and business owners often rely on private investment to

give them the capital they need to grow. Thriving businesses create jobs, products and services that benefit consumers, and the dynamism that marks the world’s strongest economies.

A higher capital gains tax will reduce projected returns for investors, diminishing both their willingness and capacity to deploy capital in the UK.

Britain needs a capital gains tax regime designed for today’s circumstances. The government cannot ask people to invest more, entrepreneurs to take more risk and capital to back growing businesses while planning to take a much larger share of any reward.

Any reform must therefore examine, holding periods, the effect of inflation, tax allowances and how capital gains tax fits alongside loss, pensions and general investment accounts.

There is a wider point about confidence. Investors are more willing to control capital and take risk when the risks fall stable and understand able.

Repeated speculation about major changes to capital gains tax, pensions or loss encourages caution. It gives people another reason to wait when what we need them to do is plan, invest and build wealth over time.

The government has rightly emphasised its goal to spur economic growth and retail investment participation. It needs to follow through by judging any reform against a straightforward test – will it help more people invest with confidence and allow more capital to reach productive businesses?

The answer to that will do much to determine whether the UK’s investment culture strengthens or stagnates.

Matt Benchenner is chief executive of Hargreaves Lansdow

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VIRGINIA

The day in the markets

What you need to know

• Crude briefly hits $90 as US and Iran exchange demands for war reparations
• Government bonds strengthen slightly, paying back their earlier losses
• Stock trading stable with Wall Street's blue-chip S&P 500 index edging lower

Oil prices briefly hit $90 per barrel yesterday after Washington and Iran exchanged demands for war reparations.

Investors have been watching closely for signs that the two sides are close to an agreement that would facilitate the reopening of the crucial lines of Hormuz policy money.

Prices fall back later yesterday after Patrician's defence minister said the US and Iran were “close to some sort of arrangement” over the chart.

By the end of the trading day in London, Brent made the global oil benchmark, advanced 10-year cost to $88.50 per barrel. US market West Texas interresident against 11-year cost to around $85 per barrel.

Prospects for a quick reopening of Hormuz have directed further with President Trump one demanding comparison from recent year. Tehran is sticking to its own conditions around sanctions, the US blockade and reparations," said Evelyne Gomez-Liechri, each-under-stronger at Petalina.

Government bonds strengthened slightly, paying back their earlier losses and pushing yields lower as the oil price fell.

Traders were waiting for all important inflation data due today to assess the likelihood of an interest rate rise at the US Federal Reserve in September.

Oil prices edge higher as investors await US-tran deal

Marubek Gomez-Liechri said markets were in “an awkward trading position” ahead of the US inflation date, given the recent grind higher in oil prices.

Trades in 10-year oil girls fell 3 basis points to 4.97 per cent while the interest rate-sensitive two-year yield fell 3bp to 6.32 per cent as traders bought the debt. The 10-year flavor yield to Germany still 2bp to 5.06 per cent while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3bp to 6.48 per cent.

Stock markets were stable with Wall Street's blue-chip S&P 500 index slipping 0.2 per cent and the tech-hours Hoisting 100 also down 0.2 per cent by lunchtime

in New York. Across the Atlantic, the pan-regional Stock Europe 600 index was flat. Here’s the oil industry 10 per cent. Frankfurth's Intra-Duo rose 0.3 per cent and Lonbeco FTSE 100 fell 0.2 per cent.

“The dog days of summer are here, characterised by this volume, narrow index means and a lighter average flow,” wrote Joe Petalina, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab.

The Japanese yen was stable at 9.93% in the dollar. The dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies while the euro was unchanged at $176M against the US unit. Madeleine Wright

Markets update

	US	Europe	Japan	UK	Other	Brands
Stocks	S&P 500	Eurofirst 300	Nikkei 225	FTSE100	Shanghai Comp	Boompa
Level	77m 37	264.15	6497.0 22	5364.19	3936.09	6826.63
% change on day	-0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.8%	-2.2%
Currency	$ index (D/F)	$ per €	Yen per $	$ per €	Perk per $	Red per $
Level	99.81	1354	1592.62	1.351	6.76	5.141
% change on day	0.0%	-0.01%	0.97%	-0.04%	0.0%	0.80%
Cost: bonds	10-Year Treasury	10-year-Bund	10-year JUB	10-Year GB	10-year-bond	10-year-bond
Yield	6.69	3.95	2.81	6.96	1.72	16.70
less cost change on day	0.0%	-0.01%	0.0%	-0.01%	0.0%	0.0%
World / Commodity	FTSE All-World	UK World	UK-WTI	Gold	Silver	Merit&S/MEX
Level	758.31	88.77	83.91	6381.01	64.8%	5629.65
% change on day	-0.1%	2.2%	1.2%	0.6%	-1.2%	0.7%

Main equity markets

Biggest movers

US	Eurozone	UK	FTSE 100
Equity Global Paper	4.9%	Hoist, Holding	1.0%
NH & Co	4.1%	Maruti	1.0%
Euro money	4.2%	Genesis Energy	1.0%
Trendline	4.8%	Genesis	1.0%
Equity Global Co	4.5%	Adidas	1.0%
Maruti Boompa	4.7%	Asia, Chemie	1.0%
Oracle	4.6%	Deferrin	1.0%
Intrus	4.6%	Interstate Holding	1.0%
J&T Technologies	4.2%	World Bank	1.0%
International B.V.	4.3%	World Bank	1.0%

Equities

Volatility slides to near lowest in years as traders shrug off Middle East risks

JOB ENTRY, ONLY HOBBY AND BARRAY HOLDERS • LONDON

Measures of volatility in stocks and currencies have installed this summer in some cases close to their lowest levels in years — sparking warnings that investors have become complacent over the threat of renewed disruption from the unresolved conflict in the Middle East.

The Via index, a barometer of implied stock market volatility known as Wall Street's “low gauge”, sank below 10 this week, far below its long-term average and a level last seen before the US truss our began in late February.

Similar measures of expected volatility in major currency pairs, such as euro-dollar, have sank near to multi-year lows, according to indices provided by derivatives giant CME Group.

The low cost of volatility suggests investors see little chance if a flare-up in market tensions, even as hopes fade for a swift reopening of the thrash of this—max, driving oil prices back to nearly

$90 per barrel and government borrowing even in some big economies within touching distance of their highest in years.

“Markets are showing a degree of complacency ... assuming that depreciation and cooler heads in this [Middle East] conflict will prevail,” said Kephart Thule, head of capital markets.

‘Markets are showing a degree of complacency ... assuming de-escalation and cool heads will prevail’

strategies at Tikeless Capital. The Via climbed as high as 30 during the early stages of the conflict and saw a smaller increase during last month, heavy will all at just as they reach.

But it quickly fell back as global equity markets recessed their march higher this month.

Institutional investors were “selling volatility” as an additional way to profit

from the rally, said Matt Rowe, a senior portfolio manager at Plant Group.

With the US Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates just once or twice over the next year, traders said the cautious reaction of central banks to big swings in crude loss also helped to calm markets and suppress currency volatility.

Traders “have been learning to live with developments in the Gulf”, said Chris Turner, head of global markets at ING, adding they were taking the view that interest rate changes by central banks “will be modest rather than the start of major new tightening cycles”.

Tikeless Thule said higher oil prices and rising government bond yields were “among the most important threats to the market” at the moment but said investors had been reassured by the “excalation” ability of the global economy to absorb the energy shock.

But this could go wrong if a sustained period of higher energy prices starts to weigh more meaningfully on growth just as they stole inflation.

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Wednesday 12 August 2026

•

FINANCIAL STER

15

MARKET DATA

WORLD MARKETS AT A GLANCE

Change during previous days's trading (%)

JAP '20	Nasdaq Corporation	Doo Jones' Inc.	FTSE Inc.	FTSE Surofnet	Nikkei	Hong Song	FTSE All World	3 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6 per €	6

AMERICA

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16

•

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2024

MARKET DATA

FT GLOBAL 500: THE WORLD'S LARGEST COMPANIES

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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. 99.

2. 2017年1月1日，公司与上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司签订了《关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理的协议》。

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Wednesday, 12 August 2018

•

FINANCIAL TIMES

17

FINANCIAL TIMES SHARE SERVICE

Main Market

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AVERAGE DAILY
Total Revenue	2,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.75	22.41	101.17
Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

AIM

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AIM (Total)
Total Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

Investment Companies

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AIM (Total)
Total Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AIM (Total)
Total Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AIM (Total)
Total Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

	Price	+ 30 (%)	% of Total		1st	2nd	3rd	4th
AIM (Total)
Total Revenue	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17
Revenue (Total)	1,000.00	0.0	1,000.00	1,000.00	1.37	22.78	101.17

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18

●

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2024

MANAGED FUNDS SERVICE

Algebra Investments

Registered
Algebra Core (Acs) / EUR	4	224.04	0.00	0.00	25.15	10.12
Algebra Core (Acs) / EUR	4	235.63	0.00	0.00	25.21	11.24
Algebra Financial Credit / EUR	4	228.13	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Credit / GBP	4	255.75	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Credit / USD	4	213.53	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / EUR	4	183.63	0.13	0.00	0.23	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / EUR	4	200.52	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / EUR	4	223.09	0.00	0.00	27.38	30.38
Algebra Financial Equity / Acs / EUR	4	233.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / Acs / EUR	4	263.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / Acs / EUR	4	287.18	0.12	0.00	10.23	10.38
Algebra Financial Equity / EUR	4	215.15	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / EUR	4	234.98	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Financial Equity / USD	4	200.52	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Global Credit / Speed经济cr / EUR	4	152.94	0.14	0.00	0.04	0.42
Algebra Global Credit / Speed经济cr / EUR	4	168.24	0.13	0.00	0.01	0.00
Algebra Global Credit / Speed经济cr / GBP	4	154.68	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra Global Credit / Speed经济cr / USD	4	150.66	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00
Algebra & Financial Credit / EUR	4	139.68	0.14	0.00	0.04	7.71
Algebra & Financial Credit / EUR	4	118.82	0.15	0.00	0.00	7.18
Algebra Strategy / Credit / Acs / EUR	4	116.25	0.14	0.00	4.00	0.00
Algebra Strategy / Acs / EUR	4	157.72	0.23	0.00	10.64	10.37
Algebra Global Equity / Series / EUR	4	102.14	0.14	0.00	14.15	14.48

Brown Advisory Funds PLC

http://www.brownadvisory.com Tel: 0312 5321 0130

FSA Recepted
Global Capital Fund (GCE)	2	22.28	0.01	0.00	1.41	11.48
Global Capital Fund (GCE) 2	2	10.51	0.02	0.00	2.21	2.83
Global Sustainable Total Return Share (GSP)	2	9.47	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
Global Sustainable Total Return Share (GSC)	2	10.51	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
US Equity Growth Fund (GCE)	2	70.74	0.02	0.00	6.52	11.72
US Facility Equity Fund (GCE)	2	42.28	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00
US Well-Sup Growth Fund (GSC)	2	25.08	0.06	0.00	0.07	11.87
US Well-Sup Board Fund (GCE)	2	22.51	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
US市值收益 (GPA) (GPA) (GPA)	2	44.75	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
US Sustainable Global Fund (GCE)	2	41.18	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00
US Sustainable Value Fund (GCE) (A)	2	15.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

(HK)

Aldeoan Report #1(a)	4	144.46	0.02	0.04	0.14	2.54
Capital Savings Portfolio (SIP)	4	89.41	0.04	0.06	0.16	2.48
Capital Savings Portfolio (SIP)	4	105.35	0.04	0.06	0.20	2.41
Debt Fund (Co) (A)	4	152.29	0.14	0.00	1.40	4.57
Debt Antigen (SIP) (A)	4	94.23	0.12	0.04	0.06	4.15
Next Return (Co) (A)	4	102.63	0.06	0.05	0.15	2.31
All notes (A) and Next Funds	4	109.41	0.12	0.02	0.04	0.00
Other Investment Funds	4	109.41	0.12	0.02	0.04	0.00
Other Investment Funds	4	109.41	0.12	0.02	0.04	0.00
UNACD (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UNACD (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Other Fund (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Canaccord International Food Managers Limited

No Total: 4.27 (Adjusted) 0.7 (Min. Level): 22.2 (Min

v4.02 (1.00 / 50 / 100 / 200) = 40.000 / 60 / 100 (100)

Canaccord Health International Multi-Strategy Funds Limited

Biotocont Strategy	2	1.19	0.00	0.00	12.46	11.72
Biotocont Strategy A	2	1.14	0.00	0.00	1.44	1.67
Cardinal Biotocont Strategy	2	1.45	0.00	0.01	0.70	0.21
Cardinal Biotocont Strategy B	2	1.68	0.00	1.04	1.23	1.24
Covert Strategy	2	0.95	0.00	0.75	1.02	1.04
Covert Strategy A	2	1.25	0.00	0.04	1.07	11.45
High Growth Strategy A2	2	0.87	0.00	0.74	10.30	10.46
High Growth Strategy B	2	1.36	0.00	0.02	1.74	1.70
High Income Bond Fund (HBI) (A)	2	0.99	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
High Income Bond Fund (HBI) (A)	2	1.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
US Growth Strategy	2	2.06	0.00	0.21	16.32	16.31

Starting Funds, Initial Change (for the 4-yr period ending by 5-25) for other classes.

CIS Asset Management Limited

10 King Street, London EC3A 9EX

Emerging Tel: (020) 9181 8000 Fax: (020) 9181 0000

FSA Management

CIS Portfolio Fund PLC

Aldeoan Report #1(a)	4	144.46	0.02	0.04	0.14	2.54
Capital Savings Portfolio (SIP)	4	89.41	0.04	0.06	0.16	2.48
Capital Savings Portfolio (SIP)	4	105.35	0.04	0.06	0.20	2.41
Debt Fund (Co) (A)	4	152.29	0.14	0.00	1.40	4.57
Debt Antigen (SIP) (A)	4	94.23	0.12	0.04	0.06	4.15
Next Return (Co) (A)	4	102.63	0.06	0.05	0.15	2.31
All notes (A) and Next Funds	4	109.41	0.12	0.02	0.04	0.00

Chartered Asset Management Pte Ltd

Other International Funds
UNACD (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UNACD (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total: (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

CP Global Asset Management Pte Ltd

www.cgbm.com.au / web: website: jagapc@agbam.com

International Mutual Funds
CP Global Strategy Fund	5	483.24	0.02	0.00	10.46	12.16

CP Capital Asset Management Limited

www.cgbm.com. Asset management@agbam.com

International Mutual Funds
CP Food Finance Fund	5	215.98	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
CP Global Equity Fund	5	305.37	0.15	0.00	11.60	13.61
CPI (Retailer Finance Fund)	5	512.16	0.02	0.00	11.17	13.82

Bodge & Cox Worldwide Funds

Bodges & Cox Worldwide Funds
Non-FDA Public Limited (NFC) (A)	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
www.bodges.com	4	1,000.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Bodges & Cox Worldwide Funds Emerging Markets Stock Fund

Investing Markets Stock Fund A (US) (A)	5	16.27	0.01	0.00	28.00	23.15
Investing Markets Stock Fund B (SIP) (A)	5	16.47	0.02	0.00	29.67	21.90
Investing Markets Stock Fund C (SIP) (A)	5	15.26	0.01	0.00	25.01	19.55
Investing Markets Stock Fund D (SIP) (A)	5	17.86	0.01	0.00	28.38	22.55

Bodges & Cox Worldwide Funds Global Stock Funds

SVF (Accounting) Class	4	48.00	0.02	0.00	0.24	4.15
SVF (Accounting) Class I/II	4	12.20	0.04	0.00	4.21	4.53
SVF (Stockaging) Class	4	11.28	0.02	0.00	1.44	4.69
SVF (Stockaging) Class I/II	4	1.04	0.02	0.00	0.24	4.23
SVF (Stockaging) Class	4	11.41	0.05	0.11	1.25	1.58
SVF (Stockaging) Class I/II	4	6.44	0.02	0.11	1.22	1.35
VCS (Accounting) Class	4	15.41	0.06	0.00	5.36	6.69
VCS (Stockaging) Class I/II	4	7.64	0.02	0.00	2.96	3.71

Bodge & Cox Worldwide Funds Global Stock Funds

VCS (Accounting) Share Class	4	58.34	0.12	0.00	11.21	18.44
CVF (Accounting) Share Class	4	61.44	0.11	0.00	10.88	15.22
CVF (Stockaging) Share Class	4	39.02	0.07	0.00	11.36	12.15
CVF (Accounting) Share Class	4	65.77	0.08	0.00	12.11	13.61
CVF (Stockaging) Share Class I/II	4	21.15	0.05	0.00	14.56	16.91
VCS (Accounting) Class	4	30.87	0.06	0.00	15.36	16.77
VCS (Accounting) Class I/II	4	30.48	0.12	0.00	10.51	10.36

Bodge & Cox Worldwide Funds US Stock Fund

VCS (Accounting) Share Class	4	61.68	0.23	0.00	14.17	17.53
CVF (Accounting) Share Class	4	71.23	0.24	0.00	14.12	15.53
CVF (Stockaging) Share Class	4	44.52	0.14	0.00	10.88	15.01
CVF (Accounting) Share Class	4	60.63	0.11	0.00	9.12	10.98
CVF (Stockaging) Share Class I/II	4	22.22	0.05	0.00	12.20	13.49
VCS (Stockaging) Share Class I/II	4	22.97	0.05	0.00	12.95	16.04

DRAGON CAPITAL

Blue Whole Investment Funds (CAF)

www.brownacover.com/cs/ab/greenwells.cfm

FOA Management Limited (AOC)

Blue Whole Growth (BCC)

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Wednesday, 12 August 2024

●

FINANCIAL FUNDS

73

MANAGED FUNDS SERVICE

Fund	Bid	Offer	Fund	Date	Date	Fund	Bid	Offer	Fund	Date	Date	Fund	Bid	Offer	Fund	Date	Date

Fundsmith Equity Fund

Fundsmith LLP (1280)

PO Box 10000, Queensland, Queensland 0000-0000 1230 1210 1010

www.fundsmith.co.uk, unspread@fundsmith.co.uk

Authorised for Funds

Fundsmith Equity Fund	714.00	2.12	0.00	1.25	2.27
Fundsmith Equity Fund	645.04	1.72	0.00	15.40	1.00

GUINNESS GLOBAL INVESTORS

Guinness Global Investors

Guinness Global Equity Fund (1280) No	4	25.77	-0.03	0.00	8.52	10.28
Guinness Global Investors (1280) NCI	4	41.59	-0.01	0.00	11.45	17.88
Guinness Global Equity Net Cap Y (Up) Acc	4	16.08	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

HPS Assurance Ltd

Post/1st Group (Bart 1st) (English, Ive & New Art, 2020-02/08)

International Assurance

Holding Property (Bart 1st)	4	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.41	0.41
Holding Property (Bart 2)	4	0.85	0.00	0.00	1.40	1.14

Janus Henderson INVESTORS

Janus Henderson Investors

PO Box 8021, Queensland 0000-0000 (Inquiries 0000-0000) 1527

www.jenushenderson.com

Authorised for Funds

Janus Henderson Industrial Equity Fund A-Acc	208.00	0.12	2.19	0.41	0.12
Janus Henderson Financials A-Acc (Bart 1st)	80.10	0.12	0.44	10.86	0.37
Janus Henderson Financials (Bart 2nd) A-Acc	100.00	1.45	3.60	8.23	0.88
Janus Henderson Financials (Bart 3rd) A-Acc	100.00	0.42	3.00	2.57	2.00
Janus Henderson Group (Bart 4th) A-Acc	1200.00	10.00	0.19	10.40	0.15
Janus Henderson Emergency Services A-Acc	1007.00	4.23	0.00	21.46	14.43
Janus Henderson Group, West (Bart 4th) A-Acc	200.00	0.00	0.00	10.63	10.00
Janus Henderson Company (Bart 5th) A-Acc	0.71	1.15	0.13	0.00	0.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 6th) A-Acc (Bart 6th) A-Acc	1000.00	0.43	0.00	11.00	10.53
Janus Henderson Financials (Bart 7th) A-Acc	17.57	0.23	0.19	0.21	0.24
Janus Henderson Global Equity Net Fund	80.10	0.14	0.44	10.86	0.13
Janus Henderson Global Equity Fund A-Acc	1007.00	10.00	0.00	11.00	10.00
Janus Henderson Global Equity Equity A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson Global Equity (Bart 1st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 2nd) A-Acc (Bart 2nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 3rd) A-Acc (Bart 3rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 4th) A-Acc (Bart 4th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 5th) A-Acc (Bart 5th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 6th) A-Acc (Bart 6th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 7th) A-Acc (Bart 7th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 8th) A-Acc (Bart 8th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 9th) A-Acc (Bart 9th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 10th) A-Acc (Bart 10th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 11th) A-Acc (Bart 11th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 12th) A-Acc (Bart 12th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 13th) A-Acc (Bart 13th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 14th) A-Acc (Bart 14th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 15th) A-Acc (Bart 15th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 16th) A-Acc (Bart 16th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 17th) A-Acc (Bart 17th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 18th) A-Acc (Bart 18th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 19th) A-Acc (Bart 19th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 20th) A-Acc (Bart 20th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 21st) A-Acc (Bart 21st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 22nd) A-Acc (Bart 22nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 23rd) A-Acc (Bart 23rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 24th) A-Acc (Bart 24th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 25th) A-Acc (Bart 25th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 26th) A-Acc (Bart 26th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 27th) A-Acc (Bart 27th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 28th) A-Acc (Bart 28th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 29th) A-Acc (Bart 29th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 30th) A-Acc (Bart 30th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 31st) A-Acc (Bart 31st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 32nd) A-Acc (Bart 32nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 33rd) A-Acc (Bart 33rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 34th) A-Acc (Bart 34th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 35th) A-Acc (Bart 35th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 36th) A-Acc (Bart 36th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 37th) A-Acc (Bart 37th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 38th) A-Acc (Bart 38th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 39th) A-Acc (Bart 39th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 40th) A-Acc (Bart 40th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 41st) A-Acc (Bart 41st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 42nd) A-Acc (Bart 42nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 43rd) A-Acc (Bart 43rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 44th) A-Acc (Bart 44th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 45th) A-Acc (Bart 45th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 46th) A-Acc (Bart 46th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 47th) A-Acc (Bart 47th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 48th) A-Acc (Bart 48th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 49th) A-Acc (Bart 49th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 50th) A-Acc (Bart 50th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 51st) A-Acc (Bart 51st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 52nd) A-Acc (Bart 52nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 53rd) A-Acc (Bart 53rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 54th) A-Acc (Bart 54th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 55th) A-Acc (Bart 55th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 56th) A-Acc (Bart 56th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 57th) A-Acc (Bart 57th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 58th) A-Acc (Bart 58th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 59th) A-Acc (Bart 59th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 60th) A-Acc (Bart 60th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 61st) A-Acc (Bart 61st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 62nd) A-Acc (Bart 62nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 63rd) A-Acc (Bart 63rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 64th) A-Acc (Bart 64th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 65th) A-Acc (Bart 65th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 66th) A-Acc (Bart 66th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 67th) A-Acc (Bart 67th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 68th) A-Acc (Bart 68th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 69th) A-Acc (Bart 69th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 70th) A-Acc (Bart 70th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 71st) A-Acc (Bart 71st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 72nd) A-Acc (Bart 72nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 73rd) A-Acc (Bart 73rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 74th) A-Acc (Bart 74th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 75th) A-Acc (Bart 75th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 76th) A-Acc (Bart 76th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 77th) A-Acc (Bart 77th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 78th) A-Acc (Bart 78th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 79th) A-Acc (Bart 79th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 80th) A-Acc (Bart 80th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 81st) A-Acc (Bart 81st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 82nd) A-Acc (Bart 82nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 83rd) A-Acc (Bart 83rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 84th) A-Acc (Bart 84th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 85th) A-Acc (Bart 85th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 86th) A-Acc (Bart 86th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 87th) A-Acc (Bart 87th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 88th) A-Acc (Bart 88th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 89th) A-Acc (Bart 89th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 90th) A-Acc (Bart 90th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 91st) A-Acc (Bart 91st) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 92nd) A-Acc (Bart 92nd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 93rd) A-Acc (Bart 93rd) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 94th) A-Acc (Bart 94th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 95th) A-Acc (Bart 95th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 96th) A-Acc (Bart 96th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 97th) A-Acc (Bart 97th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 98th) A-Acc (Bart 98th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 99th) A-Acc (Bart 99th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00
Janus Henderson (Bart 100th) A-Acc (Bart 100th) A-Acc	1100.00	0.43	0.00	10.00	10.00

National

African American Capital (African) (CET) Bart 1st Bart 2nd Bart 3rd Bart 4th Bart 5th Bart 6th Bart 7th Bart 8th Bart 9th Bart 10th Bart 11th Bart 12th Bart 13th Bart 14th Bart 15th Bart 16th Bart 17th Bart 18th Bart 19th Bart 20th Bart 21st Bart 22nd Bart 23rd Bart 24th Bart 25th Bart 26th Bart 27th Bart 28th Bart 29th Bart 30th Bart 31st Bart 32nd Bart 33rd Bart 34th Bart 35th Bart 36th Bart 37th Bart 38th Bart 39th Bart 40th Bart 41st Bart 42nd Bart 43rd Bart 44th Bart 45th Bart 46th Bart 47th Bart 48th Bart 49th Bart 50th Bart 51st Bart 52nd Bart 53rd Bart 54th Bart 55th Bart 56th Bart 57th Bart 58th Bart 59th Bart 60th Bart 61st Bart 62nd Bart 63rd Bart 64th Bart 65th Bart 66th Bart 67th Bart 68th Bart 69th Bart 70th Bart 71st Bart 72nd Bart 73rd Bart 74th Bart 75th Bart 76th Bart 77th Bart 78th Bart 79th Bart 80th Bart 81st Bart 82nd Bart 83rd Bart 84th Bart 85th Bart 86th Bart 87th Bart 88th Bart 89th Bart 90th Bart 91st Bart 92nd Bart 93rd Bart 94th Bart 95th Bart 96th Bart 97th Bart 98th Bart 99th Bart 100th

Parcines Investment FAs (UK) (1280)

Net Fund	2nd	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th
Net Fund	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Net Fund	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
Net Fund	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th

Parcines Investment FAs (UK) Ltd

Net Fund	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
Net Fund	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th
Net Fund	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th

Royal London

UK National Group, London (CEN)

Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th

Additional Funds Available

Passes are made available upon 15th March

Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Net Fund	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th

Ruff

Ruff

Ruffin LLP (1980)

Net Fund, Central Square, Wellington Group, Leeds (CEN)

Ruffin Trust and Insurance (CEN) (BCN)

Authorised for Funds

Authorised Corporate Director (Meyers Management (UK) Limited)

Net Ruffin Trust (Norton) (UK) 1000.00 0.00 1.75 4.00 2.20

Net Fund

Total Investment Funds

Total Investment Funds	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Total Investment Funds	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Total Investment Funds	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th
Total Investment Funds	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th

BSCI (Czech) (UK)

BSCI (Czech) (UK) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

BSCI (Czech) (UK) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

BSCI (Czech) (UK) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

BSCI (Czech) (UK) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

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20

•

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 13 August 2024

ARTS

How gamers fell for 'friendship'

From 'Big Walk' to 'Among Us', a new generation of multiplayer games prioritises socialising over competition. By Chris Allmutt

A warning precedes the latest adventure from Australian game developer House House. "Big Walk is a game about talking to your friends," reads a screen the first time you host it up. But, it continues: "No voice calls. No talking face-to-face. No looking at other players' screens." What it wants you to do instead is use the in-game voice chat, which allows you to speak to characters near your own, but quickly reduces them to a distant echo as you move further apart.

That matters in a game that relies on co-ordination as much as Big Walk does. You play as a cartoonish and faintly ant-like troupe of spindly limited creatures setting out on the titular big walk, a journey across an island of lively landscapes and gentle puzzles. It is a journey wholly without explanation or back-story, which means that the tone is set by your group dynamic and that the only dialogue you need focus on is your own.

Within 10 seconds of starting we lose one of our group in the night-time darkness that has enveloped the island. A few minutes later another tries (unsuccessfully) to swim to freedom off the edge of the map. Unable to communicate with them until they return, we must make do with waving our arms or flashing lights to attract their attention.

We do know an important lesson, though: anyone can interfere with what anyone else is doing, which creates a fine line between co-operative gameplay and light-hearted sabotage.

It's this fine line that pushes Big Walk into the realm of "friendship" – an ugly but often affectionate term for a popular set of games whose enjoyment derives primarily from the interactions with the people playing alongside you, rather than the gameplay itself. Originally coined on social media to describe a kind of anime, the label reflects a growing desire for light-hearted, low-priced,

communication-driven experiences. Not every multiplayer game is friendship, of course. The label applies to games where friends aren't just present in your adventures, they define them. They rely on what developers call "emergent gameplay" – the unscripted consequences of design choices.

In Big Walk you are only able to change the look of your character through a paintbrush swirled by another player. Given that you experience the game from a first-person perspective, you have to take their word that they've painted you the colour you asked for. And if they haven't, there's nothing stopping you from giving them a bricking yellow makeover in return. It is an early test of your group's cohesion, but one just as likely to feel suspicion as it is interdependence.

One of the earliest games to march under the friendship banner was 2018's Among Us. When Marcus Bromander and Forest Willard, co-founders of US developer Innercloth, used to play Mafia as students, they found their homes too small for the deception-based party game. Among Us was designed to let the same dynamics of deduction and deception play out on a virtual spaceship.

Players find themselves divided into two teams: crewmates and imposters. The crewmates can win by completing tasks to fix the spaceship and identify, in the imposters, the imposters can win by preventing the tasks from being completed or killing crewmates.

There's not a great deal of complexity in the game itself. So brightly coloured 2D settings and point-and-click mechanics instead shift the focus to your friends' ability to convince the group of their guilt or innocence. This plays out at regular meetings where players must vote each other out after trying to justify their behaviour.

Willard admits to a fondness for the friendship label. "A known issue with

'An issue with massive multiplayer games is you will end up with toxic players. Being able to play with friends tempers that

Left: in 'Big Walk', your group plays a troupe of spindly limited creatures who must journey across an island, solving puzzles along the way: below, 'Among Us' recreates the deception of the party game Mafia on a virtual spaceship

massive multiplayer games is you will sometimes end up with some toxic players, and being able to play with friends tempers that issue," he says. "Today's social games know you with an experience of playing with your friends that is as good as your friends are, not as good as the community around that game."

In Agger Crab and Landfall Games' 2025 release PmR, the only way you can play the game is with friends. There is no lobby browser (a list of public games you can join), and no queue that will match you with random players. The result is that when your group of scouts crash lands on an imperdubly vertiginous island, as it does at the beginning of every session, it will be composed of players you know and trust.

Emphasis on issues, really, because the first time a companion fails to help pull you up the final stretch of an especially difficult rock face, you will start to develop trust issues. The aim is to get through five daily-changing climbs that lead to a summit where rescue awaits, but gravity isn't the only thing standing between you and the top. There is vicious wildlife, poisonous berries – even a possessed scoutmaster who will appear if you abandon your friends, cleaning you until you reunite with them. This means there's little incentive to go it alone, even when your climbing partners are armed with tantalum bogies and paralysis-inducing blow-darts.

Big Walk goes one step further: most of its puzzles – which demand an entertaining mix of observation, dexterity, memory and exploration – are impossible without the participation of the other players, and it will even scale them to the size of the group.

Just as in PmR, there is no way to play Big Walk with strangers, since you need to be friends with someone to invite them to your lobby. In these games, it's not about the friends we made along the way – it's about spending time with the ones we already have.

'Big Walk' is not now on PC, PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch 2

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Wednesday 12 August 2020

EPH-UNLEAD, YORBA

21

FT BIG READ. ASIA EMPLOYMENT

Over 50mn Chinese are now employed in the gig economy, often at very low wages. But concerns are growing that sectors such as food delivery and ride hailing cannot continue to absorb new workers.

By Thomas Hale and William Langley

China's great job's squeeze

A Shanghai's Pudong Airport, it was overshadow, in Beijing's Nanning, it was right and at Tianfu in Chengdu, it must be his 10.

In the absence of official statistics, a straw pull on the length of time that drivers are willing to wait for a face at airport last week offers a glimpse of the risks of the 10.

'I go [home] to shower, do laundry, and then drive back to the airport to queue,' says Hsin Fung, a licensed taxi driver in Guangzhou, who regularly keeps overnight in the car while waiting for leave. Another driver, in Shanghai, adds that before the pandemic, it was 'people waiting for cars ... now it's cars waiting for people'.

China's unprecedented economic expansion, from around 1980 until 2020, was underpinned by the migration of hundreds of millions of people from poor rural areas in its interior to work in the factories and construction sites around its cities.

But amid a prolonged real estate boot, a consumer downtown and the persistent spectre of deflation, those job prospects are now fewer in number. In their place, a gig economy of ride sharing drivers and delivery counters has been making up China's surplus labour.

The labour market has long been at the heart of the social contract between China's government, eager to maintain stability, and a vast population yearning for economic betterment.

Today it is under strain as rarely before, while flexible work has served as an economic escape valve, it too now risks becoming overloaded by more people than it can provide jobs for.

The economy as a whole is struggling for momentum. Consumer confidence has been unbiased for years and an official index tracking it has been

'[Gig workers] often face lower income stability, weaker labour protection and incomplete social security coverage'

Engaged down by pessimistic about job prospects, As China's property slowdown grinds through its 60th year, metrics ranging from investment to retail sales how we are working on full-to-levels reached during the lockdown of 2022.

Against this backdrop the gig economy - described by one economist as 'an immense shock absorber for the Chinese labour market' - is being scrutinized for signs that it is also reaching the limits of its capacity.

As of 2015, more than 70mn people work as food delivery or ride sharing drivers in China, up 10mn in two years, estimated the China New Employment Forms Research Center, a think-tank affiliated with Beijing's Capital University of Economics and Business.

'I think there's certainly a vast expansion in gig jobs,' says Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HMC. 'We have potentially more more gig workers employed than there's a need for gig workers.'

In the longer term, China's shrinking population may offset the impact of slower economic growth, recent numbers of graduates and accelerating automation in its manufacturing sector.

But for now, the workers are increasingly bearing the brunt of what the international Labour Organization last year described as 'polarisation' that has intensified since 2016. In some sectors, there is no enough work available, whereas in others there are long hours, though these may 'scratchly effect your job quality'.

Jack Linzhou Xing, an assistant professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, says the market since an approaching ten years where gig work incomes become undeniable. 'Iud submits known what would happen then.'

Don, the Guangzhou taxi driver, could join 2020, China's equivalent of Uber,

but says it's 'troublesome' on the ride-hailing platform, where working for up to 15 or its hours at a time can result in accidents.

'It is tiring, but there's no other way,' says a ride-hailing driver in Shanghai, who declined to be named, of the long working days. 'This's just how the environment is now.'

I is hard to discern these trends from China's unemployment statistics, which show an exclusively urban jobless rate that has scarcely deviated from 1990 until in years.

Even in a country whose official data is widely questioned, labour market numbers offer little insight. Other than the urban employment rate, which ignores anyone returning to a country's side population that numbers hundreds of millions, there are only a handful of other relevant metrics.

'In all the other economies I look at there is a huge range of employment data,' says Paul Lively, founder of consultancy East Asia Econ, citing series such as participation rates. 'The kind of analysis that would be possible for another market around employment will just not be possible in China.'

Annual figures at least confirm that the total labour force, which pushed at over 800mn in 2015, is shrinking as the population declines. This should in theory benefit workers in line with the 'Lewis Turning Point' at which rural workers are fully absorbed into cities. Wages should rise sharply, with implications for inflation and consumption.

Instead, China flirts with deflation and suffers weak consumption plus a slowdown in urban wage growth, which on one measure hit a record low of 3.4 per cent in 2015. 'I would say the demand for labour is falling faster than the supply of labour is declining,' says HMC's Neumann, citing automation's factories, the property slowdown and the use of unspecified drugs of 4.0.

For these reasons flexible employment, an official term that is vaguely defined but implies a broader scope than gig work, has come into greater focus. It would at 200mn in 2022, according to an official estimate that included part-time work and self-employment as well as 'new [forms of] employment'.

Traditional sectors such as manufacturing and construction have long incorporated flexible labour as the country transformed itself from a state-run economy over decades.

The 10.0 notes that China does not publish data on part-time work, defined as lower than 24 hours a week, but says that new technologies and labour market discharge mean 'work number are becoming more flexible overall.'

China New Employment Forms Research Center has estimated that flexible employment will hit 20mn this year, up from 200mn last year. Its report provided figures for what it termed 'blue collar' work in selected sectors, including food delivery and ride-hailing drivers, for whom it said heavily wages rose and fell respectively last year.

Andrew Batson, China research director at Cavelock, an economic research firm, suggests flexible employment and gig work are 'more of a symptom of broad-based labour market weakness in China than a totally independent development', even if technology has aided the growth of platform workers.

'Because aggregate demand is low, the bargaining power of workers is weaker and they have to accept more underemployment and less favourable working conditions,' he says.

The consequences are on full view in the town of Shijiazhu, south of Beijing, which hosts an informal live labour market each morning.

Just after 6am one Friday last month, more hopeful of finding work had already gathered during numbers. One 34-year-old had previously worked as a driver, but quit because the hours were too long and now only works around 10 days each month.

Ma Yudha, a 54-year-old construction

Flexible work has been making up China's excess labour, but now risks becoming overloaded by more people than it can provide jobs for. Right: a group of delivery riders near Shijiazhu Village in Guangzhou

Source: China's flexible employment

has risen in recent years

Estimated flexible employment

(see people)

600

1,000

1,000

China's flexible employment

has risen in recent years

Estimated flexible employment

(see people)

400

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

China's urban unemployment

rate has remained around 5% in recent years

Urban unemployment rate (Q)

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

workers, typically works in demolition and makes about Rm$500 (R$15) in an eight-hour shift, but he only worked five days in the past month and has not been able to afford to return home for hours now year for years. 'It's bad, really bad,' he says. 'Negative factories don't want workers of our age any more. We can only take temporary jobs.'

Delivery riders in Shijiazhu Village, a scrappy lower-city area of Guangzhou that lies next to the city's planning office Shiahu, have the opposite problem.

Jack Wang, a 20-year-old rider in Shijiazhu, a place known locally as the King of Orders, says he need to get by working nine hours a day, but now needs to do it as a minimum because two on orders

have fallen by as much as a third since he started six years ago. 'You have to work about 40 per cent harder now,' he says. He earns Rm$6,000 Rm$4,000 (about R$90 R), 2000 each month.

Gig workers' labor has lower income stability, weaker labour protection and incomplete social security coverage compared with traditional employment, likely dampening consumption appetite', thanked Chartered economists said this month, adding that the official unemployment rate 'leads a strong underemployed and discouraged workers.'

That has not stopped workers from legacy industries taking up temporary work in Shijiazhu. But long, a 20-year-old delivery rider from the southern province of Guangxi, says he worked in construction for more than a decade, where he could regularly earn more than Rm$10,000 (R$2,000) a month, plus board and lodging. But he quit two years ago following months of unpaid wages.

The same about Rm$12,000 (R$2,920) a month, but he also says he is per order have declined by around a fifth since he started just over two years ago. Around half a dozen delivery riders in the country said their face had also fallen, with the most precarious of them reporting earnings of about Rm$12,000 (R$300) a month after.com.

'Gig workers' labor has lower income stability, weaker labour protection and incomplete social security coverage compared with traditional employment, likely dampening consumption appetite', thanked Chartered economists said this month, adding that the official unemployment rate 'leads a strong underemployed and discouraged workers.'

'Gig work is drawing in graduates, of whom there are more than 10mn entering the labour market this year, as well as offering options for migrant workers. 'I didn't really know what to do after graduation, so I just started delivering food right away,' says Chen Tanna, a 24-year-old graduate of business management who was coaching a batch of new services as Shijiazhu Michigan.

He earns about Rm$12,000 (R$2,920) a month, but he also says he is per order have declined by around a fifth since he started just over two years ago. Around half a dozen delivery riders in the country said their face had also fallen, with the most precarious of them reporting earnings of about Rm$12,000 (R$300) a month after.com.

smoking a cigarette while perched on a black mopot. 'If the price drops too low, there will be more discomfort ... they'll constantly adjust to people.'

The rise of gig economy platforms in the US and Europe has long fuelled concerns over exploration of workers, especially after economic shocks such as the global financial crisis of 2008—indeed opportunities in other sectors. But it also provides an example of how conditions can change if job-syning is become while the number of available workers falls.

'When the labour market tightened, the supply of Uber drivers drank and gelatinize Uber rides were way up,' says Cavelock's Ratson. 'The actual reason there had been so much flexible employment was because people did not have any better options for the macro situation,' he adds. 'The same thing will happen in China, if and when the labour market ever tightens.'

Such a tightening would depend on major shifts, including the eventual impact of a declining population, the affecting effects of automation and 4L which could eliminate manufacturing jobs, and overall economic momentum.

In contrast to the overall labour force, urban employment in China is still rising but its growth can has slowed its growth from 1990 to 2000. The workers on a net basis in 2020 compared to increases of time of millions each year before the Covid-19 pandemic.

'This form to factors [movement] has been such an important driver of growth – if that has slowed, it's a real headwind,' says Steven Barrett, a pro-

Tony, a top-level stabilisation in domestic demand, very quickly you could get a situation where wages start to rise'

These are Hong Kong University and former China head for the IHC

Neumann at HMC suggests long-term prospects are brighter. 'The demographics work in the background, continuously reducing the supply of labour ... if you're going to develop a new domestic demand, very quickly you could get a situation where wages start to rise.'

Even if urban demand for labour is weak for two, returning to the country's 6th in recent years, it is an integral problem. 'It's a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem

'If you do get stabilisation in domestic demand, very quickly you could get a situation where wages start to rise.'

Even if urban demand for labour is weak for two, returning to the country's 6th in recent years, it is an integral problem. 'It's a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is

'If you're going to develop a new domestic demand, very quickly you could get a situation where wages start to rise.'

Even if urban demand for labour is weak for two, returning to the country's 6th in recent years, it is an integral problem. 'It's a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is a problem that is

Data: Unpublished by Haohuang Ke

---

22

•

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 11 August 2024

The FT View

FINANCIAL TIMES

Without fear and without favour

R.白炽生供稿

Arday case poses awkward questions for Cambridge

For Britain's elite universities, governance issues add to funding woes

The University of Cambridge, ranked one of the world's best, prides itself an academic legacy. Yet rigour appears to have been rather lacking from its 2023 appointment of Jones Arday as social-craft professor – who at 37 was the youngest Black professor in the university's history. Arday has resigned amid accusations of plagiarism and embellishment of the record. The scandal comes as a particularly awkward moment, when Cambridge and the UK's elite universities as a whole are groppling with a series of governance, operational and financial challenges – some of their own making, others the result of years of government policy.

Arday has denied deliberate plagiarism or lying about his achievements. But the episode raises serious questions

over how Cambridge and other elite universities vet candidates for senior posts, including verifying their credentials, past academic posts and published work, and how they respond when they come uneasy. The university initially ignored plagiarism, claims against Arday as a "site-issue campaign to undermine the credibility". Apparently, a Times Higher Education journalist who sent questions to Arday was favoritely and thought of the fact that he had said to stop contacting the academic.

Ensuring diversity of background and thought in the academic community is an important cause. But the Arday case risks financial focusing on financial, for its honesty goals and doing a disservice – other academics from minority groups. Cambridge has said an internal publichat's investigating the circumstances around his appointment and tenure, and will lead them to review of the papers most processes. But it should be able from donors of its own academics for an independent inquiry including academic

ics from Cambridge and elsewhere, to avoid the university "marking its own homework".

Cambridge's great rival, the University of Oxford, has had a number of shows. A 2023 review at Christ Church called for a sweeping re-elected of the 500-year-old college/governance, after a local with a former draw that cost £4,000 in legal and public relations fees. Some other members of the Board of the Intertop universities have said an experienced governance controversy.

The focus on top British universities' governance, appointments and diversity policies – as well as their handling of the search house – carries a 2023 Donald Trump you scrutiny of 1/6 universities. Yet while the Trump White House has used threats to withhold but end funding as leverage to exert more control over the 1/6 academic, UK universities are grappling with many years of financial understanding.

The capping of annual domestic tuition fees for years after 2022 has left us

Ensuring diversity of background and thought in the academic community is an important cause, but the case risks financial focusing on official for industry goals

vaccine now making energy losses of £4,700 per year on domestic students. That's ability to cross-subsidize costs by charging higher fees for international students has been an excellent post 2024 visa restrictions on dependents caused despite 2/4. If you send an international investment, Research-initiative universities, especially those in the top ten, have mourned the hearship by a shift of public field funding away from the government science towards applied research.

The new government of Andy Burnham made its acknowledged the importance of Britain's reserved universities to the 2023 international research force but as a verifying of scientific innovation, and currently putting them on a sustainable financial funding. But universities can strengthen their care for labor funding by showing a greater commitment to modernize their governance and the development of the functions. Every Arday-type case opens the whole wave to attack by its critics.

Opinion Environment

How to stop global warming: a simple guide

Pilita Clark

For UK is braving for its 100% business in four months this week and so far have been lucky.

A few sleepless sights left me feeling totally, and I couldn't send chocolates to a friend because the company passed shipments to world-fathering fluorides away.

But I did not have to look after kids sent home from a roaring classroom. I was not evacuated to energy a wildlife. I didn't run out of water, or hot about a falling crop, or end up in hospital with heatstroke.

What a relief is would be if there were some way to stop the furor-sibling up to towards even more dive heat and fire to the future.

As it happens, there is, the prime for growing in some. Two words, the first one starts with it. That's right. Not sure, the start the world would be in if

It requires dedicated ideological belief to argue against the evidence that

not zero is vital

carbon dioxide emissions ever such to such low levels that any left over were absorbed by two or various up by machines or otherwise removed from the atmosphere.

Scientists have understood for years that not zero is the point at which global warming stops, sweating weapons turns come rising. As Jim Hoss, chair of the world's top climate authority, the Intragovernmental Fund on Climate Change, told me this week: "If you want to stop global warming, you must get to not zero carbon emissions. If you don't get to not zero, the world will continue warming, and all the things we're seeing at the moment will get more intense and more chafing up. That's back all the chaos."

For the record, the chances of eaching out zero soon are remote. We have been preparing out more than 50m tonnes of carbon dioxide from being in good fuels such year for most of this century and, while emissions growth has slowed, it has yet to permanently decline.

Remember that the next time you read that an "no-order" like foreign secretary Ed Hilliard has a "magician" education with what the Reform UK party calls "not stupid now".

This is gasfighting of the highest order. The truth is, it requires dedi-

cated ideological belief to argue against the scientific evidence that not zero is needed to stop ever more expensive and destructive warming.

The same point for the idea that not zero is like, say, highway beautification: nice to have if you can afford it, but otherwise easily deferred. No. The longer we wait to reach not zero, the higher the eventual goals temperature will be, and the worse the associated damage. Warming is now nearly 1.45 above per industrial levels. Imagine summers when it gets closer to 20.

And please don't say your country's not zero efforts are pointless when it only accounts for a few per cent of global emissions. The capital, who, when you're able to make its dozens of countries, even though their combined emissions exceed China's.

Still, reaching not zero was always going to be arduous. Energy transitions are one and generally take place in history. The capital, who, when you're power shift being attempted today is the first of its kind to human history.

Renovables won't automatically lower all power prices. But opposition leader Scott Badenoch's claim that not zero targets make energy more expensive and "history" industry is equally misguided.

The evidence from Europe and US states suggests wholesale electricity prices are lower in places with more renewable and, consequently, the paradox not frequently set the market prices. Retail power prices don't necessarily fall with more clean energy, but they can't fill in any retrocurand to spread costs and markets are unbiagned.

If you think otherwise, it's no surprise, considering the dramatic change in the way not zero is covered by the UK media. In 2016, when climate action still had bipartisan political support, researchers say 90 per cent of articles mentioning not zero also referred to climate change or a similar term like global warming, by 2019 that figure had plunged to just 63 per cent.

No wonder polls have shown support for more urgent action has been held, even if a significant majority still want a net zero target of at least 2030.

It's even worse on TikTok and Instagram, where younger people in particular get stuck if their news. On these platforms, fewer than 10 per cent of posts about the 1% have been won by the main TV broadcasters mentioned climate change. So alone not zero.

Views may change after this useful summer, but what really needs to shift is political thinking. The cost of climate action comes far ignored, but as soon the time of reaction, they must be people can debate the best way for work. Bilateral, ideological studies will cover get as anywhere.

piltra.clark@ift.com

Letters

Paying herders to graze sheep is cheaper way to fight wildfires

Your report on this year's 43, the first still 7 European wildfire costs this year have already surpassed CNet. Before August 6 counts the ashes accurately, but it misses the political economy that is producing them.

The EU has quietly pooled the cost of fire when Romania leaves, Europe's shared fleet of water herders is scrambled and the EU's disaster itself helps pay for what is left. Prevention, by contrast, stays undivided, discretionary and invisible, because no minister has ever won an election for a fire that did not happen. So leaves are shared while precaution is not, and the

incumbens run exactly the wrong way. Officials I have spoken to in Athens, Barcelona and Madrid describe the result from insider scrub-chasing, firefighting and herding such as with a different ministry, and nobody owns the problem end to end.

The next EU budget will approach rather than the link. A telephone roughly 5,000m between Germany, then leaves the prevention to compete inside 17 separate national envelopes against regional aid, migration and debate. Another states may choose to fund grazing in fire-prone bills, but none is obliged to, and none has much

reason to protect its neighbours' forests rather than its own budget. The European Union's political Policy has been dying for 30 years, and

deservedly so. Nothing here asks for that policy back. What it asks for is the machinery the public knows behind, payment agencies in every member state, a digital register of every field in the states, and whether that already check farmers' claims automatically, without an inspector climbing a mountain.

From that machinery at a different object. Costs and sheep eat the dry scrub that turns a spark into a

florotum, and they are the cheapest furthest in wildlife members. For better, the European government, namely billiards kept clear when fire modelling your 4 numbers, with skills and most offsetting part of the cost, they the public good, not the output.

Northern taxpayers will eat food sunflower leaves morners. They may well have the same again as the other. The costs they are already carrying. Fire is a shared cost. Precaution should be a shared purchase.

Professor Yannis Karagiannis Institut200@eat.2024, Barcelona, Spain

Britain and Ukraine can make Europe a force again

Your Big Road article about its unlargement: August 7's describes very well the difficulties faced by the European Commission in dealing with the ambitions of so many countries and the frustration that are suffered by many worthy applicants as a result of long delays in the process. The situation poses real threats to the unity and strength of Europe in the face of Russian aggression, Chinese mercenaries and American indifference.

There is a solution however. In my most "Second-Street's, a New Deal for Britain, Ukraine and Europe" published last week by Simeon, I propose the creation of "European Confederation" which would provide the "outer ring" that European leaders have discussed as and after the decades of leadership with the rest of Europe. The benefits of European integration but not all giving upness in the single market for goods (and acceptance of its sales) but no rights to agricultural support, an expensive youth opportunities scheme but no right of free investment.

Britain would be invited to join in exchange for a commitment to spend 12 per cent of its GDP on defence and share the benefits of its military capabilities with the rest of Europe. Ukraine would be invited to join as a staging post on its way to fall a membership of the EU in exchange for a similar commitment to share the benefits of its defence pressure with other European countries.

The world has changed shortly since the World vote in 2016. Our approach must change with it and so must Europe's. Together we can create a new Europe where a European

Contribution features the strength and simplifies the influence of the EU and makes Europe again a force to be reckoned with.

Nick Bode London SE1, UK

US-UAS ties rest on more than the before-talk dollar

Alispal Nussleiner's Big Road on how this 18sde wave over Washington August 10 it is well-reported, and the questions it takes about investments, according to the business in general. The Emiratic access to some of the US's most advanced computer data – are legitimate and diverse answers. The explanatory frame, however, is moreover than the subject.

The article attributes Washington's current position to the US's ambassador's skill and a decade of lobbying quest. It concludes the institutional story beneath.

The six bases, 10 Dhaka and Jebel Ali, offer American bonus access

EAAV

unavailable elsewhere in the region. In September 2024, though the first state visit to Washington by a UAS president, the US-Braggard-like UAS a "major defence partner," a status Congress had previously conceded only to India. Last year, both defence ministries signed a letter of intent to build that state a working partnership. This was named through having, retrospectibility and operational risk, not hospitality. The chips decision is likewise presented as a favour rather than a regulatory regime. Reclassification within the export administration architecture alters licensing presumptions across many technologies for years, not just one transaction.

The serious question is whether the accompanying safeguards on business localisations, personnel voting and the source of a Chinese equipment hold. Your correspondent presents two sets of assertions and adjudicates zealists. Trade is absent altogether. American goods experts to the UAS conduct a business decision to be a member of the billion billion, leaving the US with a $22 billion surplus, its fourth largest anywhere in the world, according to the Office of the US Trade

Representative. In a promotional Washington, that is a two to double political asset that any lobbying contract, and it explains behaviour at least as well as the influence frame.

The exacting for the article, finally, is drawn almost entirely from one city – Washington. Anonymous homes, officials and two Democratic senators advance the argument.

The Republican objection, which concerns exposure to Chinese technology rather than influence, is the question sensitive one and goes unheard.

Rebirth of Chikara Country Director, United Arab Emirates World Agriculture Owner (Netherlands), Dubai, UAE

Unfair to export families to solve the care conundrum

Christina Baroni letter "Why problems aren't able to land their parents' care" (August 11) and Trevor Lyttleman "Adult children are part of the social care debate" (Leiters, August 2) both expose an important question for any discussion on social care: what can society reasonably expect families to provide?

Families about provide extraordinary amounts of care, often at considerable pressure and financial cost. A new settlement should make it easier for them to do so, but hardly should it cannot become the funding model.

Unfair to export families to solve the care conundrum

Some people have children nearby who are able and willing to help. Others have children struggling with housing costs, children we all health, or living hundreds of miles away. A greater chance of the children, leaving the US with a $22 billion surplus, its fourth largest anywhere in the world, according to the Office of the US Trade

The case for sharing risk is stronger precisely because none of us knows whether we will need little support or years of intensive care.

As fair settlement therefore cannot match by asking whether someone has children who can care or pay. It must start with what every citizen should be able to count on, what individuals should reasonably contribute, and which they do to agree to share.

We should help families care. We should leave some decent care (beyond on having a family able to do it, Mr. Hase had Burchen

Former Minister of State for Care Wolfram, East Korea, UK

Hong Kong clubland antics

As a founding member of Hong Kong's Carlyle & Co club one is peripheral by the author of the Hong Kong Golf and Tennis Academy towards our members amounting to over 10 more city club (Koper's, August 4, 1

The study of the situation is not who paid more for their membership, or its original exclusivity. As in the financial history of the 2024 world, 1992 US members need look no further than Pocage's, another "secret society" club operated by New World Development, the latest property company, which was forced to close. At 1992 US, Senior Dong has elected, weighing around 10,000,000, allowing revenue from Carlyle & Co to be spent to avoid a similar but not the loss of all membership benefits.

Mark Pusher Hong Kong

Imagine homes built using mycelium-based materials

I read with interest Andy Haldane's four pillar plans to fix Britain's housing crisis (Opinion, August 6). I agree that we desperately need to transform methods of housing construction.

It's time to move beyond stalled government attempts at modular housebuilding, instead turbocharging innovations. We need a great leap forward to how building can help incorporating intelligent, regenerative, and highly efficient materials, and enabling interoperability, lift printing, and robotics to create faster and more efficient systems.

Currently, our materials are "dead" – they depend on certain. Why not invest in multifunctional housing stock that is all requiring, carbon capturing, and energy generating?

The chemistry is itself known out of "Wolfram mycelium, a new biometrical to beal cracks or adjust thermal mass and energy, or its transform homes into energy harvesters and water-surface exists; we just send manufacturing capabilities, skills development and inventory to create the best to scale.

It wills our repair themselves and credit our pressure given, the built environment transform home as asset to a safety.

With our government funding now ways to build and maintain our homes, the US could become a global leader in a new era for the housebuilding industry.

Kathy Neftekine Director of Data, Challenge Works and Services, of Australia, of London's infrastructure advisory panel, London E14, UK

Shorts and matching stockings were de rigueur

141 men's rightness experience for shorts wearing indoors at work during her mother to his Citizen of Western column in Life's Arts had me smiling ("Shorts wearers of the world, under", JTV Weekend, June 27).

Reverend has me answer as to how we have respectable things so, and, on a much larger scale, another Africa, and to a lower extent East Africa, has an another.

Then, the artist said – successor to the old colonel Paul Leche and shorts, were by more junior officials – came to be a common work against all or the second world war, whether with long or short reasons.

If the latest, then matching stockings were de rigueur, with whichever today's success, we have been able to

Nothing looked quite as ridiculous as wearing shorts at work with short socks, as so many do in the US.

ADRI Lehtonen Bernard Carlin, Country Darbutt, UK

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Wednesday 13 August 2020

8

FINANCIAL TIMES

23

Opinion

Europe's carbon mechanism is a tariff by another name

Andrew Puzder

In 2016, the US began imposing tariffs on real and aluminium property under Section 252 of the Trade Expansion Act to maintain a strong domestic industrial base — a national security imposition. It has since become more and more 'derivative' products such as machinery, equipment, factories and structural components containing most or aluminium. The EU has denounced these measures as violating the US-EU Framework Agreement on Trade and demanded their elimination by year back.

Yet, the EU has announced its own border charge on many of the same goods through the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The EU calls CBAM a climate measure keyed to state and aluminium content, but a tariff in order to testify a different name. Protecting against US national secu-

rity measures while erecting protection for payment structures, a driving double standard. If the EU objects its America-adjusting by policies for domestic protection, it cannot credibly defend its own parallel adjustment — especially while accusing the US of breaching a bilateral deal in its self-undermining.

The US appears in direct and transparent, Primary steel faces a 25 per cent tariff (with some cases recently increased), and aluminium a comparable duty. To stop its intervention through standard goods, the tariffs extend its derivatives. This measure distills US producers from import surges caused by state subsidized over capacity, particularly from China — the same market distortions that led the EU to impose a 50 per cent tariff on世紀 imports.

CBAM differs in form but not in substance. Importers of iron, steel, aluminium and related products must report embedded emissions and rebounded a corresponding number of CBAM certificates period at the EU's carbon price—currently around 450 per ton of US, direct emissions from extruded aluminium production are immediately sub-

ject to CBAM, with credits available if a carbon price results in the processing country (there are some in the US).

Shell and aluminium are among the most carbon-intensive materials. Traditional filant furnace production generates heavy (15), emissions — to CBAM adds a significant cost to improved products under its scope. While it targets specific products rather than every

Erecting protectionist barriers while decrying US national security measures reveals a double standard

downstream item, its scope includes primary forms, semi-finished goods, sheets, heat and structural shapes — the building blocks of many derivatives.

At cost, both policies are adjustments in protect domestic producers from unfair competition, whether from las environmental rules or subsidized excess capacity. US Section 252 tariffs address foreign overcapacity that

threatens to hollow out its metals secures lower production, constitute carbon storage, when production shifts to jurisdiction—with less stringent climate standards. This double European companies from the EU's own Emissions Trading System, which levels heavy carbon penalties on energy transfer to tobacco and aluminium, its both cases, the measures raise the cost of imports to safeguard local production.

The parallels are unmistakable. A statement of steel containing machinery from the US does not mean no metal content. In the EU, the same goods face fees based on production emissions under CBAM. One is framed as security policy; the other as climate policy. Both increase the price of targeted imports relative to domestic options.

The US now attaches August 2020 Framework Agreement, which capped more EU exports in the US at 5 per cent tariffs while granting many US products duty-free access to the EU. European officials argue that expanded US derivatives tariffs trends this 15 per cent ceiling, justifying the price of inflation ahead of the Framework Agreement's tariff

concessions. Yet the EU is simultaneously reducing CBAM after existing rules. Adding knuth to injury, while the US has its good faith significantly reduced the number of derivative products subject to Section 252 tariffs, the EU plans to expand the products subject to CBAM.

The contrasted in the US's Framework commitments and broader effects to reduce industrial tariffs towards new and intensive new tariff barriers: CBAM substantial, double EU producers while reducing shipping imports lacking capitalized carbon pricing. It mirrors the carbon-branchs condemns in the US. A fair standard should apply: if border adjustments are illegitimate as both of national security, they are illegitimate as each of the border criteria.

The US can't itself as defender of rules based trade against crude protectionism. But attaining the US for supposedly breaching the Framework Agreement while advancing CBAM erodes its credibility.

The writer is the US ambassador to the European Union

Humans cannot be submerged in the AGI car

What will happen to humanity if we invest an electronic intelligence source (Erason school)?

I've recently attended two engrossing, if annoying, events debating our post-human future at which dozens of seriously smart AI researchers, academics and philosophers grappled with what this might look like. This baseline assumption is that, within a few years, we will attain artificial general intelligence (AGI), where technology will manh humans across every cognitive task.

At that point, argue Daniel Engglin, the AI researcher who heard both discussions, humanity's aim should be to ensure we create a worthy successor. 'A post-human intelligence are capable and soundly valuable that you would gladly prefer that it (not humanity) determine the future path of life itself.'

Such talk is becoming increasingly common within tech circles as the industry's leaders become more bullish about when they might achieve AGI. Once reached, the thinking goes. AGI would enable machines to create still smarter machines, leading to an even

more powerful post-human superintelligence. As these debates about AI's future battle ahead, the public is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of change and deal with the technology's growing impact on their own lives.

Last week, Sir Martin Hamelin, the co-founder of the AI research lab Google (longthis), said that we have arrived at 'a pivotal moment in human history.' 'I've been working towards AGI my whole life and now, like many of you, I don't in clear at heart,' he wrote in a mini-tube employees, explaining his move to become chair and focus on this task. Managed well, AGI would today in an 'incredible new age of discovery and wonder'.

In July, Elon Musk, who runs the AI model company's AI training the many other entities, also predicted that AI might exceed the sum of human intelligence in about five years, leading to an age of 'amazing abundance'. However, he did not return his earlier forecast that there was a 10 per cent to 20 per cent chance that a superintelligence in the hence of 'little+white' could pose an existential risk to humanity. In spite of his earlier efforts to drive the pace of AI development because of the risks, he now seems to have concluded it is hidden on to try. 'It just seems that all roads lead to the acceleration of AI,' he told the Economist. 'Let's stop the risk.'

This sense of fatalistic inevitability about the evolution of AI triggers something approaching despite among many other researchers and, increasingly, it seems, the public. Tech companies are

making critical decisions about our collective future based on speculative narratives without any kind of social variation. The growing public textbook against the AI companies is the natural consequence of this failure to address people's present concerns about the impact of the technology, whether it be on their jokes or the environment.

Last year, the AI Now Institute, an independent research institute, published a stinging critique of the mythology that had grown up around AGI. The term was so loosely defined as to be almost meaningless. Very argued. The majority of AI researchers did not think that the current obsession with scaling long-keeping models, such as ChatGPT or Clustic, would ever get us to AGI. And much of the hope surrounding both the

Companies are making critical decisions about our collective future without any social mandate

promise and the perils of AGI, the authors argued, was a cynical marketing gimmick to help tech companies raise different dollars in funding.

The AI Now Institute is surely right that allowing the leaders of AI like to dominate the conversation about the future of the technology marginalizes experts from all other disciplines, who have indispensable insights into how it can be best used in the real world. 'We vating AGI over other paths to solving hard problems is just a supercharged form of technosubmissions,' the institute concluded.

Naturally, in his latest essay on AI, published this week, the Meta chief executive Mark Dschafenegger passed a technological solution to technosubmissions. Yet even if the point is partial and will serving, he may not be wholly wrong.

Dschafenegger argued that AI could give individuals phenomenal technological capabilities akin to 'personal superiority'. 'The only way to ensure adherence to human values is by giving people more power,' he wrote.

But, though useful, the people's power cannot solely be exercised through the use of cool tools. It must concern the governance of the technology itself. Civil society organizations, democratically elected politicians, labour unions and regulators must also use their legitimate powers over how AI is deployed. Even the leaders of the AI companies now recognize they have to engage more with these institutions if they are not to lose the trust of all their users.

The benefits of the AI transformation might well be enormous, even if they are as yet mostly unproven. But in the meantime, the rest of society cannot remain passive passengers in the back of the AGI car. Like children on a hot holiday trip, frustratedly asking are we there yet?

The AI companies are intent on driving humanity to a destination that has not been fully discussed, for alone agreed. It is time for the rest of us to acquire more agency over our human future.

jobs.thorellid@ifi.com

Will failure in Iran reshape how the US fights?

Jacquelyn Schneider

When the Iran war began to February, the consensus view was that the country's middling military and weakened

regime were uniquely vulnerable to the new of long distance, high tech war that America's perfect to fight. Rattneval of artificial intelligence, smart machines and electronic technologies, and robotics and stealth aircraft, many observers assumed the US could favor Iran to acquiesce to its demands — all with relatively few domestic repercussions.

At the time, Likertified outcomes that would indicate that this American style was a major factor in the world's victory, conflict that digresses into such a shining exercise or growth, warfare; unattainable economic costs. 'What's the world today?'

Operationally, the US dominated the

first six months. It conducted more than 12,000 strikes, differential the Iranian air force and much of the Iranian navy, maintained the supreme leader and a major leader in the Arabian Gulf of Gaeel (G-eqh, kadashag), and blockaded ports. The war devastated the Iranian economy, with immediate impacts on inflation, resource scarcity and an estimated 420000+$300bn in rebuilding costs.

The US has not been able to re-decisively. Hardiness remains in power in Iran. The future of its nuclear programme, probably damaged by Israel's 10 strikes, is unclear. Negotiations in the hostilities of the Arabian Gulf continued to launch missile strikes at US forces and support in the region. Shipping through the threat of firearms, and new the facilities, remains a halt.

US strategic success may be unclear, but the operational cost is easier to calculate. The US has been able to get at least 424 standard. This number is far smaller than in general, while in it Iraq, Afghanistan or Vietnam but far larger than the USA but major air-dominated combat in the Balkans in the 1990s.

In this war, 42 aircraft have also been lost or damaged, including four F-35s, an F-35, an F-2 and more than 20 firearms in comparison, the US lost only one — for many of the other three years of air conflict in the Balkans). Operations in Iran have cost the Portugal $72.5bn, with an additional $8.9bn to rebuild the Middle East by 40 dangerously low levels (as well as potentially another 40bn to repair damaged landfifteen in

Success will be determined by whether keep range wars can insulate leaders from the wrath of public opinion

the region). The chief economist of Moody's Analytics assumed 'the typical 1970s basehold will pay $2,000th because of the need for a 1980s-2000 global export military spending or in rising fuel costs. By all measures, then, Iran is a failed case for the American way of war. However, success is not primarily determined by battlefield effects, but by

whether long-range, high-tech wars can insulate decision makers from the wrath of the American people.

Outcomes on the battlefield are make sense to the people with resistance, but not always. The 50 Offensive during the Vietnam war demonstrate how the US could beat back the Vietnam and yet lose American support. The Korean war, on the other hand, created very little public outrage even as thousands of USs like most nations don't — as much of how Americans can become insured to Iran, implicate the upmarket, even, in the face of failure.

Riding suggests most Americans die of the war. The US is not (even ignoring percentage of Donald Trump's by-ditch), but this is. If one is in general or by the public disruption, 'there have been no mass protests, no mass compliance from withal the military, from the death of, then's full-range pilot in the Arabian Sea down on the island.'

The stock market, despite some days, is boasting and off prices have come down. The US military budget is still dominated by expensive specialism, millions delivered by destroyers and

stealth players, which are difficult to scale or quickly adapt. In some industrial systems are focused on decreasing personalise demand of decreasing outcry operating new systems. The US has been to sit in the US to see it is still in need of the large supply of high-impact energy.

Perhaps the earliest will be in November, when uniform elections reveal whether the public will penalize fingers. Scams for initiating the conflict, dissent and the situation, it is highly unlikely that Congress or the White House will change how they expect to see the American military.

That will have to be the veteran of this war in two years. The US has, therefore, a victory, manpower and weapons systems. Vietnam veterans were able to significantly change the US military, ensuring the US Volunteer Force and changing the American history of victory, partly because they believed the public was willing to do their own efforts accountable. It's unclear today if the average America are on a scale.

The writer is a Hoover fellow at Stanford University

For prisons to work, we need to look at what goes on inside

James Twycutt

The prisons crisis has cast a shadow over the optimism of Andy Rumbach that low levels in power as public outrage faced the govern-

ment to put the pathy of early citizens under the leadership of the United States. By 2026, designed to cut prison numbers, hard to run some into force. The prisons minister, James Timpson, resigned on the day the new prison minister took office.

There is a simple and unavoidable dilemma: the President (Power) gets leave prison early, more stay in for longer. Overcrowding remains a major issue. Advocates for holding more prisons are offering decade-long answer to a problem that is here and now. If we are ever to reduce our prison population we need to start asking what is actually happening inside them.

The miserable truth is that many of those who are released will own return. The bill for taxpayers is many, with the Ministry of Justice, starting the case of reoffending at more than 4,200 a year.

I have visited most of the prisons in England and Wales. They are not nice places to be. Prisoners spend enormous amounts of time locked up with little to do. More should receive education, some skills and best use comparable. Figures from the Ministry of Justice show that those who complete distance learning courses are 21 per cent less likely to reoffend, and those who find work within six weeks of release are much less likely to reoffend — 10.2 per cent compared to every beginning 36.1 per cent for those who don't.

Inmates who complete distance learning courses are 22 per cent less likely to reoffend

Learning and skills teams in prisons are capable of inspiring meaningful change. But prison education budgets are not a priority for prisoners and annual funding has fallen. Planned core education hours in public sector prisons in England have been cut by 31 per cent since new contracts began last October. In a significant fall on the Mariner government record.

Prisoners often arrive with very low qualifications and a poor school record. The Prisoner Learning Alliance told a parliamentary inquiry in 2020 that nearly two-thirds of inmates have been used from school and 43 per cent had been excluded. Prisoners do not eagerly sign up for educational courses.

But in an increasingly digital world, there are solutions. Use of these lies with using them as a gateway. The game is already popular among inmates, just as a game can reach the far side of the board and transform into something powerful, chose can be the first step that carries a person from where they are towards who they might become.

One follower bests the engineer at chess at the times on the laptop he was given. The confidence from this took him to writing and exploring functional skills courses. He says the game lifts him and takes his mind off his mental health issues. From there can come a credit card and, for some, even a degree. Motivation is not a precondition of prison education. It is the product of it.

My company, Coracle, supplies the secure office laptop these inmates use, so I have an interest here. The numbers, though, are not mine. An independent prisoner, who has been ready to conduct to Treasury Green Bank standards across the prisons, found a return of £16 for every £2 spent on these devices, with employment living the statistically significant costs over £1.

The next challenge comes at the public gate. We began noticing more than returned to custody asking for a laptop as they could contain the course they had abandoned on their release. Asked why they stopped, the answer was about. The individual who was no computer at home. We now work with a charity. Rationals in India takes corporate laptops at the end of life and passes them to prison houses and children with a parent inside. It costs the taxpayer nothing.

The problem is worth how long prisoners spend inside. It is just as important to settle what these years are for.

The writer is founder and CEO of Coracle, an education technology company

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24

FINANCIAL TIMES

Wednesday 12 August 2020

Lex.

John Gapper Solar farms are key to the national grid but pose new challenges BUSINESS INSIGHT

Intel investors are banking on a comeback — and then some

When is a good time for a company to raise equity? When its shares are expensive, according to financial loss. Intel, which said on Monday that it would issue at least $10bn of new stock, is following that rule to the letter.

Its shares trade at nearly $10 times forecast earnings for the coming year, according to LMG data — higher than at their peak before the 2000 tech crash. The question is who would buy at such a price.

True, this is not the Intel of old. The US chipmaker, once an industrial icon known to handshake for its “total mark” slogan, endured years of dashed hopes and wasted investments.

Under the leadership of Lip-Bu Tan, who replaced the Hollywood old Pat Geisinger in March 2015, the company has cut headcount by a fifth, sold maker in substitution, trumpeted an alliance with Elon Musk’s Yula and —and recently reined its capital expenditure.

Intel has been helped by trends unrelated to Tan’s stewardship. The spillover of AI masts, from high-end GPU chips into the CPU that Intel makes for servers and data centres, has transformed demand and pricing. Kival AMD said recently that it thinks the market for such chips could be $220bn by 2050; months earlier it had forecast roughly half that.

Tan is not sucks where the new fund will be spent. But among his broad of divisions, Intel’s foundry is the bungalow. The goal is to grow orders to make and package other companies’ chips, a business that

Lip-Bu Tan became Intel chief executive in March 2015

brought in just $50/ton of outside revenue last year. Some analysts — including those at Intel Interformer Goldman Sachs — think that could top $20bn by 2050. Getting there means cooperating for unique foods, becautious analysts predict capital expenditure will hit a record $20bn in 2017. This is, in one sense, going back to

The US chipmaker, once an industrial icon, endured years of dashed hopes and wasted investment

the future. Geisinger wanted to bring in $10bn of external foundry revenue by 2030, and three lashing of investment at his target.

Tan’s odds are better. Global chip shortages aside, Intel’s shareholders include chip giant Nvidia and the US government. While not a guarantee of business, that gives companies such as Apple and so-called AI hypercrufers a

gentle show in Intel’s direction. Nonetheless, investors are buying into the $10bn capital raise with some generous assumptions.

Imagine Intel like Goldman’s foundry revenue estimate by 2050, that the company’s data center business triples by then, and that PCs return to their peak revenue from 2025. That would total $220bn of sales.

Apply a hypothetical 60 per cent operating margin, which Geisinger hoped to achieve for the non-foundry business by the end of the decade, isn’t it, and it suggests earnings of around $40bn.

In that happy scenario, Intel’s current market capitalisation of about $300bn would equate to more than 12 times 2030 earnings, roughly where Taiwanese chip-releases TSMC and larger rival AMD trade, according to Visible Alpha. These are challenging comparisons. Tan’s task now is to make Intel’s insides match its highly valued outside.

Education providers can strike university deals that make the grade

Education may be falling out of favour with students, but investors are studying the sector with alacrity. Among them is Galileo Global Education, Europe’s biggest for-profit higher education group, currently cycling up acquisitions among struggling British universities.

Britain’s tertiary education sector offers rich pickings. Unlike the US, where most universities are privately owned, virtually all are “exempt charities” — they provide a public good without the need to register or report to the charities’ marketing. Many are in deficit, with usual prospects to turn their fortunes around.

Hence Galileo, which bought Regent’s University London in 2020. Or take Global University Systems, sweeping on the University of Law a decade ago. GUS claims over 374,000 campus students over 30 institutions.

Bull-ups make sense. Efficienties come from shared bank office services like IT, marketing and student recruitment. In the US, Arizona’s Grand Canyon University announces such services to a Nasdaq bond vehicle, Grand Canyon Education, which supports several institutions.

Private universities do lack the clout of their non-private peers while often charging more. Regent’s University London, owned by Galileo, charges an annual $24,500-to-students of subjects such as fashion design — more than double the two domestic students pay at non-private universities.

Prestige is also diluted by tax entry requirements. GUS owned University of Law requires exam results two to four notches below that for low courses at top-ranked universities. Reputation matters too: Regent College London, unrelated to Regent’s University, was picked up by regulators for a handful of failings in 2024, including offering courses that were neither up to date nor effectively delivered.

Still, realizing value need not be all about cutting headcount, courses or professors, all of which are happening in spades to British universities whether profit-seeking or not.

Offering specialised but relevant courses is one alternative, some may be

School’s out

Education MSA from 2020-25 (number of deals)

Source: MacDonnell

more inclined to pay up if degrees lead to a job. Providers can also crag the benefits of research and intellectual property needed in their institutions by creating spin-off groups, particularly where they can bring their own financial issue and contacts to bear. It’s not hard to see why financial buyers are born. From struggling universities often come with real estate that can be monetised, predictable revenue streams from on-the-ends, as a long term trend towards more money spent on education.

When trouble strikes, who shadow banks the shadow bankers?

When banks pulled back from US mortgage lending after the financial crisis of 2008, shadow banks, who beat but don’t take deposits, offered a solution. But sometimes even shadow banks need a bit of creative help.

United Wholesale Mortgage got into trouble last week, disclosing a hedging mistake that cost it more than $600mn. Its saviour, Oaktron Capital, another non-bank lender that sits on $227bn of assets and has swamped in, leading a 8.8bn issuer-financing package.

UNM and its main post, Rocket Mortgage, have become marketers of the US homebuying scene. They offer loans through consumer facing brokers and finance companies. Rocket also deals with consumers directly. They then sell these loans to agencies such as Fannie Mae that securities them.

Specialty finance companies like UNM say they offer better customer experience than banks. They still own banks — their loans are funded by credit lines from traditional lenders. But non-bank lenders in the US now account for two-thirds of mortgage volume, up from just 20 per cent in 1999, Federal Reserve data shows.

Where UNM digged up was its reality taking out a big hedge to guard against falling rates as it prepared to buy a mortgage servicing company. The acquisition fell through, and since rates remained elevated, the outstanding hedge saddled the company with a big loss.

The ability to weather the occasional custard pie to the face, thanks to vast diversified businesses, is what distinguished giant lenders from their shadowy sources. UNM’s shares have fallen nearly 90 per cent since it went public in 2015. Its market capitalisation probed at $5Mbn immediately after its defeat.

Oaktron, like most alternative lenders, knows an opportunity when it sees one. It has taken preferred shares with a 10 per cent coupon, which rises if UNM chooses to pay interest in kind rather than cash, and warrants convertible into around 10 per cent of the company.

That should take UNM now until the housing market stabilises, albeit at a high cost to its shareholders — and Oaktron meanwhile gets paid to wait. It’s hard to imagine an old school lender being so less smarting as UNM or as clever and opportunities as its insurer. The rise of non-bank lending is creating challenges, but at least it also provides solutions.

No place like home

Number of US residential mortgages issued in 2020 (1000)

Source: Bankers, Lending Notices, HPRN dataset

NIKKEI Asia The voice of the Asian century

CROSSWORD No 18,450 by MONK

Solution 18,449

JOTTER PAD

ACROSS

1 Critical (2019 act resolved — this'll go round the globe (16)) 2 Only extremely loathsome art from the east (5,3) 3 Second mouth organ found on white guy who deals illegally? (4-5) 4 Game for abandoning cold blue cheese (7) 5 Jot piece for US port (7) 6 Mobile home agent working as a solicitor (3,5,6) 7 National almost brings in European local (5) 8 Excessive work held back primate (5) 9 Projectile is following low sets out (9) 10 Serial killer's second, false, nationality (7) 11 Man's brother takes in Silver City (7) 12 Delivered welcome change where sacrifices maybe made (6,5) 13 Giant artist missing an island (5) 14 New unopened Red with plastic micros (10-10,5)

DOWN

1 Fully expert English (PAI), claims local fake (3-10) 2 Retaliation from Italian stronghold in shelled stars (5,3,5) 3 Breach of trust at last entering clean apart after exchange (7) 4 Unspoken diplomacy surrounding India (5) 5 Clear the ground around wide part of vehicle (9) 6 Having no time at all, dump-fired's port (7) 7 Broad Dave's sidekick before Mike (5) 8 Former US prison service voided a Conservative peer's charge sheets? (7,8) 9 Plant in Beirut, capital, regularly damaged (9) 10 Urban Roman, nailed by a dry performer (9) 11 Old wild ass pulled up herb (7) 12 Pookin mother leaves in a manner of speaking (7) 13 Dress supportively revealing half of godle? (5,2) 14 Run into something with teeth — one little dog (5)

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